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How close is a takeover really...? (1 Viewer)

  • Thread starter standupforcity
  • Start date May 27, 2017
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standupforcity

Well-Known Member
  • May 27, 2017
  • #71
Esoterica said:
Oh thank god you're ok. I was so worried about you after they released Lameiras. I'll let Interpol know you're alive and well!!
Click to expand...
You made me laugh btw....
 
D

dongonzalos

Well-Known Member
  • May 27, 2017
  • #72
Polar said:
Maybe vastly oversimplifying...but the reason SISU hang on looks clear to me.

If you agree with the view that the club has significant debts, then it makes complete sense that SISU don't want a quick sell.

Even if they owe 40 million to their creditors, it is a 'good' debt if they are able to make small operating profits year on year (which they have been doing through cutting costs and player sales).

You could take the view that they are trying to take very few financial risks, and just get that small, slow burn year on year profit. The debt will come good in 40 years.

That's a great way to run a hedge fund: the creditors have supposedly invested millions, which will be realised over a long period of time with interest.

I think most of us agree though that it is not a good way to run a football club - slow servicing of a debt at the cost of our league status and an overall devaluing of our business.

SISU won't 'cut their losses' because they need their debt to be fully realised - so Hoffman et al need to buy the whole debt, whatever that is.

Do we know if Hoffman's consortium has the resources to do this, assuming SISU report £40-60m of debt on their books?


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Click to expand...

So are you suggesting that the debt is getting slowly paid off?
I was under the impression it isn't.
Also aren't investments such as this supposed to pay off after 10 years not 40 years.
What if you invested in your late 40's or 50's will you be happy with pay offs in your late 80's / 90's?
I still think it's somehow linked to compensation levels and trying to get the highest price possible when the enivitable does happen
 

Polar

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #73
dongonzalos said:
So are you suggesting that the debt is getting slowly paid off?
I was under the impression it isn't.
Also aren't investments such as this supposed to pay off after 10 years not 40 years.
What if you invested in your late 40's or 50's will you be happy with pay offs in your late 80's / 90's?
I still think it's somehow linked to compensation levels and trying to get the highest price possible when the enivitable does happen
Click to expand...

If they are making a small profit (didn't they report profits in the last few returns to companies house), then I guess they could be? Unless it's being consumed by other things (unexpected expenses in the next year, new staff, growth, occasional reinvestment in players, court cases maybe?).

As I say, probably a rather one-dimensional view and others that know the club better on here will be able to theorise i'm sure. I'm just suggesting that SISU probably have x amount of debt in the business, and so any takeover would probably have to allow them to realise that debt (plus whatever else they feel the business is worth). Therefore a nominal bid for a few million isn't going to let them cut their losses.

Fully agree on your point on how slow it would be to pay back creditors. All i can say is that their current approach seems very conservative; cut as many costs as possible, and get a workable profit in place somehow. Now the business is at least a going concern.

I'm suppose their investors would prefer a low risk approach like that, compared to say, sinking another £20m to try and get promoted a few times and quickly pay off the debts with (hopefully) success.

I would probably agree with the steadying the ship approach in any other business, but this is football! We are at the lowest ebb ever and it's heartbreaking to see.








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mds

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #74
If there is a like for a post, please let the be a dislike!
 

win9nut

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #75
mrtrench said:
You need a sarcasm emoji.

The only time that a tax loss makes sense IMO (and Old Sky Blue may know others) is when you lose money (and you never want to do that) you recognise it in the P/L immediately. So for example, if I have to buy a machine for £100 which has 5 years of use in it, the fair way to account would be to charge £20 to P/L every year. But if I wanted to cook the books I would put the £100 to P/L immediately as I buy it. That's not legal in the UK.
Click to expand...

It's not illegal from a P&L statement perspective (so long as they are adequately audited and signed off) but for tax purposes you can only claim capital allowances in place of depreciation.
 
