Do you want to discuss boring politics? (26 Viewers)

fernandopartridge · Sep 26, 2022

Deleted member 5849 said:
Practical question. Interest rates going up, and we currently have the mortgage in place to buy a property. But, surely, prices will go down as interest rates go up?

So... better to sit tight as we are, or bail? A new mortgage would mean paying more for the same amount, but surely, *surely* house prices will dip at least a little?!?

I don't know what the correction was post GFC, 20% ish? Though I guess that differed from place to place.

If you take the mortgage as is fixed for a long period you're likely to get a better rate than next time you look.

In the scenario that the property you're buying decreases in value by 10% over the next year - interest rates are due to go up significantly anyway which may also impact the LTV of your mortgage which could push your payments right up. I'd probably be inclined to get in now with a long term fix, unless you're buying to sell on it is only a paper value.

torchomatic · Sep 26, 2022

Not sure what all the fuss is about regarding the National Anthem at Conference. It's just showing respect. It was sung at Luton and Brum - I didn't join in as I'm not a monarchist - but I have no issue with those who wanted to sing it. I guess it will be sung on Saturday too as it's our first home game since the Queen died. Again, I won't sing, but some will. We won't do it again and neither will Labour.

More important is the news that some letters of no confidence are going in for Truss already. The Tories are imploding.

fernandopartridge · Sep 26, 2022

@Nick can we get a clown emoji added to anybody who has admitted to voting Conservative in 2019 please?

skybluetony176 · Sep 26, 2022

The best argument to have stuck with Boris seems to be Liz Truss as PM, if they get rid of Truss the best argument for keeping Truss will be who is available to replace her.

If this lot were true patriots they’d call a GE now, the Tories are already scrapping the bottom of the barrel for talent, it’s not right that they choose another PM worse than the last one.

Nick · Sep 26, 2022

fernandopartridge said:
@Nick can we get a clown emoji added to anybody who has admitted to voting Conservative in 2019 please?

I am a donor.

torchomatic · Sep 26, 2022

fernandopartridge said:
@Nick can we get a clown emoji added to anybody who has admitted to voting Conservative in 2019 please?

We need a Grendel emoji. That would work just as well.

robbiekeane · Sep 26, 2022

$1.03 for the pound

a fucking embarrassment

PVA · Sep 26, 2022

I wonder if they'll find a way to blame this on Gordon Brown?

skybluetony176 · Sep 26, 2022

PVA said:
I wonder if they'll find a way to blame this on Gordon Brown?

Apparently it’s traders being unpatriotic. And anyone noticing is also unpatriotic.

Ian1779 · Sep 26, 2022

robbiekeane said:
$1.03 for the pound

a fucking embarrassment

TaKiNg BaCk CoNtRoL….

skybluetony176 · Sep 26, 2022

Get ready for Rishi 2,

skybluetony176 · Sep 26, 2022

CCFCSteve said:
The afternoon of the ‘mini budget’ I heard 1% next month. BoE shouldve probably raised by 0.75% last month anyway but they’ll have to rise even more now

Just seen the markets are pricing in rises of 1.75% by end of Nov

The markets don’t like to see minimal/no fiscal discipline. It was one of the issues I had with Corbyn but to be honest I’d prefer a couple of his investment spends than some of what Truss/Kwarteng are doing. The markets mayve accepted the energy plan on its own, but stuff like the top rate tax cut (which is relative small policy in grand scheme of things) is probably viewed as totally unnecessary at present and demonstrates that lack of discipline

You can’t blame the BOE for not raising interest rates enough pre budget, especially a budget that the government was selling as a mini budget. This is on the government. The market is shitting it’s pants of the back of the budget not the actions of the BOE.

Sky Blue Pete · Sep 26, 2022

Deleted member 5849 said:
Practical question. Interest rates going up, and we currently have the mortgage in place to buy a property. But, surely, prices will go down as interest rates go up?

So... better to sit tight as we are, or bail? A new mortgage would mean paying more for the same amount, but surely, *surely* house prices will dip at least a little?!?

You’d think they may crash

Razzle Dazzle Dean Gordon · Sep 26, 2022

Deleted member 5849 said:
Practical question. Interest rates going up, and we currently have the mortgage in place to buy a property. But, surely, prices will go down as interest rates go up?

So... better to sit tight as we are, or bail? A new mortgage would mean paying more for the same amount, but surely, *surely* house prices will dip at least a little?!?

