GW46 - Where we should have V did finish this season (1 Viewer)

ccfcricoh · Mar 19, 2018

Updated for Crewe win 2-1

Cementing the play off form and keeping points ticking over.

Wins needed (maybe)
Playoffs - 4 more needed
Autos - 7 more needed

Games left:
GW38 - Grimsby Town (H) - win
GW39 - Newport County (A) - lose
GW40 - Yeovil Town (H) - win
GW41 - Notts County (A) - lose
GW42 - Crawley Town (A) - win
GW43 - Stevenage (H) - win
GW44 - Lincoln City (H) - draw
GW45 - Cheltenham Town (A) - draw
GW46 - Morecambe (H) - win

Which will have us on 78 points finish which i think will be just short of autos but easily in playoffs

Where we can still finish mathematically - 1st to 23rd (we can't be caught be Barnet!) not taking into account who has who to play but it wont be far off.

matesx · Mar 19, 2018

I can honestly see us going unbeaten through that lot (if we avoid injuries to key players)

Cranfield Sky Blue · Mar 19, 2018

matesx said:
I can honestly see us going unbeaten through that lot (if we avoid injuries to key players)

I was thinking that earlier. We will need a bit of luck to get results at Newport and Notts County. But the rest are definitely games we should get something if we want to be in the mix.

Modcons86 · Mar 19, 2018

Cranfield Sky Blue said:
I was thinking that earlier. We will need a bit of luck to get results at Newport and Notts County. But the rest are definitely games we should get something if we want to be in the mix.

I think newport will be the tougher game of those 2. Hopefully go in to notts c game being 8 unbeaten.

ccfcway · Mar 19, 2018

win 4 out of 5 at home and in play offs for 1st time in my life

every chance !

Cranfield Sky Blue · Mar 19, 2018

ccfcway said:
win 4 out of 5 at home and in play offs for 1st time in my life

every chance !

Wouldn’t it be the first time ever??

wingy · Mar 24, 2018

The lower graph looks distorted to me .

ccfcricoh · Mar 27, 2018

Updated for Grimsby win 4-0

I reckon we could be doing a Portsmouth and on track to win the league you know! We are only 1 point behind where they were last year and Doncaster who we're top at the time were on 78 points compared with Accringtons "potential" 77 if they win their spare game. (Luton have played 1 more game)...

Wins needed (maybe)
Playoffs - 3 more needed
Autos - 6 more needed

Games left:
GW39 - Newport County (A) - lose
GW40 - Yeovil Town (H) - win
GW41 - Notts County (A) - lose
GW42 - Crawley Town (A) - win
GW43 - Stevenage (H) - win
GW44 - Lincoln City (H) - draw
GW45 - Cheltenham Town (A) - draw
GW46 - Morecambe (H) - win

Estimate finish on 78 points

Realistically still think Play offs is more likely...

Mathematically finish: 1st - 19th (safe from relegation!)

ccfcricoh · Mar 27, 2018

wingy said:
The lower graph looks distorted to me .

In what way mate? Looks ok on my screen

wingy · Mar 27, 2018

ccfcricoh said:
In what way mate? Looks ok on my screen

Just that the future is already plotted, the blue line Lol.
If you could just erase those 8 games it would stop me thinking we're going to flatline.

ccfcricoh · Mar 27, 2018

wingy said:
Just that the future is already plotted, the blue line Lol.
If you could just erase those 8 games it would stop me thinking we're going to flatline.

Ha that's the bit that guesses where we'll finish, its just based on average points per game picked up so far...don't panic just yet!

Sky Blue Pete · Mar 27, 2018

Where’s the updated graph?

skyblueinBaku · Mar 27, 2018

Sky Blue Pete said:
Where’s the updated graph?

On the first page of the thread.

ccfcricoh · Apr 3, 2018

Updated for Newport draw 1-1 and Yeovil loss 2-6

Well that wasn't an ideal Easter weekend.....

Any hopes of autos have severely diminished although maybe still mathematically possible...

Wins needed (maybe)
Playoffs - 3 more needed
Autos - 6 more needed

Games left:
GW41 - Notts County (A) - lose
GW42 - Crawley Town (A) - win
GW43 - Stevenage (H) - win
GW44 - Lincoln City (H) - draw
GW45 - Cheltenham Town (A) - draw
GW46 - Morecambe (H) - win

Estimate finish on 76 points

76 points has been enough for playoffs in last 9 years and i imagine it will be this year as well.

if we win all 6 games we will finish on 83 points which still may not be enough seeing as Accrington only need 4 more points to better that, Luton 7 and Wycombe 9.

