Johnson's demise was 100% self-inflicted.
His popularity was at an all time high during the early days of COVID.
He threw it all away with poor decision making and then of course breaking his own rules ('no one cares about parties' lol).
Johnson can at least look at his premiership and argue that COVID derailed his Government’s agenda. Starmer is throwing away a huge majority with no real external crisis, everything has been self-inflicted.
Agree on that point, but the government of the day had no control over the Ukraine war or COVID. The Tories being kicked out of office followed a broad trend that government parties were being kicked out off office at the next election.Johnson's demise was 100% self-inflicted.
His popularity was at an all time high during the early days of COVID.
He threw it all away with poor decision making and then of course breaking his own rules ('no one cares about parties' lol).
It's unlikely that Labour doesn't remain in power until 2029 given the majority it hasAgree on that point, but the government of the day had no control over the Ukraine war or COVID. The Tories being kicked out of office followed a broad trend that government parties were being kicked out off office at the next election.
Starmer came into office with a huge majority, no new external crises and government looks as tired haggered as the last one. The Tory’s psychodrama played out over a good 7-8 years.
Starmer is finished and without knowing how, Labour doesn’t stay in power til 2029.
They’re in office, but the government is hardly in power.It's unlikely that Labour doesn't remain in power until 2029 given the majority it has
What is more likely is a leadership challenge, which by the looks of it could see the loathsome Wes Streeting in against a parachuted Andy Burnham.They’re in office, but the government is hardly in power.
Take the Tories under May, couldn’t get her Brexit Deal through and was ousted. Boris comes in to change course and eventually put his deal to the electorate.
One of the inherent issues this government has is that its mandate is unclear (in terms of policy platform) so MPs will rebel on any issues they don’t agree with. It’s hugely destabilising.
It’ll come to blows and whoever replaces Starmer will struggle to govern, a 2027 election is not implausible if this budget goes badly.
Andy Burnham isn’t guaranteed to win a seat even if he does get a by-election.What is more likely is a leadership challenge, which by the looks of it could see the loathsome Wes Streeting in against a parachuted Andy Burnham.
Burnham won't leave his current job unless he thinks a win is guaranteed, but it will need to be in a constituency where Reform won't get a look-in and where he can fight off the Greens. I don't think many if any such places exist at this exact moment.Andy Burnham isn’t guaranteed to win a seat even if he does get a by-election.
I’d keep an eye on Shabana Mahmood. Knowing Labour members, they’ll pick the most left wing candidate and it’ll go badly.
Clive Lewis’ seat is such a seat, but Zia Yusef was goading Burnham into running saying Labour’s majority is smaller there than in Runcorn.Burnham won't leave his current job unless he thinks a win is guaranteed, but it will need to be in a constituency where Reform won't get a look-in and where he can fight off the Greens. I don't think many if any such places exist at this exact moment.
I will say though, the party could do worse than someone with a decent record of running a big city. The problem is I can't get out of my mind the 2015 Labour leadership election where he openly complained about being asked for his opinion as 'a trap'.
I really doubt Reform would do much in a seat like that. I expect if Burnham ran on an anti-Starmer ticket, he'd win comfortably, but I think the Greens would invest a fair bit of resources into the contest.Clive Lewis’ seat is such a seat, but Zia Yusef was goading Burnham into running saying Labour’s majority is smaller there than in Runcorn.
Public posturing or do Refom have internal polling to suggest they’d run him close?
Probably the former, Lab-Green-LD polled at 73.8% in 2024. Tories/Brexit/UKIP have got past 35% between them since 1992.
Zero chance. Labour have never had a female leader let alone a BAME leader. You under-estimate the amount of racism I think particularly in the North and why the red-wall for Brexit got behind Boris. The Unions are also very powerful in choosing their leader.Andy Burnham isn’t guaranteed to win a seat even if he does get a by-election.
I’d keep an eye on Shabana Mahmood. Knowing Labour members, they’ll pick the most left wing candidate and it’ll go badly.
I don’t think so either and it’s a seat the Greens have done well in since 2010. Which is an interesting thought because if Clive Lewis steps down for Burnham, there’s probably a good chance the Greens win the seat which would be a humiliation for Burnham.I really doubt Reform would do much in a seat like that. I expect if Burnham ran on an anti-Starmer ticket, he'd win comfortably, but I think the Greens would invest a fair bit of resources into the contest.
Regardless of what he does, I don't see an election before it's due. I do see Starmer getting toppled before then, but if it's Wes Streeting who replaces him frankly what's the point?
He’s a man from yesteryear, his chance was in 2015 and his politics (as well as Starmer and Streeting) has moved on from the Blair/Brownism.Zero chance. Labour have never had a female leader let alone a BAME leader. You under-estimate the amount of racism I think particularly in the North and why the red-wall for Brexit got behind Boris. The Unions are also very powerful in choosing their leader.
