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Do you want to discuss boring politics? (13 Viewers)

  • Thread starter mrtrench
  • Start date Jun 14, 2020
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B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,856
MalcSB said:
And the winter fuel payment was half that and yet keeping it would have crashed the economy.
Click to expand...
Not quite Malcolm, the programmes would have similar overall cost. Point being we should have both while phasing out the WFP in favour of insulating the homes of the elderly.
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,857

Prison isn’t working for women, Labour says, as it unveils plans for alternatives

Shabana Mahmood tells conference she wants more help in community for offenders and fewer cases going to court
www.theguardian.com

I wonder how this will be abused.

 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,858
Brighton Sky Blue said:
Not quite Malcolm, the programmes would have similar overall cost. Point being we should have both while phasing out the WFP in favour of insulating the homes of the elderly.
Click to expand...
Shmmeee posted a paper showing the cost for universal free school meals at £2.5bn to which would have to be added some cost for the breakfasts. The winter fuel payment was £1.5bn.

I am happy to agree with your last sentence.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,859
MalcSB said:
Shmmeee posted a paper showing the cost for universal free school meals at £2.5bn to which would have to be added some cost for the breakfasts. The winter fuel payment was £1.5bn.

I am happy to agree with your last sentence.
Click to expand...
The government spends over £2 billion on the WFP programme each year. The £1.4 billion represents the saving from going to a means tested programme, not the total cost.
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,860
Brighton Sky Blue said:
The government spends over £2 billion on the WFP programme each year. The £1.4 billion represents the saving from going to a means tested programme, not the total cost.
Click to expand...
So universal free lunches and breakfast clubs would cost twice what has been saved from the winter fuel allowance.
 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,861
Brighton Sky Blue said:
It would amount to under 0.25% of government spending.
Click to expand...

It is tiny in the grand scheme of things, so is the WFP, so’s removing two child benefit cap which many wanted, so’a pay rises for docs and train drivers (which has opened a can of worms elsewhere - see nurses, who out of all of them deserved the better rises), so’s continuing to support Ukraine, so’s housing tens of thousands of migrants in hotels, so is sorting out the massive social care issue in the country etc etc They all add up though

What isn’t such a small share is the cost of servicing the government debt which will continue to be a larger proportion of GDP unless we get some more substantial growth into the economy

These are all tough political decisions/ choices with their own pros and cons in terms of costs and benefit. Said it before and I’ll say it again, the governments biggest mistake was ruling out rises to the main tax generators….should’ve just undone NIC cut, said it’s needed for social care and blamed the Tories for it being unfunded, however, would’ve taken balls and probably politically unpalatable
 
Reactions: wingy and MalcSB
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,862
CCFCSteve said:
It is tiny in the grand scheme of things, so is the WFP, so’s removing two child benefit cap which many wanted, so’a pay rises for docs and train drivers (which has opened a can of worms elsewhere - see nurses, who out of all of them deserved the better rises), so’s continuing to support Ukraine, so’s housing tens of thousands of migrants in hotels, so is sorting out the massive social care issue in the country etc etc They all add up though

What isn’t such a small share is the cost of servicing the government debt which will continue to be a larger proportion of GDP unless we get some more substantial growth into the economy

These are all tough political decisions/ choices with their own pros and cons in terms of costs and benefit. Said it before and I’ll say it again, the governments biggest mistake was ruling out rises to the main tax generators….should’ve just undone NIC cut, said it’s needed for social care and blamed the Tories for it being unfunded, however, would’ve taken balls and probably politically unpalatable
Click to expand...
The last part of this I agree entirely. They painted themselves into a corner on this when really they would have won a majority anyway.
 

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,863
Brighton Sky Blue said:
It would amount to under 0.25% of government spending.
Click to expand...
Government debt is just as large as GDP which is a trend that just can’t continue to keep growing.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,864
Mucca Mad Boys said:
Government debt is just as large as GDP which is a trend that just can’t continue to keep growing.
Click to expand...
How many countries worldwide operate a balanced budget or a surplus?
 

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,865
Brighton Sky Blue said:
How many countries worldwide operate a balanced budget or a surplus?
Click to expand...
This is day to day government spending. Around 7 countries (8 including UK) have a GDP to debt ratio above 100%. This impacts the cost of borrowing money so all of these spending commitments come with a hidden cost of servicing debt. For context, in 2023 the Government spent £110bn on servicing debt (interest) alone.