Mathematically finish: 1st - 16th

Warwickhunt · Apr 3, 2018

8th after that shite

Mucca Mad Boys · Apr 3, 2018

ccfcricoh said:
Updated for Newport draw 1-1 and Yeovil loss 2-6

Well that wasn't an ideal Easter weekend.....

Any hopes of autos have severely diminished although maybe still mathematically possible...

Wins needed (maybe)
Playoffs - 3 more needed
Autos - 6 more needed

Games left:
GW41 - Notts County (A) - lose
GW42 - Crawley Town (A) - win
GW43 - Stevenage (H) - win
GW44 - Lincoln City (H) - draw
GW45 - Cheltenham Town (A) - draw
GW46 - Morecambe (H) - win

Estimate finish on 76 points

76 points has been enough for playoffs in last 9 years and i imagine it will be this year as well.

if we win all 6 games we will finish on 83 points which still may not be enough seeing as Accrington only need 4 more points to better that, Luton 7 and Wycombe 9.

Mathematically finish: 1st - 16th

I think at this rate, a loss v Lincoln is v possible! They’ve hit form right now and have beaten Carlisle away, a fantastic result. I’d swap the loss and draw with Notts County.

ccfcricoh · Apr 3, 2018

Warwickhunt said:
8th after that shite

Every possibility!

Mucca Mad Boys said:
I think at this rate, a loss v Lincoln is v possible! They’ve hit form right now and have beaten Carlisle away, a fantastic result. I’d swap the loss and draw with Notts County.

Agree - i'm just hoping that we pickup the 3 wins (4 would be lovely!)

Mucca Mad Boys · Apr 3, 2018

ccfcricoh said:
Agree - i'm just hoping that we pickup the 3 wins (4 would be lovely!)

I'm hoping yesterday was just a one-off. Thankfully Notts County are in a rut themselves, I think this game could well be a 0-0. Notts County know they have to win themselves for automatics, so may come out on the attack, hopefully we get them on the counter. I expect at least 2-3 changes.

PUSB

ccfcricoh · Apr 9, 2018

Updated for Notts C loss 2-1

Lets hope this run stops at 3 games!

Autos have gone now - even 5 wins will only see us on 80 points which has only been enough for autos in 2 of last 10 year, and Accrington and Luton have already reached 80 points! Not mathematically but it would be a miracle!

Wins needed (maybe)
Playoffs - 3 more needed

Games left:
GW42 - Crawley Town (A) - win
GW43 - Stevenage (H) - win
GW44 - Lincoln City (H) - draw
GW45 - Cheltenham Town (A) - draw
GW46 - Morecambe (H) - win

Estimate finish on 76 points still as I had us to lose to Notts as it was. Appreciate the above will require a turnaround in performance and fortune, but 3 games ago that's exactly what happened the other way round so not impossible!

76 points has been enough for playoffs in last 9 years and i imagine it will be this year as well. Even if the 2 draws turn into losses 74 points may well be enough as well!

Mathematically finish: 2nd - 16th (Top spots gone unfortunately!)

Warwickhunt · Apr 9, 2018

ccfcricoh said:
Updated for Notts C loss 2-1

Lets hope this run stops at 3 games!

Autos have gone now - even 5 wins will only see us on 80 points which has only been enough for autos in 2 of last 10 year, and Accrington and Luton have already reached 80 points! Not mathematically but it would be a miracle!

Wins needed (maybe)
Playoffs - 3 more needed

Games left:
GW42 - Crawley Town (A) - win
GW43 - Stevenage (H) - win
GW44 - Lincoln City (H) - draw
GW45 - Cheltenham Town (A) - draw
GW46 - Morecambe (H) - win

Estimate finish on 76 points still as I had us to lose to Notts as it was. Appreciate the above will require a turnaround in performance and fortune, but 3 games ago that's exactly what happened the other way round so not impossible!

76 points has been enough for playoffs in last 9 years and i imagine it will be this year as well. Even if the 2 draws turn into losses 74 points may well be enough as well!

Mathematically finish: 2nd - 16th (Top spots gone unfortunately!)

So on your predictions Swindon & Mansfield will need 4 wins and a Draw to overtake City. Tuesday nights games are critical and hope neither team actually Win

ccfcricoh · Apr 9, 2018

Warwickhunt said:
So on your predictions Swindon & Mansfield will need 4 wins and a Draw to overtake City. Tuesday nights games are critical and hope neither team actually Win

Both losing would be very ideal indeed... and all of a sudden 2 points clear with a game in hand looks a hell of a lot more comfortable!

