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General Election 2019 thread (1 Viewer)

  • Thread starter Philosoraptor
  • Start date Oct 29, 2019
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B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 10, 2019
  • #5,566
Philosorapter said:
Yes I fully agree.

This one interesting.

The key findings from our final MRP poll | YouGov

Shows the swing in expected new seats for the Tory's. Around 10 are very close to the mark.
Click to expand...

The Scottish situation again highlights what a difference tactical voting could make. In essence far too many seats are too close to call in this model.
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 10, 2019
  • #5,567
SeaSeeEffCee said:
Lying, lying Tories. Must be part of the Tory DNA to not be able to tell the truth.

Click to expand...
I saw this online earlier but didn't post it as I couldn't verify it. Notice the woman's story has also changed from she was hacked to she copied someone else's post.

It also seems that the same fake story was being put out on twitter by hundreds of bot accounts at the same time.
 
Reactions: shmmeee

SeaSeeEffCee

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 10, 2019
  • #5,568
chiefdave said:
I saw this online earlier but didn't post it as I couldn't verify it. Notice the woman's story has also changed from she was hacked to she copied someone else's post.

It also seems that the same fake story was being put out on twitter by hundreds of bot accounts at the same time.
Click to expand...
Oh well, the idiots lapped it up already. I noticed that the posters on here who were treating it like it was fact haven't rushed to apologise for spreading misinformation have they.
 
Reactions: Deleted member 5849 and Sick Boy

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 10, 2019
  • #5,569
Brighton Sky Blue said:
Did it not get the 2017 result almost spot on?
Click to expand...
Yes - but they’ve deviated from that model.
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 10, 2019
  • #5,570
Brighton Sky Blue said:
The Scottish situation again highlights what a difference tactical voting could make. In essence far too many seats are too close to call in this model.
Click to expand...
This is why turnout in the young can have a massive impact.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 10, 2019
  • #5,571
Ian1779 said:
Yes - but they’ve deviated from that model.
Click to expand...

In what way?
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 10, 2019
  • #5,572
Brighton Sky Blue said:
In what way?
Click to expand...
Weighting for voting by age groups... they’ve played down younger vote and overstated (less so) turnout in older people.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 10, 2019
  • #5,573
Ian1779 said:
This is why turnout in the young can have a massive impact.
Click to expand...

Still haven’t made my mind up. Will definitely turn up but will either be a spoiled ballot or Labour vote.
 

stupot07

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 10, 2019
  • #5,574
Grendel said:
Dont worry John Ashworth has sealed the deal
Click to expand...
I think it says a lot more about the Tories, that his so called 'friend' would secretly record him then leak it, for political gains.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 10, 2019
  • #5,575
Brighton Sky Blue said:
Still haven’t made my mind up. Will definitely turn up but will either be a spoiled ballot or Labour vote.
Click to expand...
Don’t give the Tories the satisfaction.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 10, 2019
  • #5,576
Ian1779 said:
Don’t give the Tories the satisfaction.
Click to expand...

It may just come down to being a purely anti-Tory vote. More interesting is the possibility of the Fatso losing his seat
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 10, 2019
  • #5,577
Brighton Sky Blue said:
It may just come down to being a purely anti-Tory vote. More interesting is the possibility of the Fatso losing his seat
Click to expand...
Some decent tactical voting could see IDS, Swinson, Raab and Johnson out of a seat.
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 10, 2019
  • #5,578
Brighton Sky Blue said:
In what way?
Click to expand...
Not sure they're allowing for further gains. Only done a quick calc but it seems to me that Labour have been gaining throughout the whole campaign at a pretty steady rate. If they maintain that past when polling for this MRP finished that potentially takes them to 36 or 37. Doesn't sound much but could be significant in marginals when we're already in the range of a hung parliament.

They also, assuming this is weighted the same as the last MRP they published, seem to have assumed that voter demographics and turnout will be like 2015 rather than 2017. If they are wrong and they are more like 2017, and there is some evidence to suggest they are such as voter registrations (even when allowing for duplicates owning to students needing to register away from uni), that would tend to favour labour. They also seem to be weighting according to Brexit preference but haven't updated from 52/48 despite demographic changes, ie: older voters no longer being with us and younger voters reaching age.