Either way, we seen how markets can react when a government announces plenty of unfunded spending commitments under Liz Truss. The energy cap coupled with tax cuts shook confidence. It showed that the next Government cannot just commit to loads of spending plans willy nilly without retribution from the markets.
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,866
Mucca Mad Boys said:
This is day to day government spending. Around 7 countries (8 including UK) have a GDP to debt ratio above 100%. This impacts the cost of borrowing money so all of these spending commitments come with a hidden cost of servicing debt. For context, in 2023 the Government spent £110bn on servicing debt (interest) alone.

Either way, we seen how markets can react when a government announces plenty of unfunded spending commitments under Liz Truss. The energy cap coupled with tax cuts shook confidence. It showed that the next Government cannot just commit to loads of spending plans willy nilly without retribution from the markets.
Click to expand...
I don’t think school meals will send the market spiralling like Trussonomics did.
 

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,867
Brighton Sky Blue said:
I don’t think school meals will send the market spiralling like Trussonomics did.
Click to expand...
In isolation, no of course not. That wasn’t the point and you know full well it wasn’t.

It is clear that you don’t really see a limit to government spending so every issue be it the NHS, public sector pay rises, pensions, winter fuel allowance, education, free school meals can be done away with just more government spending.
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,868
MalcSB said:
I would humbly invite you to take responsibility for your own problems and don’t blame a previous generation.
Click to expand...
Nah that’s one of the problems we all have a perspective that working together we can solve so much more than apart
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,869
MalcSB said:

Prison isn’t working for women, Labour says, as it unveils plans for alternatives

Shabana Mahmood tells conference she wants more help in community for offenders and fewer cases going to court
www.theguardian.com

I wonder how this will be abused.

View attachment 38628
Click to expand...
It’s exactly the same for men for very similar reasons
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,870
Brighton Sky Blue said:
I don’t think school meals will send the market spiralling like Trussonomics did.
Click to expand...
Reeves and latterly Starmer reckoned continuing with the winter fuel payments would have.
 
Reactions: Mucca Mad Boys

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,871
Sky Blue Pete said:
It’s exactly the same for men for very similar reasons
Click to expand...
TBH that wasn’t the point I was trying to make. As an aside, apparently trans women are already skewing female crime statistics.
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,872
MalcSB said:
TBH that wasn’t the point I was trying to make. As an aside, apparently trans women are already skewing female crime statistics.
Click to expand...
I’m sure
In the prison estate trans females are in male prisons
 
Reactions: MalcSB

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,873
chiefdave said:
Starmers conferance keynote is going well, this definitely won't be the only part anyone shares and remembers

Click to expand...
 

Ring Of Steel

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,874
MalcSB said:
And the winter fuel payment was half that and yet keeping it would have crashed the economy.
Click to expand...

We get it, you’re annoyed at the WFP going- despite saying you didn’t really need it. Always service to self.
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,875
Ring Of Steel said:
We get it, you’re annoyed at the WFP going- despite saying you didn’t really need it. Always service to self.
Click to expand...
I explained why I’m angry about the way they have done it in the same post as saying it is not a particular financial problem to me personally.

That isn’t service to self.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,876
Ring Of Steel said:
We get it, you’re annoyed at the WFP going- despite saying you didn’t really need it. Always service to self.
Click to expand...

I can’t see how that’s a service to self. Who is “we”? Are they two of you logging in?
 
Reactions: MalcSB and Mucca Mad Boys

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,877
Grendel said:
I can’t see how that’s a service to self. Who is “we”? Are they two of you logging in?
Click to expand...
I’m not sure some people understand the concept of taking a stand on principle despite the issue not having a significant personal impact.
 

Ring Of Steel

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,878
MalcSB said:
I’m not sure some people understand the concept of taking a stand on principle despite the issue not having a significant personal impact.
Click to expand...

well seeing as you’ve seemingly written off anyone who’s suffered with depression & anxiety as ‘woke’, I’m not sure you’re in a position to make statements like that.
 
Reactions: Grendel and MalcSB
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,879
Mucca Mad Boys said:
In isolation, no of course not. That wasn’t the point and you know full well it wasn’t.

It is clear that you don’t really see a limit to government spending so every issue be it the NHS, public sector pay rises, pensions, winter fuel allowance, education, free school meals can be done away with just more government spending.
Click to expand...
My argument for FSM is that, for the modest cost, it is a high impact policy that would have a good number of benefits.
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,880
MalcSB said:
What’s the explanation for the shorter American kids?
Click to expand...

