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Do you want to discuss boring politics? (22 Viewers)

  • Thread starter mrtrench
  • Start date Jun 14, 2020
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David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,591
interest rate rise today
 
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CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,592
David O'Day said:
interest rate rise today
Click to expand...

Got to happen unfortunately. The Fed raised theirs again by 0.75 yesterday and then came out and said that they expect the terminal rate (when they finally stop raising) to be higher than anticipated as their core inflation hasn’t started coming down as hoped

Basically Americas fiscal policy* of chucking money at everyone and everything causing massive demand led inflation has fucked things for a lot of countries…especially the EU and ourselves that have also got the wars energy inflation to deal with…and then Trussenomics (although impact of that’s pretty much unwound now). International shitshow !

*in conjunction with post covid supply/demand issues
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete
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CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,593
0.75 as expected. Good news is they’re expecting our terminal rate to be less than many anticipate, bad news is that’s because the recession will do the job for them in relation to inflation

So another bit of related good news is they’re now expecting inflation to peak at around 11% not 13%+ . guessing reason is partly government energy assistance and also recession doing the job as mentioned above
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,594
CCFCSteve said:
0.75 as expected. Good news is they’re expecting our terminal rate to be less than many anticipate, bad news is that’s because the recession will do the job for them in relation to inflation

So another bit of related good news is they’re now expecting inflation to peak at around 11% not 13%+ . guessing reason is partly government energy assistance and also recession doing the job as mentioned above
Click to expand...

Yay?
 
Reactions: Deleted member 5849

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,595
shmmeee said:
Yay?
Click to expand...
only 11% wow
 
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PVA

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,596
The pound has been hammered again today
 

Skybluefaz

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,597
BBC News - Bank of England expects UK to fall into longest ever recession

Bank of England expects UK to fall into longest ever recession

The Bank of England raises interest rates to 3%, marking the biggest rise for 33 years.
www.bbc.co.uk
 

Skybluefaz

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,598
More great news. Bridgen broken multiple lobbying rules too I see.
 
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wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,599
CCFCSteve said:
0.75 as expected. Good news is they’re expecting our terminal rate to be less than many anticipate, bad news is that’s because the recession will do the job for them in relation to inflation

So another bit of related good news is they’re now expecting inflation to peak at around 11% not 13%+ . guessing reason is partly government energy assistance and also recession doing the job as mentioned above
Click to expand...
You often state about USA handouts Steve but our £400B handouts have played a part too.
The biggest issue to me the is USA more hawkish rate rises not being carried out in conjunction with international partner's.
I find that being more exploitative of the situation .
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,600
Not sure it was the handouts that’s caused inflation, it’s all supply side isn’t it? Fuel and manufacturing ramping up post covid.
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,601
CCFCSteve said:
0.75 as expected. Good news is they’re expecting our terminal rate to be less than many anticipate, bad news is that’s because the recession will do the job for them in relation to inflation

So another bit of related good news is they’re now expecting inflation to peak at around 11% not 13%+ . guessing reason is partly government energy assistance and also recession doing the job as mentioned above
Click to expand...
I’d hate to see what you thought bad news was…
 
Reactions: Deleted member 5849, CCFCSteve and clint van damme
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wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,602
shmmeee said:
Not sure it was the handouts that’s caused inflation, it’s all supply side isn’t it? Fuel and manufacturing ramping up post covid.
Click to expand...
And labour?
Lots of folk came out of it with a lot of surplus cash I think.
 
Reactions: CCFCSteve

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,603
wingy said:
And labour?
Lots of folk came out of it with a lot of surplus cash I think.
Click to expand...

Labour?

Yeah totally I’m sure they did, but it’s happening the same everywhere regardless of level of support from the govt isn’t it? Is there a correlation?
 

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,604
Skybluefaz said:
More great news. Bridgen broken multiple lobbying rules too I see.
Click to expand...

A Bridgen too far?
 
Reactions: wingy
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wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,605
Now what did he do that some superiors didn't?
 
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CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,606
wingy said:
You often state about USA handouts Steve but our £400B handouts have played a part too.
The biggest issue to me the is USA more hawkish rate rises not being carried out in conjunction with international partner's.
I find that being more exploitative of the situation .
Click to expand...

