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Do you want to discuss boring politics? (23 Viewers)

  • Thread starter mrtrench
  • Start date Jun 14, 2020
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S

SBT

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,026
shmmeee said:
It’s called FPTP
Click to expand...
If one of the two major parties is hijacked by a far-right or far-left insurgency who can capitalise on an unpopular incumbent or political rival at the right time then it can easily happen. Just look at the US.
 
P

PVA

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,027
It was well worth trashing the country to take back control. All that sweet sweet control. Oh.


 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,028
SBT said:
If one of the two major parties is hijacked by a far-right or far-left insurgency who can capitalise on an unpopular incumbent or political rival at the right time then it can easily happen. Just look at the US.
Click to expand...
The Republicans have had a bat shit wing going back to the 60s, Goldwater allowed LBJ to paint him as far right
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,029

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,030
SBT said:
If one of the two major parties is hijacked by a far-right or far-left insurgency who can capitalise on an unpopular incumbent or political rival at the right time then it can easily happen. Just look at the US.
Click to expand...
Look at the recently departed home secretary for example

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 
Reactions: Deleted member 5849

stupot07

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,031
Hunt has paid for tax cuts with unrealistic spending cuts which create huge problems for next chancellor, IFS says

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has released its full assessment of the autumn statement. In his summary, Paul Johnson, the IFS director, says Jeremy Hunt’s tax cuts are “paid for by planned real cuts in public service spending” which are not credible. He says this means Hunt has left a huge problem for whoever is chancellor after the next election. He explains:

The net result is that Mr Hunt is, by the narrowest of tiny margins, still on course to meet his (poorly designed) fiscal rule that debt as a fraction of national income should be falling in the last year of the forecast period. In reality debt is set to be just about flat at around 93 per cent of national income over the whole period. And that is on the basis of a series of questionable, if not plain implausible, assumptions. It assumes that many aspects of day to day public service spending will be cut. It assumes a substantial real cut in public investment spending. It assumes that rates of fuel duties will rise year on year with inflation – which they have not done in more than a decade and they surely will not do next April. It assumes that the constant roll over of “temporary” business rates cuts will stop. It assumes, of course, that the economy doesn’t suffer any negative shocks.

Like his predecessors Mr Hunt has taken a modest improvement in the public finance forecasts and spent most of it. He has spent up front and told us he will meet his targets largely by unspecified fiscal restraint at some point in the future. What he will do in March if the OBR downgrades its forecasts we do not know. Any such downgrading would leave him with a big headache. More importantly he or his successor is going to have the mother and father of a headache when it comes to making the tough decisions implied by this statement in a year or two’s time.


And here is Johnson’s conclusion.

The fiscal forecasts have not in any real sense got better. Debt is not declining over time. Taxes are still heading to record levels. Spending is also due to stay high by historic standards, not least because of high debt interest payments. But those payments plus pressures on health and pension spending mean current plans are for some pretty serious cuts across other areas of public spending. How did Mr Hunt afford tax cuts when real economic forecasts got no better? He banked additional revenue from higher inflation, and pencilled in harsher cuts to public spending.

I’m not sure I’d want to be the chancellor inheriting this fiscal situation in a year’s time.



Labour are fooked if they get in to power.



Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,032
PVA said:
It was well worth trashing the country to take back control. All that sweet sweet control. Oh.


Click to expand...
Is this not just the level of the immigration with the government's chosen controls in place?