All still in out hands though, if we do as I hope above I can't see either of them catching us

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

ccfcricoh · Apr 16, 2018

Updated for Crawley win 2-1

All of a sudden everyone is a bit happier again

Wycombe failing to win means those that are overly optimistic could still argue autos are still possible...but not going to happen!

Wins needed (maybe)
Playoffs - 2 more needed

Games left:
GW43 - Stevenage (H) - win
GW44 - Lincoln City (H) - draw
GW45 - Cheltenham Town (A) - draw
GW46 - Morecambe (H) - win

Estimate finish on 76 points (which hasn't changed over last couple of weeks as I've guessed correct results!) lets hope that carries on as 76 points will almost guarantee play offs, only wouldn't if Mansfield win all games and keep goal difference advantage.

Even 2 wins and 2 losses would get us to 74 so Mansfield would need 2 wins and a draw from 3 games (and GD). Lincoln obviously stand a better chance of overtaking us but there's 2 spots left to play for, so only need to beat one of them!

I'm going to stick my neck out and say we will win on Friday and next Tuesday we could be guaranteed playoffs.

Mathematically finish: 3rd - 13th

Modcons86 · Apr 16, 2018

ccfcricoh said:
Updated for Crawley win 2-1

All of a sudden everyone is a bit happier again

Wycombe failing to win means those that are overly optimistic could still argue autos are still possible...but not going to happen!

Wins needed (maybe)
Playoffs - 2 more needed

Games left:

Estimate finish on 76 points (which hasn't changed over last couple of weeks as I've guessed correct results!) lets hope that carries on as 76 points will almost guarantee play offs, only wouldn't if Mansfield win all games and keep goal difference advantage.

Even 2 wins and 2 losses would get us to 74 so Mansfield would need 2 wins and a draw from 3 games (and GD). Lincoln obviously stand a better chance of overtaking us but there's 2 spots left to play for, so only need to beat one of them!

I'm going to stick my neck out and say we will win on Friday and next Tuesday we could be guaranteed playoffs.

Mathematically finish: 3rd - 13th

What outcomes are needed for it to be secured Tuesday? Mansfield and lincoln losses needed?
All too confusing this haha. Still think we will do cheltenham away.
Stevenage (H) - win
Lincoln City (H) - draw
Cheltenham Town (A) - win
Morecambe (H) - win

Optimistic i know.

ccfcricoh · Apr 16, 2018

If we win Friday and Tuesday we'll be on 74 points with 2 to play.

If Lincoln dont pick up more than 1 point in their 2 games before us we would be guaranteed playoffs...or

if Mansfield lose on Saturday we would be in playoffs. If Mansfield draw on Saturday they could only match us and go above with goal difference.

Hope that makes sense! not clear i know (and does rely on us winning both of course!) - we'll know a hell of a lot more come Saturday eve!

Modcons86 · Apr 16, 2018

ccfcricoh said:
If we win Friday and Tuesday we'll be on 74 points with 2 to play.

If Lincoln dont pick up more than 1 point in their 2 games before us we would be guaranteed playoffs...or

if Mansfield lose on Saturday we would be in playoffs. If Mansfield draw on Saturday they could only match us and go above with goal difference.

Hope that makes sense! not clear i know (and does rely on us winning both of course!) - we'll know a hell of a lot more come Saturday eve!

Nice one mate
Let's get friday out the way and hope mansfield slip up.

ccfcricoh · Apr 16, 2018

Modcons86 said:
What outcomes are needed for it to be secured Tuesday? Mansfield and lincoln losses needed?
All too confusing this haha. Still think we will do cheltenham away.
Stevenage (H) - win
Lincoln City (H) - draw
Cheltenham Town (A) - win
Morecambe (H) - win

Optimistic i know.

On the other hand - if you are right with your predictions i couldn't care less what anyone else did !

Modcons86 · Apr 16, 2018

ccfcricoh said:
On the other hand - if you are right with your predictions i couldn't care less what anyone else did !

Haha I know it's city, but i feel we will get 6 points from the last 2 games. Although id rather not lose ground and be needing them.

ccfcricoh · Apr 23, 2018

Updated for Stevenage win 3-1

So close!

Wycombe failing to win (again!) means that we are actually still in the autos possibilities with 3 games to go ...but if Wycombe really screw it up i imagine its Exeter/Notts claiming it!

Wins needed (maybe)
Playoffs - 1 more needed
Autos - 3 more needed plus complete meltdown by all of Wycombe/Exeter/Notts

Games left:
GW44 - Lincoln City (H) - draw
GW45 - Cheltenham Town (A) - draw
GW46 - Morecambe (H) - win

Estimate finish on 76 points (which hasn't changed over last 3 games as I've guessed correct results!) lets hope that carries on as anything over 75 points will guarantee play offs.