100% agree about furlough, excessive government borrowing etc mate. In hindsight it definitely caused problems but most would argue it was probably right call at the time. BOE also carried on QE too long and were late to raise rates (as we’re all central banks)

My point about US is they were handing out covid cheques to people on $100k+ per annum. I think I read at the time that if you were a couple with two kids and earned upto $130-140k you were give $11k for nothing . All the QE boosted asset prices, supply side was squeezed globally and then in addition even recently US government has continued with known inflationary policies leading to the Fed having raise rates aggressively and every other central bank having to follow otherwise currencies will get smashed (even more ! - neither ECB nor BoE would be raising rates as quickly without Fed as we’ve got different problems)

All countries/governments have had their own part to play in inflation due to covid assistance but US has done far more than most and as global reserve currency it’s had a massive knock on effect worldwide

Edit - just to clarify I’m not saying we wouldn’t be having major issues anyway, it’s just US has made it worse/harder for a lot of central banks
 
Last edited: Nov 3, 2022
Reactions: wingy
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CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,607
Ian1779 said:
I’d hate to see what you thought bad news was…
Click to expand...

I did make the point that the good news was caused by the bad/worse news
 
Reactions: Ian1779
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CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,608
shmmeee said:
Not sure it was the handouts that’s caused inflation, it’s all supply side isn’t it? Fuel and manufacturing ramping up post covid.
Click to expand...

Some if it, especially at the start post covid and for us/Europe it’s majority energy, but US is far more demand led (and all the QE)
 
Reactions: shmmeee

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,609
This part stood out to me, no doubt we'll hear a lot of 'its like this everywhere' over the coming months and years but the BoE seem to suggest that's not the case
It is a picture of a painful economic period, with the UK performing worse than the US and the Eurozone.
Click to expand...
 
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CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,610
chiefdave said:
This part stood out to me, no doubt we'll hear a lot of 'its like this everywhere' over the coming months and years but the BoE seem to suggest that's not the case
Click to expand...

It is but to different degrees and with impact at different times. It’s up to the government to come out and make it less painful…I’m not overly confident
 
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wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,611
2 yrs recession?
Isn't that a depression?
 

Skybluefaz

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,612
clint van damme said:
A Bridgen too far?
Click to expand...
Over troubled water

Doesn't work tbf. You win.
 
Reactions: CCFCSteve and wingy
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wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,613
Well you take that and then factor in 4-5 yrs threshold stagnation?
 
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PVA

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,614
No bounce for Sunak. They're in deep shit. Love to see it.


 
Reactions: Terry Gibson's perm
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wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,615
PVA said:
No bounce for Sunak. They're in deep shit. Love to see it.


Click to expand...
The party's not the leadership?
I had to be careful there over the spelling of parties.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,616
chiefdave said:
This part stood out to me, no doubt we'll hear a lot of 'its like this everywhere' over the coming months and years but the BoE seem to suggest that's not the case
Click to expand...

Brexit inflation as well id guess.
 
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CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,617
shmmeee said:
Brexit inflation as well id guess.
Click to expand...

Is that you Tony ?! . There might be a small part but probably tiny in grand scheme of things

This was on a finance programme I saw the other day (im a dull man I know !) I think France and Spain are around 7-8% due to government assistance/suppression of energy costs. I’ve not fact checked but recognise the Holland and Germany numbers


 
Reactions: Grendel

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,618
clint van damme said:
A Bridgen too far?
Click to expand...
He’s not to be trussed.
 
Reactions: dutchman, CCFCSteve and wingy

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,619
CCFCSteve said:
Is that you Tony ?! . There might be a small part but probably tiny in grand scheme of things

This was on a finance programme I saw the other day (im a dull man I know !) I think France and Spain are around 7-8% due to government assistance/suppression of energy costs. I’ve not fact checked but recognise the Holland and Germany numbers


View attachment 27014
Click to expand...

Anecdotally the NL one sounds about right.
 
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PVA

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,620
 
Reactions: duffer and wingy
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wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,621
PVA said:
Click to expand...
Indeed.
Meanwhile G-MOAL has been situated in the Coventry area again all day,
 

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,622
PVA said:
Click to expand...

I'm sure the Tax payers alliance will soon be on the case
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,623
2 year recession incoming.........
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,624
clint van damme said:
2 year recession incoming.........
Click to expand...

Takes us right up to the GE. Fucking shit but at least it should get shot of Rishi Rich.
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 3, 2022
  • #23,625
shmmeee said:
Takes us right up to the GE. Fucking shit but at least it should get shot of Rishi Rich.
Click to expand...
Probably not rishis riches though
 
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