Burnham would be an absolute shoo-in for leader imo if he did get a seat and tbh whether you like him or not, he'd 100% enjoy a honeymoon period and I'm pretty confident he is the best chance of preventing Reform from winning the next election as things currently stand.
The Johnson government had a very comfortable majority but was brought down less by the economy and more just being mired in sleaze and scandal. Frankly, an election really should have been called soon after Sunak took over as having 3 PMs in one calendrical year is an utter farce. But they held out until around half a year before an election was due.I don’t think so either and it’s a seat the Greens have done well in since 2010. Which is an interesting thought because if Clive Lewis steps down for Burnham, there’s probably a good chance the Greens win the seat which would be a humiliation for Burnham.
Political circumstances change, we should only had 2 elections since Cameron in 2015 (2020, 2025). Yet we’ve had 3 and the size of the majority don’t matter if you can’t legislate.
If Labour are in a position where public spending cuts are necessary, they won’t be able to govern and an election becomes inevitable.
Totally disagree and I would disagree if Labour have a new leader too. You vote for a party not a person, if they change leader they still get their full term and can use their advantage to call one early if they think it's beneficial to do so.Frankly, an election really should have been called soon after Sunak took over as having 3 PMs in one calendrical year is an utter farce. But they held out until around half a year before an election was due.
There will be a leadership challenge that I am fairly certain Starmer will lose, then whoever takes over is going to max out their time in office. A blue dog politician like Mahmood is simply not going to win over the membership, whereas Burnham could be a good compromise candidate for both them and the electorate.
Politically, that might not be possible. A large majority is only useful if the backbenchers back the government and as of right now, it’s clear the government is constantly tip toeing over the prospect of a rebellion.The Johnson government had a very comfortable majority but was brought down less by the economy and more just being mired in sleaze and scandal. Frankly, an election really should have been called soon after Sunak took over as having 3 PMs in one calendrical year is an utter farce. But they held out until around half a year before an election was due.
There will be a leadership challenge that I am fairly certain Starmer will lose, then whoever takes over is going to max out their time in office. A blue dog politician like Mahmood is simply not going to win over the membership, whereas Burnham could be a good compromise candidate for both them and the electorate.
More specifically, you vote for a manifesto. The reason the tories could withstand Truss and Sunak as PMs without an election was that they claimed to continue the 201 9 manifesto.Totally disagree and I would disagree if Labour have a new leader too. You vote for a party not a person, if they change leader they still get their full term and can use their advantage to call one early if they think it's beneficial to do so.
I'm not normally one for wanting general elections just because the PM has changed, but Liz Truss was in charge for a month before being replaced which led to 3 people holding the position in as many months. It's a sign of instability in government that crosses the line for what I think the electorate should tolerate.Totally disagree and I would disagree if Labour have a new leader too. You vote for a party not a person, if they change leader they still get their full term and can use their advantage to call one early if they think it's beneficial to do so.
I knew as soon as I pressed post, that would be the reply, but guess you know what I meant as in not voting for a leader.I'm not normally one for wanting general elections just because the PM has changed, but Liz Truss was in charge for a month before being replaced which led to 3 people holding the position in as many months. It's a sign of instability in government that crosses the line for what I think the electorate should tolerate.
Strictly speaking by the way you vote for your MP, which is why when they change parties there's no immediate by-election.
No sure, I just feel in that particular extreme case an immediate election was warranted. If you had an analogous scenario with this current government (which wouldn't surprise me at all) I'd feel the same way. The country suffers too much from constant changes of leadership.I knew as soon as I pressed post, that would be the reply, but guess you know what I meant as in not voting for a leader.
How you can talk about Truss claiming to continue the 2019 manifesto when she clearly just changed everything in one fell swoop trying to cosplay Thatcher.More specifically, you vote for a manifesto. The reason the tories could withstand Truss and Sunak as PMs without an election was that they claimed to continue the 201 9 manifesto.
Being cynical, Labour’s manifesto is so vague that any leader could probably argue they’re maintaining sticking to the 2024 manifesto.
This is clearly partisan.How you can talk about Truss claiming to continue the 2019 manifesto when she clearly just changed everything in one fell swoop trying to cosplay Thatcher.
As for the Labour manifesto being vague - do you actually remember the Tory 2019 one under Boris? It had nothing in it except for "Get Brexit Done". No policy, no firm plans or routemaps. Every time a question came up it was just "Get Brexit Done". Labour's was a comprehensive, well-argued, cross-referenced dissertation in comparison (and for avoidance of doubt I do think it was, quite deliberately, very vague).
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