Reactions: mrtrench
T

The Bobster

Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #76
A couple of points on Sisu.
Sisu manage funds and charge the investors for doing so . On that basis if Sisu sell ,the losses to their investors become evident. I do not believe that it is Seppalla's decision whether they sell ,but the investors. The purpose of a hedge fund is for the investors to get a better return on their investment than they would by using conventional markets. On the basis of their returns to date , it has been a shocking investment.Which designates Sisu as a hedge fund not to invest in .
Until a sale is actioned , the level of the losses to the investors remains camouflaged.
In simple terms if you invested £1m a sale is likely to give you a return of £200k. Your options are to sit it out and you may minimise your loss ,or take the £800k hit and move on . The sale on this basis would destroy Sisu's already poor reputation and no doubt finish them off . While there remains a small glimmer of hope i.e. Robins can mastermind a promotion they have no option to hold onto the club . Unless the investors say enough is enough .i suspect one of the investors is Little Timmy , which is why he works for nothing .
I am not a financial expert , but believe this logically explains why Sisu are so reluctant to sell . I am happy to be corrected, but until we rid ourselves of this vermin the club will be dragged lower and lower , hence why potential local investors are prepared to write money off to save a major part of Coventry heritage .
 
Reactions: Brylowes, Captain Dart, Astute and 7 others
K

Kingokings204

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #77
Whilst I completely agree about realized losses and sisu not selling for such a huge loss etc but one question if I may?

How the fuck are they expecting to ever make their money back by keeping the club?
 
Reactions: Polar
T

The Bobster

Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #78
They are desperate , deluded , dumb ,dickheads, dangerous, choose which one you want. But unless the investors are prepared to write of some of their initial investment they will no doubt cling on like a drunken gambler. Technically their loss is sat there , by until a sale it does not get realised .
 
Reactions: Polar and montydon87
T

The Bobster

Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #79
Another point is whilst there a people looking to purchase the club it is costing them nothing to sit tight at the moment . In addition both the council and the Wasps need CCFC at the Ricoh . Whilst there latest court hearing is likely to fail it would be in the Wasps and Councils interest if Sisu fucked off . What if an out of court settlement could be agreed . It would mask the real issue . I appreciate this is speculation, but one thing for certain is Sisu need to minimise their investors losses . I believe it is not a case of will they but when .
 
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
  • May 28, 2017
  • #80
I'm surprised the Fisher line about crystalising losses has got such currency.

The original investment would have been written off from a SISU investment POV. We're now on to round #2, and *that's* what you have to look at...
 
Reactions: Captain Dart

Sky Blue Harry H

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #81
I am confident that any sale is now closer than the previous posts. I will copy and paste this post in another 10 pages time
 
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The Bobster

Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #82
Deleted member 5849 said:
I'm surprised the Fisher line about crystalising losses has got such currency.

The original investment would have been written off from a SISU investment POV. We're now on to round #2, and *that's* what you have to look at...
Click to expand...
 
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The Bobster

Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #83
Why would they be written off NW ?
The investors presumably would be getting dividends ,but their original investment would still be there ?
 

Sky Blue Harry H

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #84
Probably a naive view, but discounting the balance sheet semantics (and I profess to not fully understanding them) - I wondered if SISU were hoping that if CCFC could have a successful 17/18 season (i.e promotion) then they could gain a higher sale price form any purchasers. Surely they are facing a looming milestone with the Ricoh rental agreement running out at the end of the current season and I would have thought that the time/money involved in resolving that issue (assuming they can't do a deal for the Ricoh) would give them the best 'get out' point at the end of this season. In some ways, I hope that Wasps (spit)/ ACL/whoever (forgotten the relevant negotiating parties!) play hardball and force SISU to go (as alternatives are not practical/acceptable). Might be naive, but I am hopeful that new purchasers would quickly be able to renegotiate with our current landlords and we can then turn this club around.
 