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,033
stupot07 said:
Hunt has paid for tax cuts with unrealistic spending cuts which create huge problems for next chancellor, IFS says

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has released its full assessment of the autumn statement. In his summary, Paul Johnson, the IFS director, says Jeremy Hunt’s tax cuts are “paid for by planned real cuts in public service spending” which are not credible. He says this means Hunt has left a huge problem for whoever is chancellor after the next election. He explains:

The net result is that Mr Hunt is, by the narrowest of tiny margins, still on course to meet his (poorly designed) fiscal rule that debt as a fraction of national income should be falling in the last year of the forecast period. In reality debt is set to be just about flat at around 93 per cent of national income over the whole period. And that is on the basis of a series of questionable, if not plain implausible, assumptions. It assumes that many aspects of day to day public service spending will be cut. It assumes a substantial real cut in public investment spending. It assumes that rates of fuel duties will rise year on year with inflation – which they have not done in more than a decade and they surely will not do next April. It assumes that the constant roll over of “temporary” business rates cuts will stop. It assumes, of course, that the economy doesn’t suffer any negative shocks.

Like his predecessors Mr Hunt has taken a modest improvement in the public finance forecasts and spent most of it. He has spent up front and told us he will meet his targets largely by unspecified fiscal restraint at some point in the future. What he will do in March if the OBR downgrades its forecasts we do not know. Any such downgrading would leave him with a big headache. More importantly he or his successor is going to have the mother and father of a headache when it comes to making the tough decisions implied by this statement in a year or two’s time.


And here is Johnson’s conclusion.

The fiscal forecasts have not in any real sense got better. Debt is not declining over time. Taxes are still heading to record levels. Spending is also due to stay high by historic standards, not least because of high debt interest payments. But those payments plus pressures on health and pension spending mean current plans are for some pretty serious cuts across other areas of public spending. How did Mr Hunt afford tax cuts when real economic forecasts got no better? He banked additional revenue from higher inflation, and pencilled in harsher cuts to public spending.

I’m not sure I’d want to be the chancellor inheriting this fiscal situation in a year’s time.



Labour are fooked if they get in to power.



Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

No fan of Tories but wheeling out austerity cheerleaders the IFS is counter productive. They speak in the exact government as household terms that see the country in the utter state it is in.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 
W

wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,034
How many homes do we build per annum, assume it fits the status quo?
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,035
This is the gross figure:

Number of houses built in the UK 1949-2023, by tenure| Statista

Most of the houses completed in the UK in the past years were built by the private sector, making up the great majority of homes completed in 2020.
www.statista.com

Not sure what the net figure is.

I guess you could do a 'new houses per head of population' type calculation to show the rate, recent years look very poor given the rate of population growth.

This is partly down to the cartel behaviours of the big housebuilders, who control supply to keep prices up. It certainly shows though that local authority capacity was not replaced post right to buy.
 
W

wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,036
Doesn't provide the figures but last I saw was 350,000 -400,000 don't know it's different now?
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,037
SBT said:
If one of the two major parties is hijacked by a far-right or far-left insurgency who can capitalise on an unpopular incumbent or political rival at the right time then it can easily happen. Just look at the US.
Click to expand...
It will never happen here. The generally is very centrist and appoints centrist governments

Johnson isn’t a far right politician - essentially a liberal as was Cameron

The election system by default stops this and is one of its successes as to gain any form of power you have to appeal to people who naturally lean either to the right or left

In a PR system you’d get more votes for minor parties and extreme representation
 
Reactions: nicksar and SkyBlueCharlie9
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,038
Sick Boy said:
Meloni is a huge Sunak fan, which says it all about the current government.
Click to expand...
Wait until Braverman's leader of the opposition.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,039
Deleted member 5849 said:
Wait until Braverman's leader of the opposition.
Click to expand...

She is a fantasist with a minority of support in the parliamentary party - she’s a fringe character with an overblown sense of her own importance and support
 
Reactions: SkyBlueCharlie9
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,040
Grendel said:
She is a fantasist with a minority of support in the parliamentary party - she’s a fringe character with an overblown sense of her own importance and support
Click to expand...
Well I hope you're right, but I have a sneaking fear she'll get enough to stand and go through. The one saving grace is that the Tories at least only submit the top two to their members for election, but there's enough ruthless cynicism there in the hunt for jobs. See how they all piled behind Truss after all!
 
