Fixtures to come (1 Viewer)

Otis · Feb 15, 2012

Don't want to piss on anyone's chips here, but there has been a lot of talk about the games we have left against the bottom teams.

Well, I think we need to remember that not only will these be hard, but that we have a fair few tough away fixtures to come too.

Away games that look really tough on paper and where we don't have the best of records anyway, include,

Leshtur away

Hull away

Burnley away

Cardiff away

Southampton away.

Bearing in mind our dreadful away record, that only compounds the fact that these teams usually beat us on their own turf anyway and are also chasing promotion to boot.

SkyBlue · Feb 15, 2012

Look at our home games though

Doncaster
Portsmouth
Millwall
Barnsley
Crystal Palace
Peterborough

Otis · Feb 15, 2012

But odds are that we are not going to win all of those.

There are 6 home games there. Say if we win 4 of those then that will be a really good return. An excellent return. 4 home wins out of those 6 will give us a return of 12 points only put us on 37 points in total. Nowhere near enough to escape relegation.Still means we need points from away games.

We simply cannot reasonably expect to win all our home games anyway. Another Ipswich could be just around the corner.

Otis · Feb 15, 2012

Okay, let's predict City's points haul in these last 15 matches to come.

Forest A
Barnsley H
Leshtur A
Palace H
Birmingham H
Watford A
Cardiff A
Portsmouth H
Hull A
Peterborough H
Bristol A
Burnley A
Millwall H
Doncaster H
Southampton A

For what it's worth I predict;

Forest D
Barnsley W
Leshtur L
Palace W
Birmingham L
Watford D
Cardiff L
Portsmouth D
Hull L
Peterborough W
Bristol D
Burnley L
Millwall D
Doncaster W
Southampton D

That's 4 wins and 6 draws. That would give us 18 points from 15 games and 43 points in total. Not sure that will be quite enough.

FinnishSkyBlue · Feb 15, 2012

Let's hope Southampton are already promoted when we face them like Norwich last season so we could nick at least a draw..

covcity4life · Feb 15, 2012

not many of botom 6 are winning though,it could possibly only take 42-46 pts to stay up,especialy if pompey get docked points

i can see us taking 20pts from those finsl games which would put us on 45pts

nervy times

Otis · Feb 15, 2012

FinnishSkyBlue said:
Let's hope Southampton are already promoted when we face them like Norwich last season so we could nick at least a draw..

Well that was my thinking. Think they will already be promoted or definitely in the play-offs by then and this may be a game where they go and rest players.

mark82 · Feb 15, 2012

Forest A - win
Barnsley H - win
Leshtur A - lose
Palace H - win
Birmingham H - lose
Watford A - draw
Cardiff A - lose
Portsmouth H - win
Hull A - lose
Peterborough H - win
Bristol A - draw
Burnley A - lose
Millwall H - win
Doncaster H - win
Southampton A - lose

7 wins, 2 draws. Easy(ish) run in. 23 more points. I know that's incredibly optimistic but looking at the games we have left we can only blame ourselves if we don't stay up.

Otis · Feb 15, 2012

covcity4life said:
not many of botom 6 are winning though,it could possibly only take 42-46 pts to stay up,especialy if pompey get docked points

i can see us taking 20pts from those finsl games which would put us on 45pts

nervy times

Well in that I have predicted no away wins for us. Let's hope we get one from somewhere. Would make all the difference.

SkyBlue · Feb 15, 2012

If we play like we did for the majority of last night:

Forest W
Barnsley W
Leshtur L
Palace W
Birmingham L
Watford D
Cardiff L
Portsmouth W
Hull L
Peterborough W
Bristol D
Burnley L
Millwall W
Doncaster W
Southampton L

7 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses
23 points, puts us on 48 for the season could be enough looking at the teams around us

What will probably happen:
Forest L
Barnsley W
Leshtur L
Palace D
Birmingham L
Watford L
Cardiff L
Portsmouth D
Hull L
Peterborough W
Bristol D
Burnley L
Millwall W
Doncaster W
Southampton L

4 wins, 8 losses, 3 draws
15 points putting us on 40 for the season, will not be enough

Otis · Feb 15, 2012

mark82 said:
Forest A - win
Barnsley H - win
Leshtur A - lose
Palace H - win
Birmingham H - lose
Watford A - draw
Cardiff A - lose
Portsmouth H - win
Hull A - lose
Peterborough H - win
Bristol A - draw
Burnley A - lose
Millwall H - win
Doncaster H - win
Southampton A - lose

7 wins, 2 draws. Easy(ish) run in. 23 more points. I know that's incredibly optimistic but looking at the games we have left we can only blame ourselves if we don't stay up.

