Here's the target - 1.7! (1 Viewer)

grego_gee · Mar 11, 2013

Brentford are currently in P6 with an average of 61/36 = 1.69

so here's what we need to do to get an average of 1.7 and be in with a shout.

Coventry run in 8 fcast pts Avg
37 Scuny A 3 56 1.51
38 Colchester H 3 59 1.55
39 Hartlepool H 3 62 1.59
40 Portsmth A 3 65 1.63
41 Doncaster H 1 66 1.61
42 Walsall A 3 69 1.64
43 Brentford H 1 70 1.63
44 Crawley* A 3 73 1.66
45 Orient H 3 76 1.69
46 Notts A 3 79 1.72

target for play offs = average of 1.7

imp:

Flying Fokker · Mar 11, 2013

So you reckon 15.3 points will do it?

19 points at least
W 6 D 1.
The stats don't compute.

covcity4life · Mar 11, 2013

18pts should do it imo

grego_gee · Mar 11, 2013

Flying Fokker said:
So you reckon 15.3 points will do it?

19 points at least
W 6 D 1.
The stats don't compute.

Sorry the table is difficult to read - the tabs got lost
23 pts (after Scuny) needed on my assumptions

imp:

Click here to explore

Flying Fokker · Mar 11, 2013

Ah....A very tall order. Other clubs will influence this but 8 wins is not on for sure. We would have to break our away record again and also start winning at home.

Teams will drop points anyway. Ourselves included.

23 points averages out at 2.55 per game between now and the end of the season.

19 2.11 per game

RoboCCFC90 · Mar 11, 2013

Six of those nine games are winnable, Doncaster, Brentford and Walsall are the fixtures that worry me slightly but if we believe then we can do it!

grego_gee · Mar 11, 2013

Flying Fokker said:
Ah....A very tall order. Other clubs will influence this but 8 wins is not on for sure. We would have to break our away record again and also start winning at home.

Teams will drop points anyway. Ourselves included.

23 points averages out at 2.55 per game between now and the end of the season.

19 2.11 per game

it doesn't come with a warranty!
but most games are against opposition currently below us in the table.
We could still get the of avg 1.7 without the 1pt for a draw at Donny. the other results are arguably achievable?

imp:

Flying Fokker · Mar 11, 2013

So, we will win all those games and everything will be all right then. If we go with Pressley's 100% record I think they are all winnable. If we achieve 2.5 points per game then great. If we go on our current averages then 71 pts and 8th place is about right.

grego_gee · Mar 11, 2013

Flying Fokker said:
So, we will win all those games and everything will be all right then. If we go with Pressley's 100% record I think they are all winnable. If we achieve 2.5 points per game then great. If we go on our current averages then 71 pts and 8th place is about right.

seven wins and two draws....and at a pinch we could forgo the 1pt at Donny and still be thereabouts.
It all seems achievable but we could loose any of those 7 wins on our flappable best!...
On a good day none of them could beat us!

imp:

skybluesam66 · Mar 11, 2013

23 points would take us to 79....far too high
02/03 7th place had 80 points Tranmere
03/04 7th place had 73 points
04/05 70 points
05/06 69
06/07 72
07/08 69
08/09 74 Tranmere GD +13
09/10 69
10/11 70
11/12 73

so this shows that every team except tranmere in the last 10 seasons to score more than 73 points has made the play offs
I think 19 more points will do it

if we can get 7 from the next 3 games , will leave 12 from 6 (including a must win v brentford) and then it will be game on

Anything less than 7 from the next 3 and i think it will be too much to make up

grego_gee · Mar 11, 2013

My model is based on the team in p6 currently having an average of 1.69pts/game
It could come down but I am not banking on it.
23pts would give us an average of 1.72
22pts (if we don;t get one at Donny) would give us an average of 1.70

I think we will need those 22 at least.

imp:

skybluesam66 · Mar 11, 2013

I think 20 max . I really do. I ran the bbc predictor - we got 20 points and finished 5th (level on points with 6th and 7th)