What sort of rate have you got? They're increasing rapidly so any saving you make on the purchase price you could lose in higher interest rates anyway. I've got 3 sections to my mortgage currently (2 much smaller chunks taken out for major works on the house), the smaller 2 revert to the SVR in March next year, November next year and then the main mortgage in March 2024, can't decide whether to take the hit on early repayment (and much higher payments now) at fixing on a much higher rate than i'm currently on...or sitting tight and hoping rates have come right down by this time next year.

robbiekeane · Sep 26, 2022

Ian1779 said:
TaKiNg BaCk CoNtRoL….

wE’lL tRaDe WiTh AuStRaLiA

chiefdave · Sep 26, 2022

Razzle Dazzle Dean Gordon said:
What sort of rate have you got? They're increasing rapidly so any saving you make on the purchase price you could lose in higher interest rates anyway. I've got 3 sections to my mortgage currently (2 much smaller chunks taken out for major works on the house), the smaller 2 revert to the SVR in March next year, November next year and then the main mortgage in March 2024, can't decide whether to take the hit on early repayment (and much higher payments now) at fixing on a much higher rate than i'm currently on...or sitting tight and hoping rates have come right down by this time next year.

Fortunately I've got a couple of years left of my fix but just checked the best I could get now from my current provider, CBS, and my monthly payments would increase about 50% even before another hike in base rate.

skybluetony176 · Sep 26, 2022

Deleted member 5849 said:
Practical question. Interest rates going up, and we currently have the mortgage in place to buy a property. But, surely, prices will go down as interest rates go up?

So... better to sit tight as we are, or bail? A new mortgage would mean paying more for the same amount, but surely, *surely* house prices will dip at least a little?!?

What a conundrum. Glad I’m not in your position. There’s so many potential variables. Assuming you have a fixed rate on the mortgage agreement? If so how long is it fixed for? If mortgage rates go through the roof at least short term how exposed are you going to be to having a mortgage that you can’t afford when your fixed rate ends? I think in your shoes I’d be working on the expectation that the rates are going to continue to rise for the next year, maybe 2 with the expectation that at the end of your fix term you could be looking at another 4% on what it currently is,

It’s so hard to predict the market but I think it’s right to assume that prices are going to at least stall if not start falling, the risk of negative equity wouldn’t bother me too much because I think ultimately the value will come back. The risk overpaying now compared to in a years time albeit with a far more expensive mortgage repayments.

Can’t help but feel ultimately it’s a dammed if you do dammed if you don’t situations.

Razzle Dazzle Dean Gordon · Sep 26, 2022

chiefdave said:
Fortunately I've got a couple of years left of my fix but just checked the best I could get now from my current provider, CBS, and my monthly payments would increase about 50% even before another hike in base rate.

If I bit the bullet and fix now I reckon we're talking an extra £300 a month. there must be loads of people out there who can't afford that in any circumstances. GE isn't until 2024 is it so a marked change in direction to effect some change seems remote in the short-term too.

Sky Blue Pete · Sep 26, 2022

Razzle Dazzle Dean Gordon said:
What sort of rate have you got? They're increasing rapidly so any saving you make on the purchase price you could lose in higher interest rates anyway. I've got 3 sections to my mortgage currently (2 much smaller chunks taken out for major works on the house), the smaller 2 revert to the SVR in March next year, November next year and then the main mortgage in March 2024, can't decide whether to take the hit on early repayment (and much higher payments now) at fixing on a much higher rate than i'm currently on...or sitting tight and hoping rates have come right down by this time next year.

Same literally the same for me. I think it’s a wait and see if the whole thing Implodes. Can’t help feeling sorry for some of the utility companies that had to go to the wall. I think things are happening so fast that even by the end of the year there could be a general election

CCFCSteve · Sep 26, 2022

skybluetony176 said:
You can’t blame the BOE for not raising interest rates enough pre budget, especially a budget that the government was selling as a mini budget. This is on the government. The market is shitting it’s pants of the back of the budget not the actions of the BOE.

I’m not blaming them at all. My post was quite clear what/who is to blame for markets reaction

My comment was that I thought they should’ve raised 0.75% last week, even without the budget. This would’ve been the same as ECB and Feds recent rises

For what it’s worth I also thought BoE should’ve raised rates earlier and stopped printing money sooner. Nothing to do with current market reaction, just my view

Sky Blue Pete · Sep 26, 2022

Sky Blue Pete said:
Same literally the same for me. I think it’s a wait and see if the whole thing Implodes. Can’t help feeling sorry for some of the utility companies that had to go to the wall. I think things are happening so fast that even by the end of the year there could be a general election

I am getting a little anxious over it and a little tearful

skybluetony176 · Sep 26, 2022

What a mess the country is in. Me and the wife were reminiscing last night about how we were saying in 2009 that at least all this happening now means our children will leave school into a better economic environment than friends of ours who had kids much much younger than us and their kids were left or just leaving school, my eldest has just entered her GCSE year and I’m now doubting that this shit will be sorted and the economic prospects of the country will be any more positive by the time she’s completed A levels in 2024. 12 wasted years in sorting out a world banking crash in 2008. The Tories have just made it worse with every turn.

Terry Gibson's perm · Sep 26, 2022

We renewed our mortgage last year on a five year fixed just looked and it would be £202 per month if we were doing it now with the same lender and £150 with another.

It is already causing problems as houses used to sell in the first few days in my area now it’s taking weeks or months.

Northants Sky Blue · Sep 26, 2022

Deleted member 5849 · Sep 26, 2022

fernandopartridge said:
I don't know what the correction was post GFC, 20% ish? Though I guess that differed from place to place.

