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Do you want to discuss boring politics? (30 Viewers)

  • Thread starter mrtrench
  • Start date Jun 14, 2020
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C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 7, 2025
  • #48,651
fernandopartridge said:
You're essentially saying that the household gains from lower interest rates will be offset by the 'soft labour market'. Great.
Click to expand...

Yep. Sorry. BoE appear to be concerned about a potential slowing of the economy and a softening of the labour market hence willingness to cut. Just hope we don’t get a double whammy of inflation moving/staying higher than hoped and a weakening economy !

One positive is that BoEs forecasts have changed regularly and by quite lot over the past couple of years so who knows
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 7, 2025
  • #48,652

Chris Giles (@chrisgiles.ft.com)

If I told you that the Bank of England upgraded its growth forecasts yesterday, would you believe me? It did.... i HAvE nOt gOne CRazY - honest This is a hill I am prepared to die on - the BoE and others (all central banks, IMF, OECD etc etc) report their "forecasts" in a terrible way 🧵
bsky.app

Beyond me TBH
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 7, 2025
  • #48,653
shmmeee said:

Chris Giles (@chrisgiles.ft.com)

If I told you that the Bank of England upgraded its growth forecasts yesterday, would you believe me? It did.... i HAvE nOt gOne CRazY - honest This is a hill I am prepared to die on - the BoE and others (all central banks, IMF, OECD etc etc) report their "forecasts" in a terrible way 🧵
bsky.app

Beyond me TBH
Click to expand...

It's all a bit weird, as I said earlier the sequencing of events is falling apart and it feels like they're trying to maintain the illusion that monetary policy is controlling inflation.

Underlying it all imo is that the UK needs to get control of its energy supply, the current market provision is far too volatile.
 
Reactions: SBAndy
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 7, 2025
  • #48,654
shmmeee said:

Chris Giles (@chrisgiles.ft.com)

If I told you that the Bank of England upgraded its growth forecasts yesterday, would you believe me? It did.... i HAvE nOt gOne CRazY - honest This is a hill I am prepared to die on - the BoE and others (all central banks, IMF, OECD etc etc) report their "forecasts" in a terrible way 🧵
bsky.app

Beyond me TBH
Click to expand...

I might be wrong but think he’s saying BoE believe we’re weaker now/going to be weaker in the shorter term but maybe a bit stronger in the medium term. As I mentioned before, not sure Id hang my hat on the BoE forecasts though, there’s so many variables outside their and even UK governments control
 
W

wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 7, 2025
  • #48,655
shmmeee said:

Chris Giles (@chrisgiles.ft.com)

If I told you that the Bank of England upgraded its growth forecasts yesterday, would you believe me? It did.... i HAvE nOt gOne CRazY - honest This is a hill I am prepared to die on - the BoE and others (all central banks, IMF, OECD etc etc) report their "forecasts" in a terrible way 🧵
bsky.app

Beyond me TBH
Click to expand...
Yet the BOE have been out of step with all other central banks??
 
Reactions: dutchman

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 7, 2025
  • #48,656
shmmeee said:

Chris Giles (@chrisgiles.ft.com)

If I told you that the Bank of England upgraded its growth forecasts yesterday, would you believe me? It did.... i HAvE nOt gOne CRazY - honest This is a hill I am prepared to die on - the BoE and others (all central banks, IMF, OECD etc etc) report their "forecasts" in a terrible way 🧵
bsky.app

Beyond me TBH
Click to expand...
I thought you didn’t agree with people getting their headlines from X / Twitter
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 7, 2025
  • #48,657
A labour council planning to block redevelopment of a brown field site for housing. Dear oh dear, what will Keir, Angie and Rachel do about that.

Let assume nothing and permit development of the green belt and then throw the book at boomer nimbys protests and legal actions.

Coventry factory closes for good as firm returns to Sweden

The city council is considering a move to help redevelop the site
www.coventrytelegraph.net
 
Last edited: Feb 9, 2025

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 7, 2025
  • #48,658
MalcSB said:
I thought you didn’t agree with people getting their headlines from X / Twitter
Click to expand...

I think the FT’s economics editor on economic stats is fair enough and I posted it mostly to hear what others said. It’s a bit technical for me.
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 8, 2025
  • #48,659
shmmeee said:
I think the FT’s economics editor on economic stats is fair enough and I posted it mostly to hear what others said. It’s a bit technical for me.
Click to expand...
On the face of it a good rationale, although you have previously included the FT in a list of publications that you criticised me for using as source material.

My takeaway if that any source is fine as long as the content is in some way supportive of this Labour government.
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 8, 2025
  • #48,660
MalcSB said:
On the face of it a good rationale, although you have previously included the FT in a list of publications that you criticised me for using as source material.