20 is still massive
I think 17 /18 is more realistic which would leave us on 73/74

may be relying on results over the last couple of weeks

grego_gee · Mar 11, 2013

skybluesam66 said:
23 points would take us to 79....far too high
02/03 7th place had 80 points Tranmere
03/04 7th place had 73 points
04/05 70 points
05/06 69
06/07 72
07/08 69
08/09 74 Tranmere GD +13
09/10 69
10/11 70
11/12 73

so this shows that every team except tranmere in the last 10 seasons to score more than 73 points has made the play offs
I think 19 more points will do it

if we can get 7 from the next 3 games , will leave 12 from 6 (including a must win v brentford) and then it will be game on

Anything less than 7 from the next 3 and i think it will be too much to make up

Points comparison with other seasons is not so relevant,
as you can see from your own figures the required total from one year would not qualify in others...
(but it is interesting. Maybe its better to look at P6 rather than p7?
and how do the average pts per game work out?)

imp:

Spence CCFC · Mar 11, 2013

103 Title winners 2012
96 Title winners 2009(Average Points for Title winners)
95 Title winners 2011, 2010
93 2nd Place 2012
92 2nd Place 2011, Title winners 2008
89 2nd Place 2009
88 (Average points needed to finish 2nd)
86 2nd Place 2010
82 2nd Place 2008
80 6th Place 2010
76 6th Place 2009, 6th Place 2008
75 (Average points needed to finish 6th)
73 6th Place 2012
71 6th Place 2011

grego_gee · Mar 11, 2013

Spence CCFC said:
103 Title winners 2012
96 Title winners 2009(Average Points for Title winners)
95 Title winners 2011, 2010
93 2nd Place 2012
92 2nd Place 2011, Title winners 2008
89 2nd Place 2009
88 (Average points needed to finish 2nd)
86 2nd Place 2010
82 2nd Place 2008
80 6th Place 2010
76 6th Place 2009, 6th Place 2008
75 (Average points needed to finish 6th)
73 6th Place 2012
71 6th Place 2011

Brentford already have an average of 1.69 pts per game, that would be 78 pts over 46 games. The average won't move much towards the end of the season, although it does depend on who you are playing.
To catch them we have to hit 2.44 pts/game over the next 9 games and we need them not to improve on 1.69pts/game themselves over that period.
It might happen it might not.... if we loose a couple off this schedule, I expect admin in some form.

imp:

Bluegloucester · Mar 11, 2013

It might happen it might not.... if we loose a couple off this schedule, I expect admin in some form.

imp:[/QUOTE]

I think you may be correct! Unfortunately.

WillieStanley · Mar 11, 2013

RoboCCFC90 said:
Six of those nine games are winnable, Doncaster, Brentford and Walsall are the fixtures that worry me slightly but if we believe then we can do it!

Actually, the teams you mention don't worry me as much as Hartlepool and Colchester. It's those teams we need to watch. We're rubbish at playing that type of team

Flying Fokker · Mar 11, 2013

Come on then, what is your logic for admin? Isn't there a cut off point for going in to admin?

Otis · Mar 11, 2013

WillieStanley said:
Actually, the teams you mention don't worry me as much as Hartlepool and Colchester. It's those teams we need to watch. We're rubbish at playing that type of team

Yep. And when I looked on Saturday morning, Hartlepool were 4th in the current form table, Colchester 7th and Scunthorpe 11th.

It's this time of the season where teams at the bottom quite often have an upturn in form and start picking up points.

These are the sorts of teams we need to worry about and are going to probably be much tougher than those against sides in midtable.

Colchester have picked up 4 points from their last 2 away games, while we of course have lost 4 in a row at home.

stupot07 · Mar 11, 2013

grego_gee said:
My model is based on the team in p6 currently having an average of 1.69pts/game
It could come down but I am not banking on it.
23pts would give us an average of 1.72
22pts (if we don;t get one at Donny) would give us an average of 1.70

I think we will need those 22 at least.

imp:

22 points divided by 9 games is 2.44 points per game not 1.7.

dadgad · Mar 11, 2013

What about the -10 pts everyone was banging on about last week?