If you take the mortgage as is fixed for a long period you're likely to get a better rate than next time you look.

In the scenario that the property you're buying decreases in value by 10% over the next year - interest rates are due to go up significantly anyway which may also impact the LTV of your mortgage which could push your payments right up. I'd probably be inclined to get in now with a long term fix, unless you're buying to sell on it is only a paper value.

Will reply to your's as much as anybody's(!)

Yeah, it's inevitable that if the offer lapses, the next offer will cost more to receive the same amount. However, over the past 18 months or so, what we've been able to afford has also decreased, as house prices have risen. It's quite a large deposit vs mortgage at least.

It's also complicated by the fact that after the survey (yes @chiefdave it seems I hired a diligent one in the end ) we have to renegotiate the price. It also means the works needed doing mean we probably have to hang on where we're currently living for a few months - the original plan was to rent it out, but then the plan changed to sell it after the work had been done... but that risks buying high, and selling low!

One thing I am grateful is that the mortgage advisor recommended fixing for two years, and I thought he was mad and went against that to go for five years. I think I'll probably be proved right(!)

skybluetony176 · Sep 26, 2022

Terry Gibson's perm said:
We renewed our mortgage last year on a five year fixed just looked and it would be £202 per month if we were doing it now with the same lender and £150 with another.

It is already causing problems as houses used to sell in the first few days in my area now it’s taking weeks or months.

Noticed that too Terry. Everything in Rugby was selling pretty much the moment it went on the market, a house around the corner from us has had the for sale board up for 4 weeks now, not seen that in our area for a good couple of years.

Sky Blue Pete · Sep 26, 2022

Terry Gibson's perm said:
We renewed our mortgage last year on a five year fixed just looked and it would be £202 per month if we were doing it now with the same lender and £150 with another.

It is already causing problems as houses used to sell in the first few days in my area now it’s taking weeks or months.

Good timing!!

Terry Gibson's perm · Sep 26, 2022

Sky Blue Pete said:
Good timing!!

Just lucky and normally we only do two years and did five this time I wish we had done ten.

Sky Blue Pete · Sep 26, 2022

Terry Gibson's perm said:
Just lucky and normally we only do two years and did five this time I wish we had done ten.

Sure

Deleted member 5849 · Sep 26, 2022

Terry Gibson's perm said:
Just lucky and normally we only do two years and did five this time I wish we had done ten.

Even now, I'd be mildly confident things would settle down after five years.

Five years is far enough away to plan, at least, if the worst happens and it's still shit.

Terry Gibson's perm · Sep 26, 2022

Deleted member 5849 said:
Even now, I'd be mildly confident things would settle down after five years.

Five years is far enough away to plan, at least, if the worst happens and it's still shit.

Did it for five years as I can’t be bothered to do all the paperwork and general pissing about.

Deleted member 5849 · Sep 26, 2022

CCFCSteve said:
The markets don’t like to see minimal/no fiscal discipline. It was one of the issues I had with Corbyn but to be honest I’d prefer a couple of his investment spends than some of what Truss/Kwarteng are doing.

Worth reiterating. They're doing everything they took Corbyn to task for suggesting in terms of borrow huge wadges of cash from seemingly nowehere, without a fraction (or, indeed, any!) of his social conscience!

At least he was doing because he felt it was for the good of the majority!

Deleted member 5849 · Sep 26, 2022

Ken Clarke slams Kwarteng's mini-budget as like something 'usually tried in Latin American countries without success'
Ken Clarke, the former chancellor and a Conservative peer, has condemned the mini-budget as the sort of plan “usually tried in Latin American countries without success”. In an interview on Radio 4’s The World This Weekend, he also said he was expecting a serious recession this winter.

He said:

I don’t accept – I never have, the Conservative party never has – the overall premise of the budget, which is that you make tax cuts for the wealthiest 5%, and it makes them work so much harder, and [there’s a] rush to invest. I’m afraid that’s the kind of thing that’s usually tried in Latin American countries without success.

I do not think you stimulate growth by cutting taxes on the better-off, or taxes on business. If it was so simple, we would have got rid of taxes all together some time ago.

What the increased spending power … is going to do is run the risk of further stimulating inflation. And we’re going into a serious inflationary recession this winter.

He also said there was nothing Thatcherite about what Liz Truss was doing.

We’re going into over 100% debt [of GDP]. We’re heading in the Italian direction. That is going to be a problem, a very great problem, in the short term if it leads to a collapse in the pound and the loss of confidence in our economy. We’re going to drive investment away, not attract it.

I don’t think anybody I was ever in government with would have contemplated a budget like this.

PVA · Sep 26, 2022

I moved house in February. The mortgage advisor recommended I take a 2 year fixed, my dad said I should take a 5 year.

Went with the old man's advice thankfully!

Philosoraptor · Sep 26, 2022

Any time someone mentions a 5-year plan, I just want to play this.

Five-year plans of the Soviet Union - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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