My takeaway if that any source is fine as long as the content is in some way supportive of this Labour government.
Click to expand...
Which one is that
 
W

wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 8, 2025
  • #48,661
Think I saw something yesterday where the Telegraph was being critical of the BOE, could have just been the headline though?
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 8, 2025
  • #48,662
shmmeee said:
I think the FT’s economics editor on economic stats is fair enough and I posted it mostly to hear what others said. It’s a bit technical for me.
Click to expand...
Im probably wrong but I think what he is saying is that they had calculated total GDP based in adding growth of X on to a start point of N, to give NX as the GDP estimate. Unfortunately N was incorrect ( worrying as all sorts of decisions will have been made based on N). The BoE best guess at what the real value ascribed to N is actually H, so the new estimate for total GDP is HX which is half of NX.

If I was a Labour spin doctor, I would probably argue that this is good news. As growth X has stayed the same whilst H is considerably less than N, the percentage increase in GDP will be higher. I think!
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete and wingy

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 8, 2025
  • #48,663
MalcSB said:
Im probably wrong but I think what he is saying is that they had calculated total GDP based in adding growth of X on to a start point of N, to give NX as the GDP estimate. Unfortunately N was incorrect ( worrying as all sorts of decisions will have been made based on N). The BoE best guess at what the real value ascribed to N is actually H, so the new estimate for total GDP is HX which is half of NX.

If I was a Labour spin doctor, I would probably argue that this is good news. As growth X has stayed the same whilst H is considerably less than N, the percentage increase in GDP will be higher. I think!
Click to expand...

Wouldn’t this be last years growth that’s wrong then? Not this years? Or is N the total economy and wa always wrong?

I dunno seems silly to run things on projections and guesses generally but this is where I get a bit FP economically.
 
Reactions: wingy

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 8, 2025
  • #48,664
wingy said:
Think I saw something yesterday where the Telegraph was being critical of the BOE, could have just been the headline though?
Click to expand...
The BoE isn’t your favourite organisation iirc.

I thought the juxtaposition of these two online articles was amising, published 1 hour apart.

The Bank of England is cutting rates to help Labour

Threadneedle Street appears to be saving Reeves’s blushes over doing what’s best for the economy
www.telegraph.co.uk


The Bank of England isn’t coming to save Rachel Reeves – no one is

There is no silver bullet for the economy, and no rate cut can undo the damage of the Budget
www.telegraph.co.uk
 
Reactions: wingy

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 8, 2025
  • #48,665
Presumably people struggling to buy a house are pleased with the reduction in interest rates from “Sky high levels (lol)”.
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 8, 2025
  • #48,666
House prices are supposedly increasing at a fair rate of knots as purchasers try to complete before Reeves decision not to extend the lower rates comes in to force.

As ever, heads they win, tails you lose.
 
Last edited: Feb 8, 2025

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 8, 2025
  • #48,667
Why does he continually court these people? They won't believe you. They have got their minds set.


Concentrate on delivering something positive for people, not just this outright spite fest
 
P

PVA

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 8, 2025
  • #48,668
fernandopartridge said:
Why does he continually court these people? They won't believe you. They have got their minds set.

Concentrate on delivering something positive for people, not just this outright spite fest
Click to expand...

I agree with your first point, that people have their minds made up already.

But on the second point, removing people who have no right to be here is not spiteful - surely that's what everyone wants to see? (obviously I'm not talking about genuine asylum seekers, but the criminals etc).
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 8, 2025
  • #48,669
PVA said:
I agree with your first point, that people have their minds made up already.

But on the second point, removing people who have no right to be here is not spiteful - surely that's what everyone wants to see? (obviously I'm not talking about genuine asylum seekers, but the criminals etc).
Click to expand...

The politics behind it is playing up to spite.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 
Reactions: duffer

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 9, 2025
  • #48,670
fernandopartridge said:
Why does he continually court these people? They won't believe you. They have got their minds set.


Concentrate on delivering something positive for people, not just this outright spite fest
Click to expand...

Immigration is second only to the economy on voter concerns. With 44%, just above the NHS.
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 9, 2025
  • #48,671
Change

Cash-strapped schools plan to lay off teachers in blow to Labour’s promise
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 9, 2025
  • #48,672
What a lovely chap.

Health minister Andrew Gwynne sacked over offensive WhatsApp comments

MP also suspended from Labour party after exposure of messages in which he said he hoped for pensioner’s death
www.theguardian.com
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 9, 2025
  • #48,673
I find it hard to believe Angela became angry and aggressive

Angela Rayner 'escorted out of Grenfell meeting' amid shock and anger at demolition

Families of victims have criticised Government decision - but feelings about the move in the wider community are more mixed
www.standard.co.uk
 
Reactions: dutchman
P

PVA

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 9, 2025
  • #48,674
Grendel said:
What a lovely chap.