You have there us winning 6 out of our 7 reamining home games. Huge ask that.

mark82 · Feb 15, 2012

Otis said:
You have there us winning 6 out of our 7 reamining home games. Huge ask that.

It is but they are all winnable games.

oldskyblue58 · Feb 15, 2012

I think what ever we realistically do we are now reliant on other teams doing worse or going into administration. To target 7 or 8 wins from 15 games plus a couple or three draws is a hell of an ask for a team that rarely achieves such form in the last 10 years but i guess all things are possible still. Still see us bottom 3 come end of season but having put up a decent fight

kg82 · Feb 15, 2012

Otis said:
You have there us winning 6 out of our 7 reamining home games. Huge ask that.

That might be true, but I'd have also said winning 4 out of our last 5 home games wasn't something we were likely to do, but we've done it.

Otis · Feb 15, 2012

With you on this OSB.

I'm still predicting relegation.

Otis · Feb 15, 2012

kg82 said:
That might be true, but I'd have also said winning 4 out of our last 5 home games wasn't something we were likely to do, but we've done it.

Well yep, but there are always games with dodgy penalties and freak goals and sending offs and bad luck that can be a huge factor in whether you win a game or not. Can see us doing well at home, but I would say 5 wins out of 7 would be probably too much for us to be honest.

Brighton Sky Blue · Feb 15, 2012

Look at it this way. There's 45 points left up for grabs; dropping 20 of those puts us bang on 50 at the end of the season, which may/may not be enough, but for simplicity's sake it'll do as a ballpark figure. Dropping 20 is roughly equivalent to say a maximum of 7 defeats-provided all the rest are won, or drawing 10 and winning 5. As going unbeaten for 16 straight games is extreeeemely unlikely, realistically speaking we can't lose more than say 3 or 4 matches, otherwise we're under real pressure to go out and win the rest.

kg82 · Feb 15, 2012

Otis said:
Well yep, but there are always games with dodgy penalties and freak goals and sending offs and bad luck that can be a huge factor in whether you win a game or not. Can see us doing well at home, but I would say 5 wins out of 7 would be probably too much for us to be honest.

Realistically I'm with you on that, but heart rules over head in football, always will! So while there's hope, I'll be hoping! This game coming up is the most important game in 10 years in my eyes, we cannot afford to lose it.

coundonskyblue · Feb 15, 2012

The problem is I can see us having the best end to a season we have had for years, yet it still might not be enough.

It just shows how far behind we had fell.

EleanorRigby · Feb 15, 2012

Forest A--win
Barnsley H--win
Leicester A--win
Palace H--win
Brum H--win
Watford A--win
Cardiff A--win
Pompey H--win
Hull A--win
Posh A--win
Bristol.C. A--win
Burnley A--win
Millwall H--win
Donny H--win
Saints A--win

pissed it

SuperFred · Feb 15, 2012

a little too unrealistic eleanor, we have a terrible record at the crisp bowl

kg82 · Feb 15, 2012

EleanorRigby said:
Forest A--win
Barnsley H--win
Leicester A--win
Palace H--win
Brum H--win
Watford A--win
Cardiff A--win
Pompey H--win
Hull A--win
Posh A--win
Bristol.C. A--win
Burnley A--win
Millwall H--win
Donny H--win
Saints A--win

pissed it

Play-offs here we come!!

Paxman II · Feb 15, 2012

It's all semantics. If we knew what was going to happen we would all do the pools each week. (oh do they still do that?)

As said the other day I felt we might see an unexpected turn and beat Leeds and Forest. Half way to that already. That's the thing about prediction....as with the prediction league on this board. Whatever you permeate you can guarantee yopu won't get it 100% correct, no matter how hard you try.

In those games listed above and predicted you have to remember those teams form as of today and what it will be on the day we meet them? Hull or whoever may be having a dreadful run. So you can't predict based on what you know today.
Like I said...if we could then we would all be rich.

For me it's a more 'rule of thumb' approach and law of averages.

IF we can beat Forest and rise out of the bottom 3 (with Pompeys points reduction) then from that day on you start the 'measuring' process again because everything is different after each win, loss or draw.
I think if we are out the bottom 3 next week then we will survive based on renewed optimism it would give the squad.
It's one game at a time.....

Otis · Feb 15, 2012

It's all well and good people talking about beating Forest, but surely Forest will be chomping at the bit over this one and must be so, so confident of a much needed win.

1. They are at home.
2. We have a very poor record up there.
3. We have lost 8 away games in a row.
4. We have only scored 7 away goals all season.

