Fickle Fans (1 Viewer)

bigfatronssba · Mar 6, 2014

There seems to be a few amongst us who believes we are the most fickle fans in the country and that is the cause of our downfall.

However this argument can be completely flawed simply by looking at the figures.

Definition of fickle fans: A group of fans who turn up when things are going well, who dessert when things are going badly.

Therefore the club with the biggest difference in highest and lowest number of people would be the most fickle.

Below are various clubs fans numbers between the 1992/93 - 2012/13 seasons, compared against our own Sky Blues:

Club	Lowest	Highest	% Change
Wigan	1748	20233	1057.49%
Hull	3413	24816	627.10%
Swansea	2996	20370	579.91%
Cardiff	3420	23194	578.19%
Fulham	4191	25394	505.92%
Reading	4782	23862	399.00%
Middlesborough	10004	34386	243.72%
Plymouth	4945	16420	232.05%
Bradford	5708	18511	224.30%
Oldham	4129	12859	211.43%
Sunderland	15344	46791	204.95%
Bolton	9062	26795	195.69%
Swindon	5440	15274	180.77%
Preston	5689	14889	161.72%
Portsmouth	8269	20108	143.17%
Stoke	11426	27226	138.28%
Sheff Utd	12901	30512	136.51%
Birmingham	12328	28883	134.29%
Derby	14327	32432	126.37%
Chelsea	18787	41902	123.04%
West Ham	16001	34720	116.99%
Southampton	14685	31699	115.86%
Wolves	13598	28874	112.34%
Man City	22725	47045	107.02%
Leicester	15362	30983	101.69%
Coventry	10997	21180	92.60%
Norwich	14444	26672	84.66%
Leeds	21572	39752	84.28%
Sheff Wed	17821	28709	61.10%
Nottm Forest	17208	25916	50.60%

bigfatronssba · Mar 6, 2014

Apart from Sheff Wed and Forest I don't think many can be classed as less fickle than us.

fernandopartridge · Mar 6, 2014

There are a lot of variables at play, for example Man City's previous gates were limited by stadium capacity (you could argue the same for Leicester to a certain extent and certainly Southampton)

fernandopartridge · Mar 6, 2014

Anyway, we're up to second in this table after this season with a whopping 959% differential based on a 2k average at Sixfields!

Europe here we come.

bigfatronssba · Mar 6, 2014

fernandopartridge said:
There are a lot of variables at play, for example Man City's previous gates were limited by stadium capacity (you could argue the same for Leicester to a certain extent and certainly Southampton)

Maine Road had a capacity of 35k, some 12k higher than their lowest average.

Filbert St had a capacity of 22k, some 7k higher than their lowest average.

Southampton you have a point, but they still had a low average of 17k in the championship at St Marys.

RegTheDonk · Mar 6, 2014

fernandopartridge said:
There are a lot of variables at play, for example Man City's previous gates were limited by stadium capacity (you could argue the same for Leicester to a certain extent and certainly Southampton)

Agree on the variables fernando. If we did the same formula but included this season's gates, we'd probably top the table (or prop it up).

Grendel · Mar 6, 2014

bigfatronssba said:
Maine Road had a capacity of 35k, some 12k higher than their lowest average.

Filbert St had a capacity of 22k, some 7k higher than their lowest average.

Southampton you have a point, but they still had a low average of 17k in the championship at St Marys.

If this is to have any relevance you need to cap the capacity at the entry point. If a club exceeds the original capacity the stat becomes worthless.

Lorksalordy · Mar 6, 2014

We are quite clearly by far the worst and deserve everything we get. The most striking proof of this is achieved by comparing the early round JPT attendance to the semi final as everyone knows that at all other clubs these would be identical due to them only being populated by die hard long term season ticket holding types that order pies by the dozen at half time. This of course occurs at wholly owned stadia as no real fan would support anything else but a club that is concentrating on anything other than financially viability in the long term with forthcoming FFP rules.

Spionkop · Mar 6, 2014

Nice research Ron and well worth looking at. I think the thought is though that as a very big city our crowds don't and didn't always reflect that.
Fernando's variables is point.
A few of us have been at Highfield Road with crowds hovering around 8,000 in the top division. How the management of the club kept going in the face of that I don't know.
Sure we've been pretty starved of any real progress.
Just don't think people realise how powerful they are as a 12th man. (Just as long as it is in Coventry).

Grendel · Mar 6, 2014

Spionkop said:
Nice research Ron and well worth looking at. I think the thought is though that as a very big city our crowds don't and didn't always reflect that.
Fernando's variables is point.
A few of us have been at Highfield Road with crowds hovering around 8,000 in the top division. How the management of the club kept going in the face of that I don't know.
Sure we've been pretty starved of any real progress.
Just don't think people realise how powerful they are as a 12th man. (Just as long as it is in Coventry).

