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General Election (2 Viewers)

  • Thread starter Liquid Gold
  • Start date Apr 18, 2017
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oucho

Well-Known Member
  • May 3, 2017
  • #386
Philosorapter said:
Its got to be fun finding out what has destabilised Labour more. The leader, as the Labour right insists, or the Labour right trying to get one of their own back into the reigns of power in Labour.

Its an interesting turnaround over the last few days now that the Labour right have gone silent. The question is though, as been rightly pointed out, will the trend continue?
Click to expand...
My question is, is it a trend at all?
 

Philosoraptor

Well-Known Member
  • May 3, 2017
  • #387
oucho said:
My question is, is it a trend at all?
Click to expand...

Harold Wilson thought so. He said a week is a long time in politics.
 

oucho

Well-Known Member
  • May 3, 2017
  • #388
Philosorapter said:
Harold Wilson thought so. He said a week is a long time in politics.
Click to expand...
Wilson has been dead for 22 years this month, I doubt he has much of an opinion on polling "trends" from the last week or two.

The Tory leads of well above 20% were ridiculous and it seems to me that May got an "election announcement bounce" which has now worked its way out of the polling. Other than the two big polls over Easter, the polling now is consistent with the polling before the announcement, so I would say that if anything, rather than a trend towards Labour, what the polls are saying is that opinion has reverted to the pre-announcement state i.e. settled back down to the pre-announcement normal.

In any case you are right in part - the Tories will be avidly counting the days down, wishing they could have polling day today! They'll be encouraging postal voting amongst their supporters before any late away swing hurts them. Hence the safety first approach. It may bite them, but you can see why they're trying to avoid anything that might trip them up. The public may get bored and turn to other parties, or the CPS thing may destroy the Tory poll lead - but it will need SOMETHING dramatic to prevent an increased Tory majority. At present, the opposition parties do not seem to be anywhere near providing that SOMETHING.
 
Reactions: martcov
M

Monners

Well-Known Member
  • May 3, 2017
  • #389
May will win despite the fact that she appears out of her depth (Cameron Light if you like) - Corbyn is unelectable.
 

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
  • May 3, 2017
  • #390
Grendel said:
I'm talking about the opposition which strangely you appear reticent on discussing.
Click to expand...

I've already stated numerous times that I have little faith in them but they are no worse than the current government...for some reason you are reluctant to discuss them
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • May 3, 2017
  • #391
Sick Boy said:
I've already stated numerous times that I have little faith in them but they are no worse than the current government...for some reason you are reluctant to discuss them
Click to expand...

They are a lot worse. Regardless of opinions on Chairman May and her politics (she's really rather a feeble liberal despite her silly posturing) no one can seriously argue a front bench of "ourselves alone" McDonnell, the sneering elitist Thornberry and the ultimate laughing stock Abbott headed up by a dithering clueless Corbyn would do anything other than turn the country into a chaotic banana republic.
 
Reactions: Kingokings204

oucho

Well-Known Member
  • May 3, 2017
  • #392
For those talking up a "trend towards Labour" in the last few polls (which I argue above couldn't yet be called a 'trend' at all)....2 polls out tonight:

YouGov, for tomorrow's Times:
CON: 48% (+4) LAB: 29% (-2) LDEM: 10% (-1) UKIP: 5% (-1)

Kantar (formerly TNS):
CON: 48% (+2) LAB: 24% (-) LDEM: 11% (-) UKIP: 7% (-1)

Tory leads of 19% and 24% - I doubt this will last but all things being even, you'd expect a double-digit lead on polling day. The only thing I can see undoing this for May now is the CPS announcement on prosecution of Tories for expenses declarations at the last election. But on these numbers and with JC as the alternative, the Tory lead looks bomb-proof even against that.

If, as some have predicted, Labour lose hundreds of seats tomorrow in the council elections and also lose the mayoralty votes in West Midlands and Tees Valley, there may well be calls for a last-ditch resignation of JC and a temporary leader being installed to take them through the election.
 
Reactions: martcov

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • May 3, 2017
  • #393
oucho said:
For those talking up a "trend towards Labour" in the last few polls (which I argue above couldn't yet be called a 'trend' at all)....2 polls out tonight:

YouGov, for tomorrow's Times:
CON: 48% (+4) LAB: 29% (-2) LDEM: 10% (-1) UKIP: 5% (-1)

Kantar (formerly TNS):
CON: 48% (+2) LAB: 24% (-) LDEM: 11% (-) UKIP: 7% (-1)

Tory leads of 19% and 24% - I doubt this will last but all things being even, you'd expect a double-digit lead on polling day. The only thing I can see undoing this for May now is the CPS announcement on prosecution of Tories for expenses declarations at the last election. But on these numbers and with JC as the alternative, the Tory lead looks bomb-proof even against that.

If, as some have predicted, Labour lose hundreds of seats tomorrow in the council elections and also lose the mayoralty votes in West Midlands and Tees Valley, there may well be calls for a last-ditch resignation of JC and a temporary leader being installed to take them through the election.
Click to expand...