Forest must be total favourites here. A lot of City fans bigging up our chances after just one single win last night.

I would be absolutely thrilled with a draw on Saturday, as it all points to a Forest win.

kg82 · Feb 15, 2012

Otis said:
It's all well and good people talking about beating Forest, but surely Forest will be chomping at the bit over this one and must be so, so confident of a much needed win.

1. They are at home.
2. We have a very poor record up there.
3. We have lost 8 away games in a row.
4. We have only scored 7 away goals all season.

Forest must be total favourites here. A lot of City fans bigging up our chances after just one single win last night.

I would be absolutely thrilled with a draw on Saturday, as it all points to a Forest win.

Not at all. Look at Forests form overall, then look at their home form.

1. 3 wins at home all season
2. Haven't won at home in 8 games
3. Only scored 1 goal in those 8 games
4. 2 points from a possible 24

Something's got to give, either their home form or our away form. Who thinks the first goal is highly, highly important?!

Otis · Feb 15, 2012

Me!!!!

I just keep reflecting on our away form. 8 straight defeats. Just think every home team must really fancy their chances against us. It's been an almost guaranteed 3 points for teams all season.

Paxman II · Feb 15, 2012

Difference is Forest can't buy a win at the moment and we won well last night and can smell safety. Like I said a few post back, one game at a time and it's about the form on the day.
Forest will be up for this 6 pointer but think the City will just as revved up.

dongonzalos · Feb 15, 2012

Forest D
Barnsley W
Leshtur D
Palace W
Birmingham D
Watford L
Cardiff L
Portsmouth D
Hull D
Peterborough W
Bristol D
Burnley L
Millwall W
Doncaster W
Southampton L

6 Draws, 4 Wins, 4 defeats

43 points and I think it maybe just enough we will survive on goal difference

kg82 · Feb 15, 2012

dongonzalos said:
Forest D
Barnsley W
Leshtur D
Palace W
Birmingham D
Watford L
Cardiff L
Portsmouth D
Hull D
Peterborough W
Bristol D
Burnley L
Millwall W
Doncaster W
Southampton L

6 Draws, 4 Wins, 4 defeats

43 points and I think it maybe just enough we will survive on goal difference

That would be 47 points wouldn't it?

EDIT: Nope, I've read it properly now!!

Also, one game at a time is the way but my God, this game is important.

SkyBlue_Bear83 · Feb 15, 2012

Forest A W
Barnsley H W
Leshtur A D
Palace H W
Birmingham H L
Watford A D
Cardiff A L
Portsmouth H W
Hull A L
Peterborough H W
Bristol A D
Burnley A L
Millwall H W
Doncaster H W
Southampton A L
7W 3D 5L
We must be a due a shock result against one of the better sides soon surely?
Optimistic I know I would say more like 5 W 4D 6L, would 44 points be enough to survive?

Considering the fact we still have to play all the teams around us it is still in our own hands.

Jack Griffin · Feb 15, 2012

I'm experiencing the usual wave of post victory optimism, I just hope we can get something from the Forest game & I can cling on to it this time.

Otis · Feb 16, 2012

I hope I am wrong but I have a bad feeling about this game.

For sure the one team Nottingham Forest want to play right now is Coventry City, the worst away team in the entire football league.

They may well be on a terrible run but this is a game they truly must believe they will win.

If we lose on Saturday it is going to be a real morale killer and it will be 9 away defeats on the trot.

Astute · Feb 16, 2012

We are going to beat Forest. Nimely will run the show. Portsmouth will lose 10 points tomorrow. They will lose on saturday. We will be 3 points clear of the bottom 3. Some will still want AT out.

Just my opinion, but could well happen. Forest have the worse home form in this division. 3 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats. Portsmouth away are 2 wins, 5 draws and 9 defeats. Barnsley home is 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats.

Otis · Feb 16, 2012

I really hope you are right, Astute.

It's been such a dreadful season for us away from the Ricoh that I can't hold that optimism. Wouldn't ssurprise me at all if we went the season without winning away, I think after a while it becomes a mental problem as much as anything else.

Let's hope Thorn can change that mindset.

The one thing I do strongly disagree with you though on is that if we win people will still be calling for Thorn's head. I think you are wrong. If we win on Saturday I don't think you will find a single poster on here calling for the manager to be sacked.

EleanorRigby · Feb 16, 2012

In simple terms we need to win more games than those in what is now a 4 team mini league, Donny, Forest and Pompey. Should anyone higher slip down all the better. To win 50% (7 or 8) would do it i believe. My hopes are based on we haven't had the purple run yet most teams have each season winning three or four on the trot is well overdue.

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