I will get in from work just as it really gets going at 3amA whole evening of about 150 Portillo moments. Wonderful.
75 Green44% LD, 44% Green, 12% Lab here
A whole evening of about 150 Portillo moments. Wonderful.
I have decided to vote Lib Dem
Big Ed and his Bungee Jump was the highlight of the election campaign
Clint, you’ve got it all wrong mate. This is the most left wing Labour Party we’ve seen in a long time. Put your X in the boxSpoiling ballot paper.
I know you said don't comment but it's not in the options!
Speak your mind mateThey are all bullshitting pricks.
Lib Dem's bouncing back.I have decided to vote Lib Dem
Big Ed and his Bungee Jump was the highlight of the election campaign
That would be the best case scenario. Labour win and Lib Dems the 2nd largest party. It's not going to happen though.Lib Dem's bouncing back.
That would be the best case scenario. Labour win and Lib Dems the 2nd largest party. It's not going to happen though.
Keep the right wing grifters out in the cold and Farage can crawl back under his rock.
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My wife thinks very similar tbh...she will not be voting, i've tried to persuade her to go and put a line through them all and write none across the ballot paper but she's having none of itThey are all bullshitting pricks.
My predictionIdeal result is LD official opposition and Farage to lose Clacton and Labour to have a stonking majority.
I think it’ll be closer. Tories will get 100+ I think, just think people will rally at the last minute and save them and they’ll sneak through a few three ways with Reform and independents. Farage will win, Reform maybe 4-6 seats, Greens 2-4, Lib Dem’s around 60.
Those are my from my ass predictions.
But do we really want more people to vote on just feels without time to consider the options?Nearly over.....thank fuck.
I think they should introduce new election rules that state the voting must take place within 14 days of the date being announced.
Then maybe half the population won't have been bored to tears, drink or drugs.
I still reckon it'll be a shite turnout......
Nearly over.....thank fuck.
I think they should introduce new election rules that state the voting must take place within 14 days of the date being announced.
Then maybe half the population won't have been bored to tears, drink or drugs.
I still reckon it'll be a shite turnout......
Was reading yesterday that a big chunk of the problem with postal votes is the timing of the election. Turns out there’s a reason that elections are traditionally held in May and it’s because people haven’t started going on holiday in any great numbers. So there’s been a far larger number of requests for a postal vote than normally expected as large numbers of people will be on holiday on polling day.Can’t get postal votes turned around in that time, as has been found even with the extended campaign ! Also takes some time for parties to pick their teams etc
I agree this has dragged though. Guess that’s partly because we all kind of know the likely outcome
Difficult to call. Agree that it will be low turnout. The difficulty is polling, there’s an abnormally in Reform. The pollsters have to factor in the popularity of a new party at a GE with higher than usual support for a new party. You Gov actually changed their methodology a week or 2 ago and I think others have too to try and make it more accurate. Problem as I understand it that they use a number of factors including previous election results, previous opinion polling vs actual votes placed etc. to take the sample polling and set that against a far larger number that will actually be real votes. They don’t have that data for Reform and I understand that is causing them a headache. Under You Govs original methodology Labour has a far bigger lead and Reform don’t have as big of a vote share. I also look at footage of reform campaigning and people aren’t turning up in massive numbers to cheer them on, at a few of them counter protests are inflating the numbers of those present and then there’s the Trumpian rally in Birmingham 5000 turned up. Then I compare it to John Majors campaign where he brought his soap box and stood up in public spaces. It really gained momentum and people were turning up in bigger and bigger numbers, he won undecided voters in big numbers and won a GE he wasn’t necessarily expected to win. So basically I wonder if reforms polling flatters to device. You also have to factor people getting to the booth and hesitating, especially in marginal seats (and there’s lots of them this time) and voting one of the 3 main parties instead to keep the other 2 out knowing reform in reality won’t win their particular seat.Ok, if we're in prediction mode.
Labour win large majority, but not quite as big as some think.
Low turnout c. 60-65%
Labour won't win as many seats as Blair did first time round, but could get around 400.
Conservatives may well have their lowest seats ever, but won't get as bad as double figures. Too many will vote for them regardless. Say around 120-150 seats.
SNP to lose a few of their seats due to recent scandals and no longer be the third party but will remain quite popular in Scotland. LD/Labour to take most of those they lose. Say 30 - 35 seats.
LD to become the third party again with around 40-50 seats.
Was a bit worried about Reform taking a few seats but think Farage fucked it (maybe deliberately) with his Russia comments. May get a decent number of overall votes but not many seats/ Might get about 10 seats. Farage to win this time round (then defect to Tories at some point in the future)
Greens could get 3-4, but like Reform get a decent amount of votes but not many seats.
He look like he’s just getting comfortable for a live sex show.
Notice the arrows on the gloves are all facing in the one direction and Nigel is trying to get him out of the picture.
The Green's transgender policy is a little bit worrying.Going to vote either Green or not vote at all. Labour have done absolutely nothing to earn my vote besides simply not being the Tories.
Because they have more radical plans for the environment and on climate change and transportation etc.
I’ve been reading up a fair bit on the NI situation and there is one possible upset on the cards. DUP leader Gavin Robinson could lose his seat to Naomi Long, leader of the Alliance Party. DUP on a knife edge in a couple of other seats too but Robinson would be the big scalp.I've backed under 60% turnout at 9/1. That's the only thing I'm really prepared to put money to. Could be wrong, but felt like the value range.
My predictions:
Unsure on Conservative seats, think around 110 to 120 but odds ranges are far wider and offer no value. I think around 430 Labour seats, the usual NI leaving around 100 mixed for SNP, Green, Clwyd, Lib Dem & Reform. I think Reform will likely be around 15% but only translate to 2 seats.
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