So, 1 win and 1 draw is guaranteed but 1 win will most likely be enough as Mansfield would then have to win their last 2 (1 win in 11 currently!) and it'll come down to GD

Tuesday night is huge - a win for either will all but guarantee playoffs, a draw would mean either team just needs 1 win from 2 to guarantee, a loss wouldn't be the end of the world but would make it even more squeeky bum!

Mathematically finish: 3rd - 8th

Otis · Apr 23, 2018

ccfcricoh said:
Updated for Stevenage win 3-1

So close!

Wycombe failing to win (again!) means that we are actually still in the autos possibilities with 3 games to go ...but if Wycombe really screw it up i imagine its Exeter/Notts claiming it!

Wins needed (maybe)
Playoffs - 1 more needed
Autos - 3 more needed plus complete meltdown by all of Wycombe/Exeter/Notts

Games left:
GW44 - Lincoln City (H) - draw
GW45 - Cheltenham Town (A) - draw
GW46 - Morecambe (H) - win

Estimate finish on 76 points (which hasn't changed over last 3 games as I've guessed correct results!) lets hope that carries on as anything over 75 points will guarantee play offs.

So, 1 win and 1 draw is guaranteed but 1 win will most likely be enough as Mansfield would then have to win their last 2 (1 win in 11 currently!) and it'll come down to GD

Tuesday night is huge - a win for either will all but guarantee playoffs, a draw would mean either team just needs 1 win from 2 to guarantee, a loss wouldn't be the end of the world but would make it even more squeeky bum!

Mathematically finish: 3rd - 8th

Hooray!! Glad the 13th has gone.

ccfcricoh · Apr 23, 2018

Otis said:
Hooray!! Glad the 13th has gone.

Top half! Woohoo!

Only 6th top half finish in last 29 seasons!

ccfcricoh · Apr 25, 2018

Updated for Lincoln loss 4-2

I haven't read any other threads yet but i imagine everyone is suicidal again and its the end of the world.

One negative is that autos is finally out of reach, but the playoff position doesn't really change (albeit with 1 game less to play)

Wins needed (maybe)
Playoffs - 1 more needed

Games left:
GW45 - Cheltenham Town (A) - draw
GW46 - Morecambe (H) - win

Estimate finish on 75 points which will guarantee playoffs.

I still think 1 more win will seal it and is more than achievable against 2 teams in the bottom half.

In a weird twisted way, i'm not too fussed about losing to Lincoln, we we're never going to go unbeaten from Crawley game through the playoffs so hopefully that's the last "slip up" we have left in us this season.

Mathematically finish: 4th 8th (bye bye autos)

jimmyhillsfanclub · Apr 25, 2018

1 win is not enough IMO......we need the 4 points minimum as I can see Mansfield winning both their games......

ccfcricoh · Apr 25, 2018

jimmyhillsfanclub said:
1 win is not enough IMO......we need the 4 points minimum as I can see Mansfield winning both their games......

You may well be correct - but 1 win in 11 and playing 2 teams who they didn't beat in their first match either - absolutely nothing to suggest they will win their last 2. (although i fully appreciate it could happen!)

Modcons86 · Apr 25, 2018

ccfcricoh said:
You may well be correct - but 1 win in 11 and playing 2 teams who they didn't beat in their first match either - absolutely nothing to suggest they will win their last 2. (although i fully appreciate it could happen!)

I can see mansfield slipping up. And as earlier posted i still expect 6 points from these last 2

ccfcricoh · Apr 30, 2018

Updated for Cheltenham win 6-1

Slight change of attitude since Tuesday on here, but after all that hard work and big win not a lot changed in the end (other than moving back above Lincoln which could prove vital!)

With 1 game to go these workings suggest that we do not actually need a result and we have already reached the play off spots! Although we all know that's not mathematically quite true yet

Wins needed (maybe)
Playoffs - 0 more needed

Games left:
GW46 - Morecambe (H) - win

Estimate finish on 77 points which will guarantee playoffs.

So if we lose on Saturday we would need either Mansfield to not win or Lincoln to lose (keeping an eye on goal difference)

Our current points tally (74) has been enough for play offs in 8 out of last 10 seasons and you'd have to say we would be unlucky for it not to be enough this season

Mathematically finish: 4th 8th (still)

See you all next week when can have a look at final points tallies and see how far these workings we're actually out to start with!

GW46 - Where we should have V did finish this season (1 Viewer)

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