S

SBT

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,041
Grendel said:
It will never happen here. The generally is very centrist and appoints centrist governments

Johnson isn’t a far right politician - essentially a liberal as was Cameron

The election system by default stops this and is one of its successes as to gain any form of power you have to appeal to people who naturally lean either to the right or left

In a PR system you’d get more votes for minor parties and extreme representation
Click to expand...
I find your certainty quite surprising given that you’ve previously suggested that actual terrorists could be viable candidates to lead one of the top two parties.

When a tiny minority of oddball primary voters are given the right to pick party leaders (or in the last two cases, the Prime Minister!), and when anti-incumbency is one of the strongest forces in modern politics, the odds for extremists to suddenly rise to the top seem alarmingly high and I don’t see how FPTP inherently stops that.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,042
SBT said:
I find your certainty quite surprising given that you’ve previously suggested that actual terrorists could be viable candidates to lead one of the top two parties.

When a tiny minority of oddball primary voters are given the right to pick party leaders (or in the last two cases, the Prime Minister!), and when anti-incumbency is one of the strongest forces in modern politics, the odds for extremists to suddenly rise to the top seem alarmingly high and I don’t see how FPTP inherently stops that.
Click to expand...

What actual terrorist - another misleading quotation no doubt in its way. It must really gall you that the pro EU countries across Europe have far more radical far right support than the uk.
 
S

SBT

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,043
Grendel said:
What actual terrorist - another misleading quotation no doubt in its way. It must really gall you that the pro EU countries across Europe have far more radical far right support than the uk.
Click to expand...

Here’s your quote:

Grendel said:
If labour had one ounce of common sense they'd accept defeat internally and target Scotland only on this election as without Scotland they never will win. They won't though. They will blunder into oblivion and The Terrorist thug McDonnell will take the crown.
Click to expand...

As for the Netherlands, I certainly find the unabashed Islamophobia of Wilder’s policies galling to say the least. Do you?
 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,044
PVA said:
It was well worth trashing the country to take back control. All that sweet sweet control. Oh.


Click to expand...

What a shambles. These are crazy numbers. If anyone thinks that we can keep absorbing 1.3m additional people into the country every two years, where public services are already at breaking point and housing is in short supply, they’re mad.

The Tories were done anyway, even more so now. We’ve had a Home Secretary focussed solely on the ‘stop the boats’ nonsense when we appear to have no control at all over the ‘legal’ numbers.

Just looked at the breakdown and student numbers appear to be x2-x3 2019 (pre covid) figures. This years figure includes 100k student dependents ! Work as reason is x4 2019 figures. what’s going on…have we just stopped working or studying in this country ?!


eason for ImmigrationWorkStudyFamilyHumanitarian routesOtherAsylumTotal
YE June 1989,000126,00065,0006,00022,00039,000347,000
YE June 2080,000124,00068,0004,00017,00038,000331,000
YE June 2195,000137,00066,0009,00026,00036,000368,000
YE June 22198,000320,00061,000157,00037,00075,000848,000
YE June 23322,000378,00070,00083,00025,00090,000968,000
 
W

wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,045
I'm not sure coming to study is an issue, I mean the home contingent should be reducing as we're told getting a degree is not for everyone, TBF I'd expected more families due to our stance on HK, Afghanistan etc.
 
W

wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,046
Oh sorry I see they're in a separate category.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,047
SBT said:
Here’s your quote:



As for the Netherlands, I certainly find the unabashed Islamophobia of Wilder’s policies galling to say the least. Do you?
Click to expand...

John McDonell is a terrorist sympathiser - why you indulge in this child like behaviour I have no idea

I have also stated despite the Sinn Fein suck up behaviour he is at least a politician of some gravitas and conviction.
 