Health minister Andrew Gwynne sacked over offensive WhatsApp comments

MP also suspended from Labour party after exposure of messages in which he said he hoped for pensioner’s death
www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...

Imagine that, sacking a disgraced minister rather than spending days or weeks defending him only to then sack him after debasing yourself in front of the nation.
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 9, 2025
  • #48,675
fernandopartridge said:
The politics behind it is playing up to spite.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Isn’t a lot of politics about that.

And a lot of the rest about rewarding patronage.
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 9, 2025
  • #48,676
MalcSB said:
Isn’t a lot of politics about that.

And a lot of the rest about rewarding patronage.
Click to expand...
Don’t lose hope that many people want to serve for good reasons like you I suspect and I hope me too
We can live in a better world
 
Reactions: CCFCSteve

duffer

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 9, 2025
  • #48,677
Sky Blue Pete said:
Don’t lose hope that many people want to serve for good reasons like you I suspect and I hope me too
We can live in a better world
Click to expand...

Pete mate, you always see the best in people, and that is to your eternal credit.

I've got to say though, that from my perspective, the honest people who go into politics to do good, are generally overtaken by the lying, conniving shits who will do and say anything to get into power and then stay there. Hence many of the former turn into the latter.

This is most evident in the LINO (Labour-in-name-only) party currently in charge, but is of course also true of almost anyone who has had a whiff of power over the last few decades. If you're looking for people trying to change the world for the better, rather than for themselves, politics probably isn't the right place to be.

(LINO is a good name for this shower, imho. Cheap, plastic, bends when gentle pressure applied, and usually gets replaced after a few years.)
 
Reactions: Sky_Blue_Dreamer and MalcSB

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 9, 2025
  • #48,678
shmmeee said:
Immigration is second only to the economy on voter concerns. With 44%, just above the NHS.
Click to expand...
I believe it is really a concern because a lot of people blame the poor state of the economy and public services on it

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 
Reactions: Brighton Sky Blue

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 9, 2025
  • #48,679
duffer said:
Pete mate, you always see the best in people, and that is to your eternal credit.

I've got to say though, that from my perspective, the honest people who go into politics to do good, are generally overtaken by the lying, conniving shits who will do and say anything to get into power and then stay there. Hence many of the former turn into the latter.

This is most evident in the LINO (Labour-in-name-only) party currently in charge, but is of course also true of almost anyone who has had a whiff of power over the last few decades. If you're looking for people trying to change the world for the better, rather than for themselves, politics probably isn't the right place to be.

(LINO is a good name for this shower, imho. Cheap, plastic, bends when gentle pressure applied, and usually gets replaced after a few years.)
Click to expand...
Power corrupts and ultimate power corrupts ultimately
 
Reactions: duffer

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 9, 2025
  • #48,680
fernandopartridge said:
I believe it is really a concern because a lot of people blame the poor state of the economy and public services on it

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I think most people just think there’s been too much immigration especially illegal immigration. I’m not seeing any violent protests about the state of public services or people shouting out that cuts to local government are why city are losing even if we wished that to be the case.
 
Reactions: CCFCSteve

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 9, 2025
  • #48,681
shmmeee said:
I think most people just think there’s been too much immigration especially illegal immigration. I’m not seeing any violent protests about the state of public services or people shouting out that cuts to local government are why city are losing even if we wished that to be the case.
Click to expand...
It’s a tiny figure compared to legal though isn’t it
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 9, 2025
  • #48,682
PVA said:
Imagine that, sacking a disgraced minister rather than spending days or weeks defending him only to then sack him after debasing yourself in front of the nation.
Click to expand...
Missed the point entirel.

Its not about swift action being taking, it’s about the disgraceful behaviour that precipitated it.
 
P

PVA

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 9, 2025
  • #48,683
MalcSB said:
Missed the point entirel.

Its not about swift action being taking, it’s about the disgraceful behaviour that precipitated it.
Click to expand...

I didn't miss the point at all.

Obviously the guy is a c**t and deserved to be sacked.

You seem to have missed my point though.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 9, 2025
  • #48,684
Sky Blue Pete said:
It’s a tiny figure compared to legal though isn’t it
Click to expand...

I think the boats are symbolic tbh and why Sunaks focus on boats while opening the flood gates to legal immigration backfired. Rightly or wrongly a big chunk of the UK population just wants less immigration right now.
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 10, 2025
  • #48,685
Sky Blue Pete said:
It’s a tiny figure compared to legal though isn’t it
Click to expand...
It may be a tiny figure, but it has sensitised people against the larger number.
 
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