Problem you have when the polls are like this is you're moving into the margin of error and any slight miscalculation could be significant. It will no doubt be a Conservative win but will it be enough to make any significant change from where we were before Johnson decided to have an election?
 
Reactions: Ian1779

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 10, 2019
  • #5,579
Brighton Sky Blue said:
It may just come down to being a purely anti-Tory vote. More interesting is the possibility of the Fatso losing his seat
Click to expand...
If anything illustrates that possibilities of tactical voting Johnsons seat does. If the Greens and Lib Dems stood down and their votes went largely to Labour he'd be screwed!
 

Astute

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 11, 2019
  • #5,580
Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
Like Grendel.....and westcountry....and dom.......

You're nowhere near as quick to get on their backs though.
Click to expand...
I do if they chat shite and make out it is gospel. But the Tories don't get defended for what they have done in the past.
 

Philosoraptor

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 11, 2019
  • #5,581
Tweet of the election so far.

 

Otis

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 11, 2019
  • #5,582
SeaSeeEffCee said:
Oh well, the idiots lapped it up already. I noticed that the posters on here who were treating it like it was fact haven't rushed to apologise for spreading misinformation have they.
Click to expand...
Some normally decent posters too.
 

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 11, 2019
  • #5,583
theferret said:
Your list is probably a lot shorter than it could be, but equally, you could say:


Deficit down from 150 billion to 21 billion.

Number one destination in developed world for overseas investment.

It's all very well pointing out the failings, of which there are many, but there has to be some balance. I wasn't much of a fan of the Blair-Brown government, especially in the later years, but there were achievements. People are so binary about everything.
Click to expand...

have you got a link? It hit 37 billion in October so unless the economy performed miracles in the last 8 weeks, (which is doubtful as it's currently flatlining), I think you're wrong.
 

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
  • Dec 11, 2019
  • #5,584
Astute said:
I do if they chat shite and make out it is gospel. But the Tories don't get defended for what they have done in the past.
Click to expand...

Yet it seems to be fine for you to ‘chat shite’ as you have done in the past and in this post.
 
Last edited: Dec 11, 2019
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 11, 2019
  • #5,585
Sick Boy said:
Yet it’s seems to be fine for you to ‘chat shite’ as you have done in the past and in this post.
Click to expand...

Don’t worry he just puts anyone he disagrees with on ignore...
 
Reactions: Sick Boy
S

SkyblueBazza

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 11, 2019
  • #5,586
Grendel said:
Dont worry John Ashworth has sealed the deal
Click to expand...
Or will people consider shopping him to be a despicable act simply typifying the current 'cannot be trusted' vogue being applied to the Tory party daily?

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 11, 2019
  • #5,587
Just when you think you’ve seen it all this election campaign Johnson’s hiding in a fridge to avoid answering questions on GMB!
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 11, 2019
  • #5,588
chiefdave said:
I saw this online earlier but didn't post it as I couldn't verify it. Notice the woman's story has also changed from she was hacked to she copied someone else's post.

It also seems that the same fake story was being put out on twitter by hundreds of bot accounts at the same time.
Click to expand...

We were worried about Russian interference but the autocratic disinformation campaign is coming from inside the U.K.

If the Tories win this our democracy is fucked. This shit will become normal.
 
Reactions: Ian1779

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 11, 2019
  • #5,589
SkyblueBazza said:
Or will people consider shopping him to be a despicable act simply typifying the current 'cannot be trusted' vogue being applied to the Tory party daily?

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Mate. Get your head out of the sand. This isn’t some petty political thing. The Tory campaign has been disgraceful and full of verifiable lies.

If you want to support that, fine. But don’t pretend it’s made up.
 
Reactions: fernandopartridge
S

SkyblueBazza

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 11, 2019
  • #5,590
shmmeee said:
Mate. Get your head out of the sand. This isn’t some petty political thing. The Tory campaign has been disgraceful and full of verifiable lies.

If you want to support that, fine. But don’t pretend it’s made up.
Click to expand...

