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Do you want to discuss boring politics? (29 Viewers)

  • Thread starter mrtrench
  • Start date Jun 14, 2020
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shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 17, 2025
  • #48,091
fernandopartridge said:
Good. I'm sure you agree then that any prospective cuts to the welfare bill are unnecessary.
Click to expand...

That’s nothing to do with the gilt market.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 17, 2025
  • #48,092
MalcSB said:
Hmm. A whole 2 weeks sample size.
Click to expand...

Two weeks where people who repeat whatever the Mail front page says have been on about how terrible it’s been. I’ve posted a 14 year sample earlier in the thread and you didn’t like that either surprisingly.
 
Reactions: Grendel

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 17, 2025
  • #48,093
shmmeee said:
That’s nothing to do with the gilt market.
Click to expand...
The cost of "borrowing" is and the ground is being primed for more cuts in order to meet the fiscal rules.

Keir Starmer says Treasury will be ruthless on public spending cuts

Chancellor’s tough approach to public spending ‘absolutely right’, says PM after cost of government borrowing rose
www.theguardian.com
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 17, 2025
  • #48,094
From FaceBook. Is this plea each or between them.

 

Mcbean

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2025
  • #48,095
Has Starmer or Reeves gone yet ?
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2025
  • #48,096
Mcbean said:
Has Starmer or Reeves gone yet ?
Click to expand...
Yep both resigned and Farage is now prime minister with Lowe as chancellor
We are about to declare war on Poland
 
Reactions: shmmeee and CovValleyBoy

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2025
  • #48,097
fernandopartridge said:
The cost of "borrowing" is and the ground is being primed for more cuts in order to meet the fiscal rules.

Keir Starmer says Treasury will be ruthless on public spending cuts

Chancellor’s tough approach to public spending ‘absolutely right’, says PM after cost of government borrowing rose
www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...
Will Starmer’s votes of confidence turn out to be kisses of death like those of football club’s chairman I wonder.

I genuinely hope so.
 
Last edited: Jan 18, 2025

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2025
  • #48,098
shmmeee said:
Two weeks where people who repeat whatever the Mail front page says have been on about how terrible it’s been. I’ve posted a 14 year sample earlier in the thread and you didn’t like that either surprisingly.
Click to expand...
I’m not sure I totally understood it tbh.

I think my initial thought was that somehow the economic position at the time needed to be taken into to account when considering the relative movements at that time. That position seemed worse for Truss than it did/ does for Reeves - so an apparently smaller worsening for the latter may actually be a bigger issue than seen at first sight.

The economic position during Truss’s time would have been down to the Tories - as would it for Reeves time despite Starmer talking the economy down. Which statement will probably have you apoplectic
 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2025
  • #48,099
shmmeee said:
That’s nothing to do with the gilt market.
Click to expand...

It does to an extent. The markets want to see control over spending ie government is likely to be able to repay the debt and they will be getting back a good return

Obviously we always will always repay as we can just print more, however, that can cause inflation/debase the currency which means that people want higher yields to lend the government money (as that £ lent today will be worth less in 2, 5 or 10 years due to inflation/debasing)…..and so the spiral continues.

That’s why this week the yields dropped, not because of any government policy in here and the U.S, but because of the better than expected inflation figures. Both were coming down from high levels though

Also our yields apparently follow US more closely as both rely on a high amount of external/foreign investors so at the moment lenders want good yields from
us otherwise they’d rather lend to US which has far better growth/growth prospects - think that’s right anyway.
 
Reactions: MalcSB and Captain Dart
S

SBT

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2025
  • #48,100
MalcSB said:
From FaceBook. Is this plea each or between them.
Click to expand...
I’m not sure I get the joke Malcolm
 
P

PVA

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2025
  • #48,101
SBT said:
I’m not sure I get the joke Malcolm
Click to expand...

It's funny because a little bit of water means we deserve as much aid as those facing famine and war.

 
Reactions: MalcSB and Sky Blue Pete

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2025
  • #48,102
CCFCSteve said:
It does to an extent. The markets want to see control over spending ie government is likely to be able to repay the debt and they will be getting back a good return

Obviously we always will always repay as we can just print more, however, that can cause inflation/debase the currency which means that people want higher yields to lend the government money (as that £ lent today will be worth less in 2, 5 or 10 years due to inflation/debasing)…..and so the spiral continues.

That’s why this week the yields dropped, not because of any government policy in here and the U.S, but because of the better than expected inflation figures. Both were coming down from high levels though

Also our yields apparently follow US more closely as both rely on a high amount of external/foreign investors so at the moment lenders want good yields from
us otherwise they’d rather lend to US which has far better growth/growth prospects - think that’s right anyway.
Click to expand...

