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Do you want to discuss boring politics? (39 Viewers)

  • Thread starter mrtrench
  • Start date Jun 14, 2020
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Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,061
David O'Day said:
It's not going to turn into a Nuclear conflict lads even Putin can grasp mutually assured destruction

also the wests nuclear arsenal is in far better knick than russias
Click to expand...

Suppose he goes in and attempts a full invasion. What realistically happens next? Economic sanctions as the tanks roll on Kiev?
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,062
Brighton Sky Blue said:
Suppose he goes in and attempts a full invasion. What realistically happens next? Economic sanctions as the tanks roll on Kiev?
Click to expand...

Don’t worry


 
Reactions: Marty

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,063
Brighton Sky Blue said:
Then really he could conquer Ukraine without much security concern
Click to expand...

while not being as big as the russian army the ukraine has a fucking large army and it is well supplied by the west. There are more regular Ukraine army personnel than Russia has camped on it's borders

It's not a US vs Grenada situation
 
Reactions: CCFCSteve

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,064
Brighton Sky Blue said:
Suppose he goes in and attempts a full invasion. What realistically happens next? Economic sanctions as the tanks roll on Kiev?
Click to expand...

He has to fight a very large and well equiped Ukraine army. It's bigger than any EU states army and bigger than the UKs. If you add the reservists as well it is around a million strong.

While not as big as the Russian army it's no pushover and to properly invade the Russians are going have to throw most of their army at it.

The Ukraine army is also far better equiped than the Russians due to western aid.

It would likely be a long drawn out and bogged down conflict
 

Evo1883

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,065
David O'Day said:
It's not going to turn into a Nuclear conflict lads even Putin can grasp mutually assured destruction

also the wests nuclear arsenal is in far better knick than russias
Click to expand...
Russia have the most nuclear warheads in the world , more than every major western power combined, its not about how much they are polished

It would take more nuclear warheads to destroy Russia than it would to destroy western Europe for example .. ultimately they have enough power to destroy eachother if they wished
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,066
Evo1883 said:
Russia have the most nuclear warheads in the world , more than every major western power combined, its not about how much they are polished
Click to expand...

Not it's about if they will work

But that has fuck all to do with MAD which is the knowledge that a Russian nuclear strike would result in a a massive western strike that would see both sides destroyed.
 

Evo1883

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,067
David O'Day said:
Not it's about if they will work

But that has fuck all to do with MAD which is the knowledge that a Russian nuclear strike would result in a a massive western strike that would see both sides destroyed.
Click to expand...

Exactly so what does putin have to fear from western nuclear power ? Nothing is the answer

It's not even a realistic option
 

Evo1883

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,068
Nuclear power is dick waving and that's it .. nobody will use them
 

Marty

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,069
Having weak leaders in the west allows this kinda stuff to happen.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,070
Marty said:
Having weak leaders in the west allows this kinda stuff to happen.
Click to expand...


It happened throughout most of the Cold War despite a good number of ‘strong’ Western leaders. Though here the US is led by a senile fool, Britain is led by a clown impersonator, France by a man with ‘little man’ syndrome and Germany’s hands have been tied since 1945.

China may well be kingmaker
 
P

PVA

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,071
Brighton Sky Blue said:
Suppose he goes in and attempts a full invasion. What realistically happens next? Economic sanctions as the tanks roll on Kiev?
Click to expand...

Probably. No one wants a war with Russia so it'll be a bunch of ineffective sanctions that the leaders will tell us are the strongest possible sanctions, maybe even a strongly worded speech from Liz Truss, and Putin will just carry on doing what he wants and from his speech yesterday it sounds like he wants all of Ukraine.
 

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,072
Marty said:
Having weak leaders in the west allows this kinda stuff to happen.
Click to expand...
Like our government receiving large donations from Putin allied Russians, our government giving Putin allied Russians life peerages in the House of Lords, like our governments allowing London to be a laundry for dirty/stolen Russian money for decades etc etc.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,073
PVA said:
Probably. No one wants a war with Russia so it'll be a bunch of ineffective sanctions that the leaders will tell us are the strongest possible sanctions, maybe even a strongly worded speech from Liz Truss, and Putin will just carry on doing what he wants and from his speech yesterday it sounds like he wants all of Ukraine.
Click to expand...

I can believe it’ll be a drawn out and bloody conflict, but if ultimately he’s determined to take all of it and knows there will be no military intervention, what would stop him?
 

Liquid Gold

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,074
Brighton Sky Blue said:
I can believe it’ll be a drawn out and bloody conflict, but if ultimately he’s determined to take all of it and knows there will be no military intervention, what would stop him?
Click to expand...
Would end up like their Vietnam/another Afghan. The Ukrainians are determined to resist and we will supply them without forethought of where those weapons are going to.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,075
Liquid Gold said:
Would end up like their Vietnam/another Afghan. The Ukrainians are determined to resist and we will supply them without forethought of where those weapons are going to.
Click to expand...

They are, but Crimea and the eastern regions are either already gone or would quickly switch sides and Putin can also easily attack from Belarus.

Unlike Nixon and LBJ he would have the backing of the public for this as well
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,076
Evo1883 said:
Exactly so what does putin have to fear from western nuclear power ? Nothing is the answer

It's not even a realistic option
Click to expand...

