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Do you want to discuss boring politics? (19 Viewers)

  • Thread starter mrtrench
  • Start date Jun 14, 2020
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MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 19, 2024
  • #45,676
chiefdave said:
They could have whacked the 2p back on NI that the previous government put on. Shot themselves in the foot promising no tax increases but even then they could have, with ONS backing, used the 'black hole' as an excuse. Say it was totally uncosted and they have no choice.

Sure people would be mad but as has been said if it works out we're only in year one. It would be long forgotten as long as people feel better off when the next election comes around.
Click to expand...
Did you mean OBR, not ONS?
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 19, 2024
  • #45,677
CCFCSteve said:
Got things the wrong way round. Needed to focus on growth first, if successful then tax revenues rise anyway which may have mitigated some of the requirements to increase some taxes. Instead implemented tax rises first which are likely to suppress growth, especially employer NIC*

Also as has been said numerous times before, it was a massive error to try to talk down the economy following the election, which sucked all the post election momentum out of it. Shouldve just focussed on lack of public services investment etc under the Tories messaging and the requirement to fix this which will cost everyone unless we improve growth and productivity

*this was only required due to silly pre election promise not to increase main tax generators
Click to expand...
That would have been a very Tory way of going about things though.
 

Nick

Administrator
  • Nov 19, 2024
  • #45,678
chiefdave said:
They could have whacked the 2p back on NI that the previous government put on. Shot themselves in the foot promising no tax increases but even then they could have, with ONS backing, used the 'black hole' as an excuse. Say it was totally uncosted and they have no choice.

Sure people would be mad but as has been said if it works out we're only in year one. It would be long forgotten as long as people feel better off when the next election comes around.
Click to expand...
Tenner says Im not better off.
 

duffer

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 19, 2024
  • #45,679
MalcSB said:
That would have been a very Tory way of going about things though.
Click to expand...

And hence, would almost certainly not have worked.

If we want better services then we're going to need to pay for them.

And you're not going to get growth by sticking your thumb in the eye of our biggest and nearest trading partner based on a total fiction (oven ready deal, oh dear).

I don't want to redo the Brexit argument, but Labour's absolutism on Europe is madness, and a milquetoast, centrist approach to redistributive taxation isn't going to work either.

No one votes for the OBR or the Bank of England; we need a more imaginative and braver approach to economics and taxation than we're going to get from either the Tories or Labour, if we're going to dig our way out of this hole, imho.
 

duffer

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 19, 2024
  • #45,680
Nick said:
Tenner says Im not better off.
Click to expand...

You certainly won't be if you keep sticking a tenner on things that you can't be sure about.

It's a reasonable bet, that said...
 
Reactions: Nick

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 19, 2024
  • #45,681
Provide better services first and make people feel more willing to pay for them. You can't put taxes up today on the promise of better services tomorrow.
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 19, 2024
  • #45,682
No chance the press and twotterati won’t give the country a chance
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 19, 2024
  • #45,683
fernandopartridge said:
Provide better services first and make people feel more willing to pay for them. You can't put taxes up today on the promise of better services tomorrow.
Click to expand...
It appears they can,
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 20, 2024
  • #45,684

Bailey warns employer tax hikes may delay interest rate cuts

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warns that employer National Insurance hikes could delay future interest rate cuts, as businesses face rising costs and potential job losses.
bmmagazine.co.uk
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 20, 2024
  • #45,685
Let’s grow the economy

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/nov/18/budget-tax-rise-insol
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 20, 2024
  • #45,686

Winter Fuel Cut: Thousands more pensioners will be pushed into poverty

Government estimates suggest that limiting the payment will mean an estimated 50,000 more pensioners are in relative poverty after housing costs in 2025, and 100,000 more in 2026
www.standard.co.uk

Shouldnt impact assessments be done before implementation.
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 20, 2024
  • #45,687

UK inflation rises to 2.3%, increasing pressure to delay interest rate cut

Figure is above Bank of England target after energy bills push up prices
www.theguardian.com

We're going to get energy price inflation + inflation from businesses looking to recover the costs of increased NI contributions. Who'd have thought austerity politics causes inflation.
 