The "analysis"'is deeply flawed and highly selective.

dongonzalos · Mar 6, 2014

Spionkop said:
Nice research Ron and well worth looking at. I think the thought is though that as a very big city our crowds don't and didn't always reflect that.
Fernando's variables is point.
A few of us have been at Highfield Road with crowds hovering around 8,000 in the top division. How the management of the club kept going in the face of that I don't know.
Sure we've been pretty starved of any real progress.
Just don't think people realise how powerful they are as a 12th man. (Just as long as it is in Coventry).

One FA Cup win
A highest ever finish in the top division of 7th.

Most clubs suffer highs and lows.

We had a little high followed by an eternity of a flat line.

Two tiny blips of success. Followed by steady decline and alienation of fans by the owners.

Coventry's support is immense if you think about it.
Matched only by the untapped potential

bigfatronssba · Mar 6, 2014

Spionkop said:
Nice research Ron and well worth looking at. I think the thought is though that as a very big city our crowds don't and didn't always reflect that.
Fernando's variables is point.
A few of us have been at Highfield Road with crowds hovering around 8,000 in the top division. How the management of the club kept going in the face of that I don't know.
Sure we've been pretty starved of any real progress.
Just don't think people realise how powerful they are as a 12th man. (Just as long as it is in Coventry).

Not technically true, odd crowds may have dropped to 8k, but in the top divison the lowest it ever got was 10k.

In fact until this year the lowest it ever got in any division was 9k.

bigfatronssba · Mar 6, 2014

Grendel said:
The "analysis"'is deeply flawed and highly selective.

How exactly?

stupot07 · Mar 6, 2014

fernandopartridge said:
There are a lot of variables at play, for example Man City's previous gates were limited by stadium capacity (you could argue the same for Leicester to a certain extent and certainly Southampton)

Yep lots of variables and football/PL in particular is much more popular now than 20 years ago, plus 1 or two were in league two (Swansea, Plymouth, Bradford, etc.).

Much better to look at the last 10-12 years.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk - so please excuse any spelling or grammar errors

bigfatronssba · Mar 6, 2014

stupot07 said:
Yep lots of variables and football/PL in particular is much more popular now than 20 years ago, plus 1 or two were in league two (Swansea).

Much better to look at the last 10-12 years.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk - so please excuse any spelling or grammar errors

Surely real fans go and watch their team regardless of the division their in?

lordsummerisle · Mar 6, 2014

bigfatronssba said:
Surely real fans go and watch their team regardless of the division their in?

Then we should be averaging what we had at Highfield Road in the Prem, even with the much reduced capacity to the Ricoh.

Tbh, think that the Highfield Road size was about right, only hit capacity once or twice even during the "good years" there.

stupot07 · Mar 6, 2014

bigfatronssba said:
Surely real fans go and watch their team regardless of the division their in?

Ofcourse but the 'swing' is always going to be greater.

The best comparison would looking at the 4-6 team who were in the PL in around 5 years of us getting relegated, especially the 5-6 that also got relegated to league one.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk - so please excuse any spelling or grammar errors

Grendel · Mar 6, 2014

bigfatronssba said:
How exactly?

For many reasons that will bore people if Igp through them.

However if you answer this one question honestly then it will be sufficient.

If Coventry were in the premier league next season what would the average attendance be?

will am i · Mar 6, 2014

Grendel said:
For many reasons that will bore people if Igp through them.

However if you answer this one question honestly then it will be sufficient.

If Coventry were in the premier league next season what would the average attendance be?

instead of answering a question with a question please bore us with the answer to the original question.

GaryPendrysEyes · Mar 6, 2014

It's obvious innit Coventry people are diffrent from everybodies else in England which makes em fickle.
Poor old Sisu getting them deviant fookers.

QED

Grendel · Mar 6, 2014

will am i said:
instead of answering a question with a question please bore us with the answer to the original question.

How can I? The series of stats presented are meaningless and that one question answered will prove it.

If you are going to try and prove anything you need to look at similar clubs with similar crowd potential over a very small time period who have experienced similar fortunes.

I would suggest you look at;

Southampton
Norwich
Forest
Man city (sort of relevant)
Leicester
Coventry
Two Sheffield clubs

Look at the season before relegation, look at the relegation season and the first season post relegation abd see what the deviation is.

I don't know the answer perhaps Ron will tell us.

Grendel · Mar 6, 2014

dongonzalos said:
One FA Cup win
A highest ever finish in the top division of 7th.

Most clubs suffer highs and lows.

We had a little high followed by an eternity of a flat line.

Two tiny blips of success. Followed by steady decline and alienation of fans by the owners.

Coventry's support is immense if you think about it.
Matched only by the untapped potential

If we were a flat line there would surely be little deviation?

GaryPendrysEyes · Mar 6, 2014

Ive already posted the answer above-- its Fernandos Feory, Coventry is full of deviants like none other in the UK (probs the world!)