He has MAD to fear the simple fact that any nuclear strike would be met by a massive counterstrike which would end up with both sides being destroyed, Mutually assured destructions is the basic understanding that has kept humanity from blowing itself off the face of the planet
 
Reactions: Ian1779

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,077
Brighton Sky Blue said:
They are, but Crimea and the eastern regions are either already gone or would quickly switch sides and Putin can also easily attack from Belarus.

Unlike Nixon and LBJ he would have the backing of the public for this as well
Click to expand...

Russian supporting factions only control a bit of even the regions say say they do.
 

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,078
Boris to announce sanctions latter. One early leak suggesting that he’s cancelled tomorrow’s tennis match with the wife of Putins former finance minister for Putin.
 
Reactions: duffer and AOM

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,079
In other news it looks like Germany is suspending Nord Stream 2.
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,080
NS2 is dead
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,081
skybluetony176 said:
In other news it looks like Germany is suspending Nord Stream 2.
Click to expand...

Seems that people didn't think that would happen
 

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,082
Made me smile

 
Reactions: Tommo1993, AOM, Ian1779 and 3 others

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,083
Marty said:
Having weak leaders in the west allows this kinda stuff to happen.
Click to expand...

The reality is that the world major powers so integrated economically that there is really only so far anyone is willing to go.
 
Reactions: Sky_Blue_Dreamer

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,084
David O'Day said:
Seems that people didn't think that would happen
Click to expand...
It certainly throws down the gauntlet to other nations.
 

Earlsdon_Skyblue1

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,085
Liquid Gold said:
Make sure he only takes them to the next safe country and not where he has built a life for them already.
Click to expand...

What is that supposed to mean?
 
S

SBT

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,086
Brighton Sky Blue said:
It happened throughout most of the Cold War despite a good number of ‘strong’ Western leaders. Though here the US is led by a senile fool, Britain is led by a clown impersonator, France by a man with ‘little man’ syndrome and Germany’s hands have been tied since 1945.

China may well be kingmaker
Click to expand...

I can only imagine what Trump's response would have been to all this!

Which presidential candidate would you rather be running the US strategy here?
 
Reactions: PVA and Sky_Blue_Dreamer

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,087
SBT said:
I can only imagine what Trump's response would have been to all this!

Which presidential candidate would you rather be running the US strategy here?
Click to expand...

BSB chats whiff about Biden as he beat Sanders

Trump would be waving the green flag for Russia
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,088
UEFA showing some balls as well
 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,089
skybluetony176 said:
In other news it looks like Germany is suspending Nord Stream 2.
Click to expand...

This is massive
 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,090
David O'Day said:
NS2 is dead
Click to expand...

I wouldn’t go quite that far. More parked. Important move though
 
Reactions: PVA

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,091
CCFCSteve said:
I wouldn’t go quite that far. More parked. Important move though
Click to expand...

Ok dead for now and kicked well and truly into the long grass unless Russia changes tack

Yes it is really massive and even the Germans didn't believe their new government would have balls to do it
 
Reactions: CCFCSteve

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,092
Boris is leaking a good game let's hope he has the balls to go through with it


UK ministers say sanctions could target companies and individuals linked to the Russian government
Boris Johnson also says the UK could limit Russian firms' ability to raise capital on London's markets
He has suggested Western allies are looking at stopping Russian companies trading in pounds and dollars
Other measures Western nations could impose include restricting exports to Russia, or excluding it from the Swift financial messaging service.
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,093
David O'Day said:
He has MAD to fear the simple fact that any nuclear strike would be met by a massive counterstrike which would end up with both sides being destroyed, Mutually assured destructions is the basic understanding that has kept humanity from blowing itself off the face of the planet
Click to expand...
I agree with your point about MAD, but it's looking forward to the endgame.

if we don't do something to stop him now, he'll just get more and more emboldened and push further and further until we do. We've already mentioned that the west has a much better army than Russia, so he can't win that way. At which point his only option would be to ask for help from other nations. Who would support him? China would want to stay out of it and if push came to shove would be just as likely to side against him.

So then what? He faces certain defeat and he knows it's all over. Is he just going to hole himself into a bunker and shoot himself in the head? Maybe. But I think he's just as likely to mchine gun everyone in the room, press the red button then shoot himself in the head. If he can't have it no-one can. I genuinely think he's that crazy.
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,094
David O'Day said:
Boris is leaking a good game let's hope he has the balls to go through with it


UK ministers say sanctions could target companies and individuals linked to the Russian government
Boris Johnson also says the UK could limit Russian firms' ability to raise capital on London's markets
He has suggested Western allies are looking at stopping Russian companies trading in pounds and dollars
Other measures Western nations could impose include restricting exports to Russia, or excluding it from the Swift financial messaging service.
Click to expand...
I agree it's about what they ACTUALLY do in the end.

A lot of 'could's' in that statement
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 22, 2022
  • #11,095
SBT said:
I can only imagine what Trump's response would have been to all this!

Which presidential candidate would you rather be running the US strategy here?
Click to expand...

I don't think my preferred candidate is a secret on here
 
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