Last edited: Nov 23, 2023
S

SBT

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,048
Grendel said:
John McDonell is a terrorist sympathiser - why you indulge in this child like behaviour I have no idea

I have also stated despite the Sinn Fein suck up behaviour he is at least a politician of some gravitas and conviction.
Click to expand...
You also said you would vote for him to be the next PM, hence my confusion as to why you’re so sure that extremists could never win support in this country.

Did you miss my question about Wilders’ policies re: Islam btw? What are your thoughts?
 
P

PVA

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,049
Grendel said:
She is a fantasist with a minority of support in the parliamentary party - she’s a fringe character with an overblown sense of her own importance and support
Click to expand...

She's very well supported by Conservative party members.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,050
PVA said:
She's very well supported by Conservative party members.
Click to expand...

Is she?
 
P

PVA

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,051
Grendel said:
Is she?
Click to expand...

Yes.

While her approval rating across the country has declined it has at the same time risen sharply amongst party members.
 
Reactions: nicksar

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,052
PVA said:
Yes.

While her approval rating across the country has declined it has at the same time risen sharply amongst party members.
Click to expand...

I have no idea what the membership believe or if there is any evidence to suggest either way. One thing is for certain - she will not make it onto the ballot anyway if and when it arises
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,053
CCFCSteve said:
What a shambles. These are crazy numbers. If anyone thinks that we can keep absorbing 1.3m additional people into the country every two years, where public services are already at breaking point and housing is in short supply, they’re mad.

The Tories were done anyway, even more so now. We’ve had a Home Secretary focussed solely on the ‘stop the boats’ nonsense when we appear to have no control at all over the ‘legal’ numbers.

Just looked at the breakdown and student numbers appear to be x2-x3 2019 (pre covid) figures. This years figure includes 100k student dependents ! Work as reason is x4 2019 figures. what’s going on…have we just stopped working or studying in this country ?!


eason for ImmigrationWorkStudyFamilyHumanitarian routesOtherAsylumTotal
YE June 1989,000126,00065,0006,00022,00039,000347,000
YE June 2080,000124,00068,0004,00017,00038,000331,000
YE June 2195,000137,00066,0009,00026,00036,000368,000
YE June 22198,000320,00061,000157,00037,00075,000848,000
YE June 23322,000378,00070,00083,00025,00090,000968,000
Click to expand...

Public services are only at breaking point because your favoured party slashed their budgets. Young immigrants are no great burden on public services in any case, they are more likely to even worth within them.

The study numbers will include lots of people that are net contributors to the UK economy.

What do you think the right level of immigration is?
 
Reactions: AOM and SBT

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,054
I think it’s fair to say that any party membership capable of voting Truss leader is more than capable of voting Braverman leader. It’s not exactly a membership with a track record in common sense. And after the next GE the parliamentary party may have little choice but to put her forward in a member’s vote. If that happens there’s every chance that she’ll be the next leader of the Conservative Party.
 
P

PVA

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,055
The absolute state of that top 5.



 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,056
skybluetony176 said:
I think it’s fair to say that any party membership capable of voting Truss leader is more than capable of voting Braverman leader. It’s not exactly a membership with a track record in common sense. And after the next GE the parliamentary party may have little choice but to put her forward in a member’s vote. If that happens there’s every chance that she’ll be the next leader of the Conservative Party.
Click to expand...

she got eliminated at stage two last time
 
W

wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,057
Grendel said:
she got eliminated at stage two last time
Click to expand...
She put in her lot behind sunak didn't she.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,058
wingy said:
She put in her lot behind sunak didn't she.
Click to expand...

I thought truss but she lost and she’d lose again to Bedenock from that side of the party
 
W

wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,059
Thought it was some commenter on the TV but I guess they were just speculating tbf.yeah I'd imagine she be up there.
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 23, 2023
  • #32,060
To be fair the parliamentary tory party will look different after the next election, I guess who they nominate depends on who keeps their seats and what wing of the party the remaining tories are from.
 
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