Spionkop · Mar 6, 2014

Ron,

1982 - v Forest 9,720
1983 - v Sunderland 8, 190
1983 - v Everton 9,319
1983 - v Notts Co 8,320
1983 - v Norwich 8,305
1983 - v Luton 9,644
1983 - v Ipswich 9,550
1983 - v Brighton 8,054
1984 - v Swansea 9,946
1984 - v Man City 9,520
1984 - v Watford 8,689
1984 - v Forest 9,720
1984 - v Ipswich 8,790
1984 - v WBA 9,410
1985 - v Wolves 8,246
1985 - v Forest 9,818
1985 - v QPR 8,988
1985 - v Chelsea 8,721
1986 - v Watford 7,499

etc etc etc.
Top division.
In our cup winning season our opening game at home against Arsenal - 11,182
1990 home against Sheffield - 9,970
The pathetic attendance list is endless.

Macca · Mar 6, 2014

What is it with city fans and self loathing???

Macca · Mar 6, 2014

We have no long term highs to compare with the lows? As for Crewe I m sure there are some who wished there would have been 8000 there basking in their own self importance

shmmeee · Mar 6, 2014

fernandopartridge said:
There are a lot of variables at play, for example Man City's previous gates were limited by stadium capacity (you could argue the same for Leicester to a certain extent and certainly Southampton)

As were ours.

Grendel · Mar 6, 2014

Spionkop said:
Ron,

1982 - v Forest 9,720
1983 - v Sunderland 8, 190
1983 - v Everton 9,319
1983 - v Notts Co 8,320
1983 - v Norwich 8,305
1983 - v Luton 9,644
1983 - v Ipswich 9,550
1983 - v Brighton 8,054
1984 - v Swansea 9,946
1984 - v Man City 9,520
1984 - v Watford 8,689
1984 - v Forest 9,720
1984 - v Ipswich 8,790
1984 - v WBA 9,410
1985 - v Wolves 8,246
1985 - v Forest 9,818
1985 - v QPR 8,988
1985 - v Chelsea 8,721
1986 - v Watford 7,499

etc etc etc.
Top division.
In our cup winning season our opening game at home against Arsenal - 11,182
1990 home against Sheffield - 9,970
The pathetic attendance list is endless.

Our capacity at one point was below 12,000. The year we played Worcester city in the cup the roof fell in on the sky blue stand closing it. Worcester wanted to switch the tie to their ground as their capacity was higher.

Still, as you are such a fan and i am such a troll I guess you knew that anyway didn't you?

Edit: the other reason crowds were understated was the brilliant initiative jimmy hill launched regarding season tickets for the first season of the all seated. You are a real fan so you will know exactly why that meant people came in for free.

shmmeee · Mar 6, 2014

Some context for this discussion: http://www.european-football-statistics.co.uk/attn/nav/attnengleague.htm

Makes interesting reading.

Hobo · Mar 6, 2014

Macca said:
We have no long term highs to compare with the lows? As for Crewe I m sure there are some who wished there would have been 8000 there basking in their own self importance

You are absolutely right with that one Macca

dongonzalos · Mar 6, 2014

Grendel said:
If we were a flat line there would surely be little deviation?

Our best finish in the premier league was 11th
Our best finish in the top division was 7th
We had the FA Cup win

Other than that we got to the top division and did nothing.

Since then we declined and then we inherited owners who had no regards for the fans.

Like I say immense fan base

letsallsingtogether · Mar 6, 2014

bigfatronssba said:
Maine Road had a capacity of 35k, some 12k higher than their lowest average.

Filbert St had a capacity of 22k, some 7k higher than their lowest average.

Southampton you have a point, but they still had a low average of 17k in the championship at St Marys.

So you are saying that they had sell outs every week while in there old grounds?

shmmeee · Mar 6, 2014

Found my attendance spreadsheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuIkUXePUzK9dDA1ZWNucjlsMTNpd1lSQ291NTJpX3c&usp=sharing

Axes are confusing. The blue line is our division, higher being a lower division (because I suck at Google charts).

This one is something I call relative attendance Vs relative position. Basically it charts our league position in the football pyramid to our attendance as a percentage of our highest ever. It's designed to show how the attendance is linked to league position.

This one is our league finish (not controlled for the division we're in) compared to attendance. The higher the red line the higher we finished in the division. The blue line is attendance.

stupot07 · Mar 6, 2014

dongonzalos said:
Our best finish in the premier league was 11th
Our best finish in the top division was 7th
We had the FA Cup win

Other than that we got to the top division and did nothing.

Since then we declined and then we inherited owners who had no regards for the fans.

Like I say immense fan base

We finished 6th in 1969/70 season which is why we played in Europe (Fairs Cup) the season after.

You say we got to the top division and did nothing, yet managed to have one of the longest consecutive runs there. Our fans never appreciated how lucky we were to survive year on year in the top flight.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk - so please excuse any spelling or grammar errors

The Gentleman · Mar 6, 2014

fernandopartridge said:
Anyway, we're up to second in this table after this season with a whopping 959% differential based on a 2k average at Sixfields!

Europe here we come.

Booze cruise?

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