Reactions: Broken Hearted Sky Blue and Polar

Nick

Administrator
  • May 28, 2017
  • #85
Sky Blue Harry H said:
Probably a naive view, but discounting the balance sheet semantics (and I profess to not fully understanding them) - I wondered if SISU were hoping that if CCFC could have a successful 17/18 season (i.e promotion) then they could gain a higher sale price form any purchasers. Surely they are facing a looming milestone with the Ricoh rental agreement running out at the end of the current season and I would have thought that the time/money involved in resolving that issue (assuming they can't do a deal for the Ricoh) would give them the best 'get out' point at the end of this season. In some ways, I hope that Wasps (spit)/ ACL/whoever (forgotten the relevant negotiating parties!) play hardball and force SISU to go (as alternatives are not practical/acceptable). Might be naive, but I am hopeful that new purchasers would quickly be able to renegotiate with our current landlords and we can then turn this club around.
Click to expand...

Got to love all of the want for ccfc to be distressed.
 

Polar

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #86
Deleted member 5849 said:
I'm surprised the Fisher line about crystalising losses has got such currency.

The original investment would have been written off from a SISU investment POV. We're now on to round #2, and *that's* what you have to look at...
Click to expand...

Can you explain to me why that view of realising losses doesn't hold water? What is round 2?

I'm not throwing my weight behind any side of an argument btw, just interested. They used to say £60m of debt...sometimes I hear £40... all feels very smoke and mirrors, which resonates with some of the points made above.


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D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
  • May 28, 2017
  • #87
As simple as I say it, the original investment would have been written off from a SISU POV.

That's it. Investors don't wait for 43 years before asking for a return... or not. It's a Private Equity investment, and you'd be better off looking at when ARVO pop up, and how that coincides with a normal timescale for the end of one investment, start of another... and how the strategy shifts too.
 
Reactions: Polar

covross

New Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #88
The Bobster said:
A couple of points on Sisu.
Sisu manage funds and charge the investors for doing so . On that basis if Sisu sell ,the losses to their investors become evident. I do not believe that it is Seppalla's decision whether they sell ,but the investors. The purpose of a hedge fund is for the investors to get a better return on their investment than they would by using conventional markets. On the basis of their returns to date , it has been a shocking investment.Which designates Sisu as a hedge fund not to invest in .
Until a sale is actioned , the level of the losses to the investors remains camouflaged.
In simple terms if you invested £1m a sale is likely to give you a return of £200k. Your options are to sit it out and you may minimise your loss ,or take the £800k hit and move on . The sale on this basis would destroy Sisu's already poor reputation and no doubt finish them off . While there remains a small glimmer of hope i.e. Robins can mastermind a promotion they have no option to hold onto the club . Unless the investors say enough is enough .i suspect one of the investors is Little Timmy , which is why he works for nothing .
I am not a financial expert , but believe this logically explains why Sisu are so reluctant to sell . I am happy to be corrected, but until we rid ourselves of this vermin the club will be dragged lower and lower , hence why potential local investors are prepared to write money off to save a major part of Coventry heritage .
Click to expand...

Spot on bob. I think Joy would hold out but Tim would walk tomorrow if he could. Does anyone know how many 'investors' are involved in ccfc/sisu? For example 6, and say 2 of the hedge fund would sell but 4 didn't want to, that might be holding Hoffman's takeover up. Dermot Coleman definitely has a lot to answer for too, he shouldn't let ego get in the way of people's livelihoods. But then once they chuck the keys in Sisu will be known as 'sisu the hedge fund that messed up big time'. Which doesn't look good for future 'investors'.
 
Reactions: Polar

Sky Blue Harry H

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #89
Nick said:
Got to love all of the want for ccfc to be distressed.
Click to expand...

I don't want CCFC to be distressed - but, if our owners were squeezed to sell, as they had no viable stadium alternative without forking out ££££s, surely you would want that wouldn't you Nick? (i.e new owners who were willing to try and turn our fortunes around?)
 

Astute

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #90
Nick said:
Got to love all of the want for ccfc to be distressed.
Click to expand...
We have been for about 20 years now so what difference would another year or two make if it helped to get rid of SISU?
 

Nick

Administrator
  • May 28, 2017
  • #91
Astute said:
We have been for about 20 years now so what difference would another year or two make if it helped to get rid of SISU?
Click to expand...
And if it doesn't get rid of them?
 