Reactions: Sick Boy, duffer and Nuskyblue

Nick

Administrator
  • Nov 20, 2024
  • #45,688
fernandopartridge said:

UK inflation rises to 2.3%, increasing pressure to delay interest rate cut

Figure is above Bank of England target after energy bills push up prices
www.theguardian.com

We're going to get energy price inflation + inflation from businesses looking to recover the costs of increased NI contributions. Who'd have thought austerity politics causes inflation.
Click to expand...

It was always obvious that prices will go up for most things to cover the increased costs.
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,689
fernandopartridge said:

UK inflation rises to 2.3%, increasing pressure to delay interest rate cut

Figure is above Bank of England target after energy bills push up prices
www.theguardian.com

We're going to get energy price inflation + inflation from businesses looking to recover the costs of increased NI contributions. Who'd have thought austerity politics causes inflation.
Click to expand...
No, you are wrong! We have been promised lower energy prices, £300 per year.
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,690
Interest rates won’t be coming down as a result of budget stoked inflation.
Starmer tries to deny a link between mortgage rates and government decisions, claiming rates are a decision for individual lenders.

Of course, he is broadly correct but ignores the fact that individual lenders base their decisions on a range of information and data, much of which is impacted by government decisions.

He really is a total clown,
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,691
Silly old twat

 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,692
MalcSB said:
Interest rates won’t be coming down as a result of budget stoked inflation.
Starmer tries to deny a link between mortgage rates and government decisions, claiming rates are a decision for individual lenders.

Of course, he is broadly correct but ignores the fact that individual lenders base their decisions on a range of information and data, much of which is impacted by government decisions.

He really is a total clown,
Click to expand...
Within seconds of the BoE lowering the rate I get an email saying the interest rate on my savings account is going down. Few days later same place emails to say mortgage rates aren't affected by changes in the BoE rate change as 'this has already been factored in', while also saying their mortgage interest rates are going up.

We get treated like idiots.
 
Reactions: Bertola, duffer and Sky_Blue_Dreamer
P

PVA

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,693
shmmeee said:
Silly old twat

Click to expand...

Saw that yesterday, what a fucking idiot.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,694
PVA said:
Saw that yesterday, what a fucking idiot.
Click to expand...

Abbott too. Really sad to see who is bought and paid for in British politics.
 
P

PVA

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,695
shmmeee said:
Abbott too. Really sad to see who is bought and paid for in British politics.
Click to expand...

Hadn't seen Abbott's.

Good fucking lord.


 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,696
At least I am not so big an idiot as to have voted for Labour.

Voter remorse?

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/two-five-britons-think-they-are-worse-labour-was-elected
 
Reactions: Earlsdon_Skyblue1
P

PVA

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,697
MalcSB said:
At least I am not so big an idiot as to have voted for Labour.

Voter remorse?

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/two-five-britons-think-they-are-worse-labour-was-elected
Click to expand...

Not as much voter remorse as those who voted Tory in 2019 according to that article.
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,698
PVA said:
Not as much voter remorse as those who voted Tory in 2019 according to that article.
Click to expand...
I thought that the score of only 29% of Labour voters feeling better off whilst 20% feel worse off was a surprise given how competent people seemed to feel a Labour government would be.

Still, its early days. Not all of the inflationary consequences of the budget have fed through yet.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,699
MalcSB said:
At least I am not so big an idiot as to have voted for Labour.

Voter remorse?

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/two-five-britons-think-they-are-worse-labour-was-elected
Click to expand...

Oh no. This years election will be a bloodbath!
 
Reactions: MalcSB

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,700
MalcSB said:
I thought that the score of only 29% of Labour voters feeling better off whilst 20% feel worse off was a surprise given how competent people seemed to feel a Labour government would be.

Still, its early days. Not all of the inflationary consequences of the budget have fed through yet.
Click to expand...

It seems another 0.5% hike is expected just from the budget tax hikes being passed to the customers
 
P

PVA

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,701
MalcSB said:
I thought that the score of only 29% of Labour voters feeling better off whilst 20% feel worse off was a surprise given how competent people seemed to feel a Labour government would be.