I hope they last and I hope it's a crushing majority for the Conservatives. I've now decided I will vote Conservative for the second time in general ejections. It's pathetic to even suggest a Corbyn led party has the remotest hope of forming a government. This clueless rabble needs destroying so that a sensible opposition can begin again
 

oucho

Well-Known Member
  • May 3, 2017
  • #394
Grendel said:
I hope they last and I hope it's a crushing majority for the Conservatives. I've now decided I will vote Conservative for the second time in general ejections. It's pathetic to even suggest a Corbyn led party has the remotest hope of forming a government. This clueless rabble needs destroying so that a sensible opposition can begin again
Click to expand...

For once you talk a lot of sense, in fact I agree with every word there (except 'ejections' which nonetheless will be appropriate for many Labour MPs on June 8th including possibly Cunningham)
 
Reactions: martcov

Captain Dart

Well-Known Member
  • May 3, 2017
  • #395
Never mind the polls, there will be a Tory majority of over 100 seats, in fact probably closer to 150.
 

mrtrench

Well-Known Member
  • May 4, 2017
  • #396
RegTheDonk said:
It's a shame that gaffs like this are headlines in the media, jumped on by the opposition, and stick in the mind of voters. I'd rather the media investigate weather the actual sums are right, rather then the berk delivering the message. On 5 live, yes the numbers do add up ... but only if you look at salaries, and ignore the cost of equipping extra coppers.
Most people are alert enough to look deeper, but others are easily swayed. Too many times the soundbites are making the news, not the issues.
Click to expand...

I think we need both. It's important, I think, for the electorate to see how competent the Home Secretary would be if Labour won. She never comes across well IMO, speaks very slowly and repeats the same emotional but factless tripe but is rarely pressed where only a fact will do.

What completely amazes me is that she has a degree from Cambridge. I just cannot reconcile that with her presentation - basically she comes across as rather dim.
 
Reactions: RegTheDonk and martcov

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • May 4, 2017
  • #397
Grendel said:
I hope they last and I hope it's a crushing majority for the Conservatives. I've now decided I will vote Conservative for the second time in general ejections. It's pathetic to even suggest a Corbyn led party has the remotest hope of forming a government. This clueless rabble needs destroying so that a sensible opposition can begin again
Click to expand...
We will all we weeping by 2020
 
Reactions: Sick Boy
M

martcov

Well-Known Member
  • May 4, 2017
  • #398
Grendel said:
They are a lot worse. Regardless of opinions on Chairman May and her politics (she's really rather a feeble liberal despite her silly posturing) no one can seriously argue a front bench of "ourselves alone" McDonnell, the sneering elitist Thornberry and the ultimate laughing stock Abbott headed up by a dithering clueless Corbyn would do anything other than turn the country into a chaotic banana republic.
Click to expand...

I thought we are turning into a chaotic country anyway since the Brexit catastrophe....
 
Reactions: Sick Boy

torchomatic

Well-Known Member
  • May 4, 2017
  • #399
Today will be the first election in 30 years I haven't voted in. Due to stuff I didn't sort out a postal vote.

Hope to be able to be out for the general election.
 

Philosoraptor

Well-Known Member
  • May 4, 2017
  • #400
Today will be around twenty years since I last voted in an election. What's the point when it feels like you're voting for management teams instead of an ideology.

I have though been quite excited about the two recent referendums. Isn't it great to see direct democracy in action and politicians actually listening to the public.
 

Covstu

Well-Known Member
  • May 4, 2017
  • #401
As much as I don't trust the Tories I just cannot buy into what Labour are selling at the moment. They are trying to hard to be all things to everyone (on the street) and have no substance behind it. Big push on bringing power back to unions which is worrying given that most of our industries are no longer Primary sector and more service based so this would push more companies out of the country if there are threats of strikes, collective pay consultations etc (there needs to be a balance of course), Living wage to £10ph is a little unrealistic however I would anticipate that this would be over the 4 years rather than immediately. NHS and police officers I don't disagree with but question affordability...

On the other hand, Tories really not spouting anything of significance either but I do feel that we need to secure businesses within the UK post Brexit rather than make wholesale changes which could drive them away.

In terms of publicity, Labour clearly going for hearts until the latest gaff but I am getting sick of the constant sniping at each party rather than focusing on the actual issues.

On another note, Tories surely could have come up with some good 'May' puns for today being the 4th May!!
 
M

Monners

Well-Known Member
  • May 4, 2017
  • #402
I always vote so had talked myself into it again - but I am seriously considering not doing so this time around. None of the parties give me any hope at all and are out of touch with reality. All they do is politics for politics sake. That shouldn't be what being a public servant is about.
 
Reactions: Covstu

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • May 4, 2017
  • #403
Anybody voting in the mayoral election? I don't live in the West Midlands but there is one in Greater Manchester. As these posts are supposedly something similar to the Mayor of London, the amount of coverage is embarrassing.

The West Midlands ones are so Birmingham-centric too, thanks Coventry City Council for forcing the city into this.
 