No it’s nothing to do with the gilt market because it was already accounted for in plans as it was implemented by the Tories. To cancel it now would mean the money would have to be found elsewhere (MMT arguments aside FP)
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2025
  • #48,103
MalcSB said:
I’m not sure I totally understood it tbh.

I think my initial thought was that somehow the economic position at the time needed to be taken into to account when considering the relative movements at that time. That position seemed worse for Truss than it did/ does for Reeves - so an apparently smaller worsening for the latter may actually be a bigger issue than seen at first sight.

The economic position during Truss’s time would have been down to the Tories - as would it for Reeves time despite Starmer talking the economy down. Which statement will probably have you apoplectic
Click to expand...

Gilts and GBP have been more stable under Reeves so far than any chancellor of the last 14 years. Thats what that graph shows.
 
Reactions: Captain Dart

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2025
  • #48,104
fernandopartridge said:
The cost of "borrowing" is and the ground is being primed for more cuts in order to meet the fiscal rules.

Keir Starmer says Treasury will be ruthless on public spending cuts

Chancellor’s tough approach to public spending ‘absolutely right’, says PM after cost of government borrowing rose
www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...

You’re mixing up stories here. Firstly the Treasury always asks for ruthless cuts, it’s the treasury. That’s its job.

Secondly as I said to Steve this story has nothing to do with the current finances. It was always accounted for as it was planned under the Tories.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2025
  • #48,105
shmmeee said:
Gilts and GBP have been more stable under Reeves so far than any chancellor of the last 14 years. Thats what that graph shows.
Click to expand...

Right

Pound slides to fresh 14-month low as stocks fall; rise in UK borrowing costs reverses – as it happened

Dollar jumps to over two-year high against major currencies as bets on US rate cuts recede; UK 30-year government bond yield eases after hitting fresh 27-year high
www.theguardian.com
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2025
  • #48,106
Sky Blue Pete said:
Yep both resigned and Farage is now prime minister with Lowe as chancellor
We are about to declare war on Poland
Click to expand...

Could you imagine a Reform govt?

They can’t even get two competent MPs together.
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2025
  • #48,107
shmmeee said:
You’re mixing up stories here. Firstly the Treasury always asks for ruthless cuts, it’s the treasury. That’s its job.

Secondly as I said to Steve this story has nothing to do with the current finances. It was always accounted for as it was planned under the Tories.
Click to expand...
No it hasn't, I worked in the civil service for 7 years
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2025
  • #48,108
fernandopartridge said:
No it hasn't, I worked in the civil service for 7 years
Click to expand...

And you think the treasury doesn’t always ask for as little money as possible to be spent? Feel free to show me some evidence of the treasury saying “hey guys don’t worry about departmental spend”

I notice you avoided the main point of my reply. I’ll assume that means you accept you were wrong.
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2025
  • #48,109
shmmeee said:
And you think the treasury doesn’t always ask for as little money as possible to be spent? Feel free to show me some evidence of the treasury saying “hey guys don’t worry about departmental spend”

I notice you avoided the main point of my reply. I’ll assume that means you accept you were wrong.
Click to expand...
Nobody has said that. The treasury expect you not to go asking for more money. It's only a austerity era thing that they come to try and take budget away.
 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2025
  • #48,110
shmmeee said:
No it’s nothing to do with the gilt market because it was already accounted for in plans as it was implemented by the Tories. To cancel it now would mean the money would have to be found elsewhere (MMT arguments aside FP)
Click to expand...

My point was that prospective cuts would’ve been related to what’s happening in the gilt market. I thought FP was talking about if more were required as reeves might potentially break her fiscal rules. Might be talking crossed purposes though
 

Mcbean

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2025
  • #48,111
Sky Blue Pete said:
Yep both resigned and Farage is now prime minister with Lowe as chancellor
We are about to declare war on Poland
Click to expand...
Ok it may be safe to return
 

fatso

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2025
  • #48,112
shmmeee said:
Could you imagine a Reform govt?

They can’t even get two competent MPs together.
Click to expand...
Neither can the Conservatives or Labour, just look at both front benches!
 

Captain Dart

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2025
  • #48,113
shmmeee said:
Could you imagine a Reform govt?

They can’t even get two competent MPs together.
Click to expand...
More than Labour though.
 
Reactions: CovValleyBoy and MalcSB

SkyBlueCharlie9

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 19, 2025
  • #48,114
MalcSB said:
Isn’t the leader of the opposition a brown person?
Click to expand...
Yes and why she will probably never be C&U Tory prime minister, as many old skool racist Torys will struggle to vote for her (probably a few on here too if they were honest)
Which is why Reform could genuinely push Labour and be 2nd party at next election.
Will C&U ever invite Farage to be their leader? Would be no stopping them then.
 