Get off your high-horse. The whole campaign across all the parties has descended to the same depths (or even lower) of 20-30yrs ago with petty...yes PETTY tittle-tattle & cheap point scoring.
All have been shown up to have little in terms of credible plans.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 11, 2019
  • #5,591
SkyblueBazza said:
Get off your high-horse. The whole campaign across all the parties has descended to the same depths (or even lower) of 20-30yrs ago with petty...yes PETTY tittle-tattle & cheap point scoring.
All have been shown up to have little in terms of credible plans.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

No. Objectively you can’t “both sides” this. 88% Tory ads misleading cars 0% Labour is the starkest fact I can give you.

You’ve decided Brexit matters more. Own that.
 
Reactions: fernandopartridge

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 11, 2019
  • #5,592
shmmeee said:
No. Objectively you can’t “both sides” this. 88% Tory ads misleading cars 0% Labour is the starkest fact I can give you.

You’ve decided Brexit matters more. Own that.
Click to expand...

yeah but both sides, yeah but both sides, (repeat ad nauseum until you fool yourself into believing it).
 
Reactions: Sick Boy and Deleted member 5849
C

ccfchoi87

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 11, 2019
  • #5,593
Does anyone on this thread expect Corbyn to be PM following this election? Ian seems confident.
 
S

SkyblueBazza

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 11, 2019
  • #5,594
shmmeee said:
No. Objectively you can’t “both sides” this. 88% Tory ads misleading cars 0% Labour is the starkest fact I can give you.

You’ve decided Brexit matters more. Own that.
Click to expand...
So Labour all good, Tory all bad?

Tories have been shown to be lying. Labour claim to have fully costed plans that have been shown to be incredible.

Lesser of two evils & all that...which depends upon which policies have the biggest impact upon you as an individual according to how you prioritise things.

That to you & a few others on here seems to mean they are racist, gullible, stupid, ignorant, selfish etc

If you cannot handle others having different opinions, or cannot handle being able to convince others that your priorities are more important - you should refrain from commenting

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk
 

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 11, 2019
  • #5,595
SkyblueBazza said:
So Labour all good, Tory all bad?

Tories have been shown to be lying. Labour claim to have fully costed plans that have been shown to be incredible.

Lesser of two evils & all that...which depends upon which policies have the biggest impact upon you as an individual according to how you prioritise things.

That to you & a few others on here seems to mean they are racist, gullible, stupid, ignorant, selfish etc

If you cannot handle others having different opinions, or cannot handle being able to convince others that your priorities are more important - you should refrain from commenting

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

the research Shmmeee is on about was conducted by a fact checking organisation called First draft, all their working out is available if you can be bothered to look so I'm not sure what people having different opinions has got to do with it.
 
Reactions: Deleted member 5849, stupot07 and Otis

Otis

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 11, 2019
  • #5,596
ccfchoi87 said:
Does anyone on this thread expect Corbyn to be PM following this election? Ian seems confident.
Click to expand...
Nope. Best he can hope for is a hung parliament.
 

Otis

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 11, 2019
  • #5,597
clint van damme said:
the research Shmmeee is on about was conducted by a fact checking organisation called First draft, all their working out is available if you can be bothered to look so I'm not sure what people having different opinions has got to do with it.
Click to expand...
Yup. Facts, not opinion.
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 11, 2019
  • #5,598
SkyblueBazza said:
Tories have been shown to be lying. Labour claim to have fully costed plans that have been shown to be incredible.
Click to expand...
You're not comparing like with like. Conservatives have been shown to be lying by a non-partisan independent body, the Labour costing plans you say have been shown to be incredible is not fact, there are some who believe them to be incredible but there are literally hundreds of economists who are backing them so its at best debatable. Hardly the same thing as outright lying.
 

SkyBlueDom26

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 11, 2019
  • #5,599
Let’s back Boris tomorrow! And get Brexit done! Don’t want that terrorist sympathiser Corbyn anywhere near number 10
 
Reactions: westcountry_skyblue

SkyBlueDom26

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 11, 2019
  • #5,600
Brighton Sky Blue said:
Still haven’t made my mind up. Will definitely turn up but will either be a spoiled ballot or Labour vote.
Click to expand...
What an idiot you really are
 
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