SkyBlue_Bear83 · Mar 11, 2013

stupot07 said:
22 points divided by 9 games is 2.44 points per game not 1.7.

He means it would give us a 1.7 points average for the whole season.

RoboCCFC90 · Mar 11, 2013

WillieStanley said:
Actually, the teams you mention don't worry me as much as Hartlepool and Colchester. It's those teams we need to watch. We're rubbish at playing that type of team

That was probably said before Scunthorpe as well on Saturday but City previaled and although in the first 20 Minutes Scunthorpe hounded us in and pushed us back, eventually our quality shone through.. Every team in our last nine fixtures is beatable by our standards, we just need to turn up and do what everyone knows we can..

stupot07 · Mar 11, 2013

CCFC said:
He means it would give us a 1.7 points average for the whole season.

Feck me....did he really need to make it that complicated?

Paxman II · Mar 11, 2013

You can throw out the stats all you want and if correct then why not fill in a pools coupon every week?

The only fact to worry about is winning as many as we can. At this business end of the season those kind of stats start flying out the window as teams come under pressure and results are not quite what you expected. Also it may turn out that Notts County is either the toughest game of the season or the easiest...cause they may fall away between now and then or they may be in with their own shout?

My point is all your assumptions are made on what you think will happen based primarily on current form of each team. Take Bournemouth, what's stopping another contender doing the same as them recently and falling off the pace?

We can affect the position by doing our own bit and even improving on our form by winning games at home too. Do that and the cracks will appear elsewhere for us to take advantage of. First we have to do that though! perhaps pressly should do what Grayson has done and challenge them to go unbeaten to the finish line?

stupot07 · Mar 11, 2013

Can't see us remaining unbeaten, we concede far too many goals.

skybluelee · Mar 11, 2013

stupot07 said:
Feck me....did he really need to make it that complicated?

It wasn't.

grego_gee · Mar 11, 2013

stupot07 said:
Feck me....did he really need to make it that complicated?

lol
its simple really!

If we win enough, we'll get into the play-offs.

(....THEN we'll loose!)

What is enough?
looking at the average pts/game of the lowest team in the play off places, lets us predict how many points they will have after 46 games (unless their win rate drops).
That prediction is 78pts

imp:

Otis · Mar 11, 2013

stupot07 said:
Can't see us remaining unbeaten, we concede far too many goals.

But now we have a defender as manager.

Maybe with that we will tighten up at the back.

nicksig · Mar 11, 2013

I reckon 73 points will see us in the top 6.

stupot07 · Mar 11, 2013

Otis said:
But now we have a defender as manager.

Maybe with that we will tighten up at the back.

Hopefully, but that that won't happen overnight and playing sat - tues - sat means less time on the training pitch to work on those type of things......and that's before looking at individual errors.

Otis · Mar 11, 2013

Luckily we haven't had any of them this season.

Flying Fokker · Mar 13, 2013

1 point

22 from 8 needed.

Plan b.
all these other clubs will drop points from now on.

Otis · Mar 13, 2013

Or 4 teams out of the top 6 will go into administration.

grego_gee · Mar 16, 2013

Hey the target is lower!

In analysing the original target I only looked at the team in sixth place but after todays games I checked the teams above them and found Bournmouth have a lower average currently only 1.64
If we can get 5 wins and 2 draws from the last 7 we'd finish on 77 pts with an average of 1.67 and puts us in with a chance of overhauling the current lowest average in the top six.

I've updated the original table CLICK HERE

# Team Pl Pts GD GS avg

4 Bournemth 39 64 11 61 1.641025641
7 Tranmere 39 63 13 55 1.615384615
8 Coventry 39 60 15 62 1.538461538

Here's the target - 1.7! (1 Viewer)

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