P

PVA

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 19, 2025
  • #48,115
Tricky one for Malc this!

The Home Office said on Thursday it had returned more than 16,400 “immigration offenders and foreign criminals” since the election in July, the highest six-month total since 2018.

The department said in a statement that enforced returns were up 24% compared with the previous 12 months. Since July, 2,580 of those removed had been convicted criminals from overseas – a 23% increase on last year, it said.
Click to expand...
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 19, 2025
  • #48,116
SkyBlueCharlie9 said:
Yes and why she will probably never be C&U Tory prime minister, as many old skool racist Torys will struggle to vote for her (probably a few on here too if they were honest)
Which is why Reform could genuinely push Labour and be 2nd party at next election.
Will C&U ever invite Farage to be their leader? Would be no stopping them then.
Click to expand...

Why do you insist on the full Conservative and Unionist party Charles?
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 19, 2025
  • #48,117
SBT said:
I’m not sure I get the joke Malcolm
Click to expand...
May be it isn’t a joke?

Famine and flood are both natural disasters.

The text overlaying the picture is not clear in its meaning.

Perhaps if we didn’t send so much foreign aid overseas to countries with space and / or nuclear weapons programmes we would have the wherewithal to prevent or protect communities in the UK from the devastating effects of flooding (NB those who dismiss it as just a bit of water)

Whenever there is an overseas disaster, we‘re immediately bombarded with such appeals. Collectivism is such a one way street.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 19, 2025
  • #48,118
SBT said:
I’m not sure I get the joke Malcolm
Click to expand...

I think you probably get its point even if you don’t agree with it
 
Reactions: MalcSB
S

SBT

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 19, 2025
  • #48,119
Grendel said:
I think you probably get its point even if you don’t agree with it
Click to expand...
I'm not sure I do - what is it that Afghanistan, Syria, India, Pakistan and every country in Africa have in common that I should be thinking about here?
 
S

SBT

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 19, 2025
  • #48,120
MalcSB said:
Perhaps if we didn’t send so much foreign aid overseas to countries with space and / or nuclear weapons programmes we would have the wherewithal to prevent or protect communities in the UK from the devastating effects of flooding
Click to expand...
Which African countries have space or nuclear weapons programs? Have Syria or Afghanistan started one up without me noticing? Just trying to figure out why you're lumping these countries together.
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 19, 2025
  • #48,121
PVA said:
SBT said:
I’m not sure I get the joke Malcolm
Click to expand...
It's funny because a little bit of water means we deserve as much aid as those facing famine and war.

Click to expand...
Go tell people whose houses have been devastated by floods and sewage and who have lost everything of sentimental value that it is only a little bit of water.
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 19, 2025
  • #48,122
SBT said:
Which African countries have space or nuclear weapons programs? Have Syria or Afghanistan started one up without me noticing? Just trying to figure out why you're lumping these countries together.
Click to expand...
India and Pakistan both have space programs which started in the 1960's and also nuclear weapons.

Syria has a space program which you didn't notice, announced in March 2014. Were you still in nappies?

Middle East Embraces Space Race

As nations in the region invest in satellite technology, a new era of space-based defense is emerging.
spaceproject.govexec.com

There was an article in the Times of Israel, which opened as follows (can't get link to copy and paste properly).

DAMASCUS — Syria’s government on Tuesday decided to establish a “space agency” to conduct scientific research despite the civil war that has torn the country apart and devastated its economy.

State news agency SANA said the cabinet had approved a project to create the so-called Syrian Space Agency, “with the goal of using space technology for exploration and observing the earth.”

SANA said the government hopes to employ such technology “in the service of development.”
 
Last edited: Jan 20, 2025

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 20, 2025
  • #48,123
SBT said:
I'm not sure I do - what is it that Afghanistan, Syria, India, Pakistan and every country in Africa have in common that I should be thinking about here?
Click to expand...

That as soon as there is any form of disaster in those countries / continents there are similar appeals to the people of the UK. The only offer of aid I recall was by Idi Amin of Uganda who, iirc, offered bananas to the UK and sent hardworking Ugandan Asians.

In addition they receive billions of pounds in Foreign Aid that could be beneficially spent in this country. On flood defences, dredging waterways etc. Pot holes even.
 
Last edited: Jan 20, 2025

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 20, 2025
  • #48,124
shmmeee said:
Gilts and GBP have been more stable under Reeves so far than any chancellor of the last 14 years. Thats what that graph shows.
Click to expand...
so you say, I would rather understand the graph myself than take your word as gospel. Sorry about that.
 
Last edited: Jan 20, 2025

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 20, 2025
  • #48,125
Captain Dart said:
More than Labour though.
Click to expand...
wouldn't one be more than Labour?
 
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