Captain Dart

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #92
Kingokings204 said:
Whilst I completely agree about realized losses and sisu not selling for such a huge loss etc but one question if I may?

How the fuck are they expecting to ever make their money back by keeping the club?
Click to expand...
I'd ask how the fuck did they ever expect to make money by buying a money pit like a football club?
 
Reactions: Polar and Kingokings204

Captain Dart

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #93
Polar said:
Can you explain to me why that view of realising losses doesn't hold water? What is round 2?

I'm not throwing my weight behind any side of an argument btw, just interested. They used to say £60m of debt...sometimes I hear £40... all feels very smoke and mirrors, which resonates with some of the points made above.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I've been saying the same as NW for some time.

FYI round 2 refers to an investment by a SISU fund called ARVO, which has only put in around £8M, prior to that another SISU fund put in somewhat more (about £25M if memory serves) and made a right pigs ear of their investment strategy,

Essentially that first tranche of money was written off and only exists as paper debt that will never be repaid. Losers ONYE Igwe & then Ken Delieu were associated with the earlier failures. They've been dumped by SISU. This link gives a bit of background, Fisher confirms Onye Igwe departure

Joy Sepalla is much more hands on with this second investment and I see it as her saying to investors I will turn this around and make a profit, and by doing so she will restore her reputation. Assuming she only has to make a decent profit from an £8M investment over 4-5 years then I thing she will let go provided she guarantees to make £12M and has a very good chance of making the return up to double. However I think the court cases will have to play out a bit more.
 
Reactions: Polar

Polar

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #94
Captain Dart said:
I've been saying the same as NW for some time.

FYI round 2 refers to an investment by a SISU fund called ARVO, which has only put in around £8M, prior to that another SISU fund put in somewhat more (about £25M if memory serves) and made a right pigs ear of their investment strategy,

Essentially that first tranche of money was written off and only exists as paper debt that will never be repaid. Losers ONYE Igwe & then Ken Delieu were associated with the earlier failures. They've been dumped by SISU. This link gives a bit of background, Fisher confirms Onye Igwe departure

Joy Sepalla is much more hands on with this second investment and I see it as her saying to investors I will turn this around and make a profit, and by doing so she will restore her reputation. Assuming she only has to make a decent profit from an £8M investment over 4-5 years then I thing she will let go provided she guarantees to make £12M and has a very good chance of making the return up to double. However I think the court cases will have to play out a bit more.
Click to expand...

Thanks, that makes sense to me.

I guess then, that Joy does see a reasonable prospect of making back that kind of money - after all, they report a trickle profit, and despite the obvious stagnation, relegation and possible loss of Academy status (!), things *might* finally start getting better if the club can win promotion next season, from her perspective?

If I ever have any sizeable cash, I'm never investing it in football!


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ccfcway

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #95
Grendel said:
I repeat were they fuck.

What next "Cody was always the one I wanted"
Click to expand...

Thorn must have been lying then ?
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #96
ccfcway said:
Thorn must have been lying then ?
Click to expand...

Well uh yeah - unless you believe Premiership clubs were looking at him. Lol
 

Sky Blue Harry H

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #97
Nick said:
And if it doesn't get rid of them?
Click to expand...

I have renewed my ST, and am not interested in wasting my energy in a SISU out campaign that won't make a jot of difference; however, I do see the impending expiry of the rental agreement as a milestone in forcing SISU to reveal their intentions as regards CCFC. Dislike them as much as I do, it is only because of what they have done. If they change direction and turn the club around, I will be happy. Like others, I won't forget the Northampton debacle, but ultimately it is about the direction that CCFC is being taken. If they can take it in a positive direction, I am fine with that. If not, please sell up to someone who can. Over to you SISU.
 