Reactions: Sick Boy and M&B Stand

Nick

Administrator
  • May 4, 2017
  • #404
Just seen the WM bloke talking.


*Edit, this isn't him. It is just because he looks a bit like him.
 

Covstu

Well-Known Member
  • May 4, 2017
  • #405
fernandopartridge said:
Anybody voting in the mayoral election? I don't live in the West Midlands but there is one in Greater Manchester. As these posts are supposedly something similar to the Mayor of London, the amount of coverage is embarrassing.

The West Midlands ones are so Birmingham-centric too, thanks Coventry City Council for forcing the city into this.
Click to expand...
And this is why I have not bothered
 

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
  • May 4, 2017
  • #406
torchomatic said:
Today will be the first election in 30 years I haven't voted in. Due to stuff I didn't sort out a postal vote.

Hope to be able to be out for the general election.
Click to expand...

Good luck Torch. I'll keep my fingers crossed for that to happen for you.
 
Reactions: clint van damme

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • May 4, 2017
  • #407
Covstu said:
And this is why I have not bothered
Click to expand...

Because you're happy with whoever you get?

Someone should've run on a "get rid of the WMCA" ticket, they'd probably have won.
 

Covstu

Well-Known Member
  • May 5, 2017
  • #408
shmmeee said:
Because you're happy with whoever you get?

Someone should've run on a "get rid of the WMCA" ticket, they'd probably have won.
Click to expand...
i think the fact that its now greater Birmingham means we are going to get shafted no matter what...
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
  • May 5, 2017
  • #409
Covstu said:
i think the fact that its now greater Birmingham means we are going to get shafted no matter what...
Click to expand...
Seems to be taking a long time to count the votes for what looks like a very low turnout.
 
Reactions: Covstu

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • May 5, 2017
  • #410
chiefdave said:
Seems to be taking a long time to count the votes for what looks like a very low turnout.
Click to expand...

Only start at 9am to save money on overtime.
 

Covstu

Well-Known Member
  • May 5, 2017
  • #411
chiefdave said:
Seems to be taking a long time to count the votes for what looks like a very low turnout.
Click to expand...
Maybe the numbers arnt working for them?
 

Captain Dart

Well-Known Member
  • May 5, 2017
  • #412
Looks like the Labour non-entity will win, he is ahead after 1st round in Coventry & Wolverhampton. :emoji_disappointed:
 

Philosoraptor

Well-Known Member
  • May 5, 2017
  • #413
24% turnout in Coventry for Mayor. This is a shambles of epic proportions.
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
  • May 5, 2017
  • #414
Captain Dart said:
Looks like the Labour non-entity will win, he is ahead after 1st round in Coventry & Wolverhampton. :emoji_disappointed:
Click to expand...
Looks like a higher turnout in Solihull than elsewhere has pulled the Conservative candidate back into it. Its being said that the higher turnout in Solihull is over 65s but I can't trace that back to where it was originally sourced from.

If that holds true we'll probably get the same arguments as with the referendum results starting up.
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • May 5, 2017
  • #415
It would be very interesting to see the age demographic of voters in local council elections.

Especially pertinent as there 'appears' to be in a surge in the number of registered voters under 25.

As much as it looks like a rosy picture for the Tories - will that translate the same way come June?

Labour have got to target the youth vote.
 

Captain Dart

Well-Known Member
  • May 5, 2017
  • #416
Street now pulled ahead after polling well in Solihull & Walsall. Could yet go either way.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • May 5, 2017
  • #417
Dianne Abbott meanwhile continues to have facts at her fingertips.

Diane Abbott suffers another disastrous interview as she massively underestimates Labour's election losses
 
Reactions: Kingokings204 and mrtrench

Philosoraptor

Well-Known Member
  • May 5, 2017
  • #418
I don't think it matters which way it goes now with the turnout being so low - should the experiment continue?

76% of the electorate in Coventry not wishing to cast their vote for a mayor. The WMCA project is probably dead in the water even before a mayor is announced.

How can you transfer more powers to this flailing scheme?

Should the scheme have the powers it has in the first place?
 
Last edited: May 5, 2017
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • May 5, 2017
  • #419
Philosorapter said:
I don't think it doesn't matters which way it goes now with the turnout so low - should the experiment continue?

76% of the electorate in Coventry not wishing to cast their vote for a mayor. The WMCA project is probably dead in the water even before a mayor is announced.

How can you transfer more powers to this flailing scheme?

Should the scheme have the powers it has in the first place?
Click to expand...

I saw no point in it whatsoever and didn't vote. Though I did notice cringeworthy adverts in Brummie accents telling me why I should.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • May 5, 2017
  • #420
Grendel said:
I hope they last and I hope it's a crushing majority for the Conservatives. I've now decided I will vote Conservative for the second time in general ejections. It's pathetic to even suggest a Corbyn led party has the remotest hope of forming a government. This clueless rabble needs destroying so that a sensible opposition can begin again
Click to expand...

Will you be there cheering as the next shipment of weapons makes its way to Saudi Arabia, or like others in Mrs May's fan club will you be turning a blind eye to our support of a terror state?
 
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