Still, its early days. Not all of the inflationary consequences of the budget have fed through yet.
Click to expand...

Just shows it's a bit of a nonsense really and totally prejudiced.

There's no way that 29% of Labour voters are better off and 4% of Reform voters are better off. Labour voters are likely to feel or claim they are better off even if they aren't, and Reform voters are going to feel or claim they are worse off even if they aren't.
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,702
shmmeee said:
Oh no. This years election will be a bloodbath!
Click to expand...

What is going to turn Labour's fortunes around? The OBR projects terrible household real wage growth (second worst parliament ever) which means they are fucked.
 
Reactions: MalcSB

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,703
fernandopartridge said:
What is going to turn Labour's fortunes around? The OBR projects terrible household real wage growth (second worst parliament ever) which means they are fucked.
Click to expand...

That’s the question. But the well stated strategy is to front load the bad news so I don’t think anyone at Labour HQ will be massively surprised by a poll four years out showing people haven’t felt the good news yet.

Just keep your powder dry. It’ll come.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,704
shmmeee said:
Just keep your powder dry. It’ll come.
Click to expand...

Hello Shugs hows it going ?
 
Reactions: fernandopartridge, CovValleyBoy and MalcSB

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,705
PVA said:
Just shows it's a bit of a nonsense really and totally prejudiced.
There's no way that 29% of Labour voters are better off and 4% of Reform voters are better off. Labour voters are likely to feel or claim they are better off even if they aren't, and Reform voters are going to feel or claim they are worse off even if they aren't.
Click to expand...
It’s about feelings, not actuality,

You know, like how things can be a hate crime if you that’s how you feel that it is.

Governments need a feel good factor if they are going to get a second term, things look they are going to get worse and some life long enemies have been made. For some of them - the old gits - life long enmity may not be viewed as a problem as we will all have frozen to death over the next 4 winters.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,706
MalcSB said:
It’s about feelings, not actuality,

You know, like how things can be a hate crime if you that’s how you feel that it is.

Governments need a feel good factor if they are going to get a second term, things look they are going to get worse and some life long enemies have been made. For some of them - the old gits - life long enmity may not be viewed as a problem as we will all have frozen to death over the next 4 winters.
Click to expand...

They’re mostly pissing off Tory voters at the moment TBF. They’re just not also making their voters happy. Starmer slow boring theory is that after five years people will look up and see immigration down, growth up, etc. There’s not much in terms of public opinion that’s going to sway him from that yet.
 
Reactions: SkyBlueCharlie9
P

PVA

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,707
MalcSB said:
It’s about feelings, not actuality,

You know, like how things can be a hate crime if you that’s how you feel that it is.

Governments need a feel good factor if they are going to get a second term, things look they are going to get worse and some life long enemies have been made. For some of them - the old gits - life long enmity may not be viewed as a problem as we will all have frozen to death over the next 4 winters.
Click to expand...

Reform voters are never going to be happy under this government, Labour won't be losing any sleep over only 4% of Reform voters feeling better off.

In fact, I'm surprised it's that high
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,708
PVA said:
Reform voters are never going to be happy under this government, Labour won't be losing any sleep over only 4% of Reform voters feeling better off.

In fact, I'm surprised it's that high
Click to expand...

That’s the 5 Reform MPs on their new salary.
 
Reactions: MalcSB and PVA

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,709
shmmeee said:
They’re mostly pissing off Tory voters at the moment TBF. They’re just not also making their voters happy. Starmer slow boring theory is that after five years people will look up and see immigration down, growth up, etc. There’s not much in terms of public opinion that’s going to sway him from that yet.
Click to expand...
He had better get a move on then. One of the things about getting older is that time passes by so fast. The next 4 years will be gone in a flash. Immigration will not have gone down, no growth, missed housing targets, hugely increased energy bills - and no Tories to blame.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 21, 2024
  • #45,710
MalcSB said:
He had better get a move on then. One of the things about getting older is that time passes by so fast. The next 4 years will be gone in a flash. Immigration will not have gone down, no growth, missed housing targets, hugely increased energy bills - and no Tories to blame.
Click to expand...

Well that’s the rub yes.
 
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