Reactions: standupforcity, Astute and northernskyblue

Nick

Administrator
  • May 28, 2017
  • #98
Sky Blue Harry H said:
I have renewed my ST, and am not interested in wasting my energy in a SISU out campaign that won't make a jot of difference; however, I do see the impending expiry of the rental agreement as a milestone in forcing SISU to reveal their intentions as regards CCFC. Dislike them as much as I do, it is only because of what they have done. If they change direction and turn the club around, I will be happy. Like others, I won't forget the Northampton debacle, but ultimately it is about the direction that CCFC is being taken. If they can take it in a positive direction, I am fine with that. If not, please sell up to someone who can. Over to you SISU.
Click to expand...

Yes but all of this forcing SISU stuff, what happens if it doesn't make them go but by forcing CCFC out to pressure SISU it means CCFC moves somewhere?
 

ccfcway

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #99
Nick said:
Yes but all of this forcing SISU stuff, what happens if it doesn't make them go but by forcing CCFC out to pressure SISU it means CCFC moves somewhere?
Click to expand...

where ?. Our chairman has confirmed Plan A is the Butts, why would they move somewhere else ?
 

Nick

Administrator
  • May 28, 2017
  • #100
ccfcway said:
where ?. Our chairman has confirmed Plan A is the Butts, why would they move somewhere else ?
Click to expand...

Is that going to be the justification of CCFC being kicked out then? May as well get it rolling already.
 

ccfcway

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #101
Nick said:
Is that going to be the justification of CCFC being kicked out then? May as well get it rolling already.
Click to expand...

don't follow ?, the justification of ccfc being kicked out is ccfc saying they want to go to the butts ?
 
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
  • May 28, 2017
  • #102
Captain Dart said:
I'd ask how the fuck did they ever expect to make money by buying a money pit like a football club?
Click to expand...
Throw some cash and get promotion to top flight. Either tread water and pick up cash, or club then becomes saleable and can be moved on.

Always high risk, potentially high return. 300% was mooted to me once by somebody. Frankly, it was about the only way we were going to get taken over back then.
 
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
  • May 28, 2017
  • #103
Captain Dart said:
I've been saying the same as NW for some time.

FYI round 2 refers to an investment by a SISU fund called ARVO, which has only put in around £8M, prior to that another SISU fund put in somewhat more (about £25M if memory serves) and made a right pigs ear of their investment strategy,

Essentially that first tranche of money was written off and only exists as paper debt that will never be repaid. Losers ONYE Igwe & then Ken Delieu were associated with the earlier failures. They've been dumped by SISU. This link gives a bit of background, Fisher confirms Onye Igwe departure

Joy Sepalla is much more hands on with this second investment and I see it as her saying to investors I will turn this around and make a profit, and by doing so she will restore her reputation. Assuming she only has to make a decent profit from an £8M investment over 4-5 years then I thing she will let go provided she guarantees to make £12M and has a very good chance of making the return up to double. However I think the court cases will have to play out a bit more.
Click to expand...
Wonder if the three year plan they started out with was the three year plan they ended up with...?

This is where it gets emotive (and is where I put the caveat that this is entirely why financiers shouldn't be allowed anywhere near football) but from a financial POV, even though it didn't come off (yet!), the move for the Ricoh was inspired. A shot-to-nothing while having a load of tools that were effectively worthless.

Shame the emotional stuff and cultural stuff wasn't quite so inspired(!) but tbh if I had the cash to invest and was a cold-blooded ruthless businessman, I'd be looking at that and thinking here's someone who's about as ruthless as they can get!

(Un?)fortunately, I'm just a CCFC fan who has to watch as the game of financial poker plays out.
 
Reactions: 6 Generations and Astute

ccfcway

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2017
  • #104
Deleted member 5849 said:
the move for the Ricoh was inspired..
Click to expand...

the problem is,if you think the move was inspired, you must also think the CCC - wasps deal was also inspired
 
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
  • May 28, 2017
  • #105
ccfcway said:
the problem is,if you think the move was inspired, you must also think the CCC - wasps deal was also inspired
Click to expand...
It's almost like I didn't put a load of caveats in...

Anyway, no I don't really, not from a financial POV anyway. It's based on a lot more conventional ideas than the CCFC attempt. So not inspired more... workmanlike.

But still overly leveraged IMNSHO.
 
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