CCFCSteve said:
It is tiny in the grand scheme of things, so is the WFP, so’s removing two child benefit cap which many wanted, so’a pay rises for docs and train drivers (which has opened a can of worms elsewhere - see nurses, who out of all of them deserved the better rises), so’s continuing to support Ukraine, so’s housing tens of thousands of migrants in hotels, so is sorting out the massive social care issue in the country etc etc They all add up though

What isn’t such a small share is the cost of servicing the government debt which will continue to be a larger proportion of GDP unless we get some more substantial growth into the economy

These are all tough political decisions/ choices with their own pros and cons in terms of costs and benefit. Said it before and I’ll say it again, the governments biggest mistake was ruling out rises to the main tax generators….should’ve just undone NIC cut, said it’s needed for social care and blamed the Tories for it being unfunded, however, would’ve taken balls and probably politically unpalatable
Click to expand...

'Servicing debt' = giving value to private sector investments like pension funds. Spending on improving services does grow the economy? Every penny spent by the government is money paid into the private sector. Where is the growth going to come from if not the government? Credit creation by private banks?

Anyway, the costing of FSM and WFP is very simplistic, it doesn't account for the savings made elsewhere, particularly in relation to the latter. For any elderly person that has a hospital stay that might have been avoided had they been in a properly heated home, the costs of that will have paid their WFP many many times over.
 
Reactions: Sky_Blue_Dreamer, wingy and MalcSB

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,881
Brighton Sky Blue said:
My argument for FSM is that, for the modest cost, it is a high impact policy that would have a good number of benefits.
Click to expand...
Noted, but you more or less make the same argument for many issues and the costs tally up. You either accept there’s a limit to public spending or not.

£110bn in servicing debt and that will only increase with an increased deficit fueled by borrowing. The NHS budget, just to contrast, was £181.7bn in 2022/23.

That’s massive and with little economic growth it’s an unsustainable settlement.
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,882
fernandopartridge said:
'Servicing debt' = giving value to private sector investments like pension funds. Spending on improving services does grow the economy? Every penny spent by the government is money paid into the private sector. Where is the growth going to come from if not the government? Credit creation by private banks?

Anyway, the costing of FSM and WFP is very simplistic, it doesn't account for the savings made elsewhere, particularly in relation to the latter. For any elderly person that has a hospital stay that might have been avoided had they been in a properly heated home, the costs of that will have paid their WFP many many times over.
Click to expand...
How very, very true your last sentence is. If only there had been a proper impact assessment carried out.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,883
Mucca Mad Boys said:
Noted, but you more or less make the same argument for many issues and the costs tally up. You either accept there’s a limit to public spending or not.

£110bn in servicing debt and that will only increase with an increased deficit fueled by borrowing. The NHS budget, just to contrast, was £181.7bn in 2022/23.

That’s massive and with little economic growth it’s an unsustainable settlement.
Click to expand...
I have not said that the government has infinite funds, but many spending decisions are a political choice rather than a financial necessity. There is also the case that some spending decisions could have an up front hit, but make financial sense in the longer term-see house insulation as one such example.

In my view education and healthcare should be the top national priorities and my views on spending are pretty consistent with that.
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,884
Brighton Sky Blue said:
I have not said that the government has infinite funds, but many spending decisions are a political choice rather than a financial necessity. There is also the case that some spending decisions could have an up front hit, but make financial sense in the longer term-see house insulation as one such example.

In my view education and healthcare should be the top national priorities and my views on spending are pretty consistent with that.
Click to expand...

The government does have infinite funds. It just needs to control inflation risk resulting from spending it.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,885
fernandopartridge said:
The government does have infinite funds. It just needs to control inflation risk resulting from spending it.
Click to expand...
If it had infinite funds wouldn’t it just clear its debts overnight?
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,886
Brighton Sky Blue said:
If it had infinite funds wouldn’t it just clear its debts overnight?
Click to expand...

It can do that if it wishes to yes, nobody in their right mind would want no goverment debt mind you as it represents private sector savings.
 
W

wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,887
fernandopartridge said:
It can do that if it wishes to yes, nobody in their right mind would want no goverment debt mind you as it represents private sector savings.
Click to expand...
Like paying down the mortgage or clearing it completely?
 

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,888
fernandopartridge said:
The government does have infinite funds. It just needs to control inflation risk resulting from spending it.
Click to expand...
So it doesn’t have infinite funds then. Inflation, economic confidence, debt burden are all limitations and you know this.

One of the many reasons our inflation is stickier than our counterparts is our public spending and debt.
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,889
Mucca Mad Boys said:
One of the many reasons our inflation is stickier than our counterparts is our public spending and debt.
Click to expand...

Explain how public debt fuels inflation.
 
Reactions: wingy

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 25, 2024
  • #43,890
wingy said:
Like paying down the mortgage or clearing it completely?
Click to expand...

What's the most reliable, rock solid, guaranteed to be repaid investment you can buy?
 
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