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Do you want to discuss boring politics? (19 Viewers)

  • Thread starter mrtrench
  • Start date Jun 14, 2020
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C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,206
Sick Boy said:
The more people become disillusioned, the more chance there is of someone like him becoming PM. I genuinely think it’s a possibility if the Tories decide to lurch even further to the right.
Click to expand...

Agree with this. Would be a big mistake but they’re currently the party of self harm so wouldn’t shock me at all. Also by moving labour to centre left it makes it very difficult for Tories to operate in that centre space, especially after 14 years in government, so they might naturally edge further right…well, initially at least.
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,207
Grendel said:
A £40 billion black hole in their spending plans is a pretty big whopper
Click to expand...
Expand on how that’s a lie
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,208
Sick Boy said:
The more people become disillusioned, the more chance there is of someone like him becoming PM. I genuinely think it’s a possibility if the Tories decide to lurch even further to the right.
Click to expand...

I can’t see it. He’s too divisive. Johnson only won because he was up against Corbyn who was even more divisive and because Brexit was still in doubt. Any normal politician at a normal time would wipe the floor with them because of how our electoral system works. Ideologues don’t tend to get broad support across the country.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,209
CCFCSteve said:
Agree with this. Would be a big mistake but they’re currently the party of self harm so wouldn’t shock me at all. Also by moving labour to centre left it makes it very difficult for Tories to operate in that centre space, especially after 14 years in government, so they might naturally edge further right…well, initially at least.
Click to expand...

Think they’ll go full Labour 2015 and elect a head banger in opposition. All the moderates left under Johnson so don’t even need to go through that stage. Though people talk about Modaunt who is pretty centrist so will be interesting to see. Can’t see an obvious figure in the right but there’s plenty of nutters who will fancy a go.

Of course a big question is who will be left with a seat after this election.
 
Reactions: CCFCSteve
P

PVA

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,210
Grendel said:
A £40 billion black hole in their spending plans is a pretty big whopper
Click to expand...

That's a figure the Tories have made up.
 
Reactions: Deleted member 9744

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,211
Sky Blue Pete said:
Expand on how that’s a lie
Click to expand...
They said all their plans were funded so if there’s a £40bn black hole, someone at HQ is either lying or terrible at maths.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,212
Mucca Mad Boys said:
They said all their plans were funded so if there’s a £40bn black hole, someone at HQ is either lying or terrible at maths.
Click to expand...

There’s not. The £40bn figure makes some absolutely mental assumptions.
 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,213
Grendel said:
A £40 billion black hole in their spending plans is a pretty big whopper
Click to expand...

Yeah, the ‘no tax rises’ in next Parliament position from both main parties is bollocks

The one thing that I’m wondering though is whether Labour hope that maybe getting a closer trading arrangement with the EU might boost gdp/growth thereby reducing any hole. If I was them I’d explore this.
 

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,214
shmmeee said:
Think they’ll go full Labour 2015 and elect a head banger in opposition. All the moderates left under Johnson so don’t even need to go through that stage. Though people talk about Modaunt who is pretty centrist so will be interesting to see. Can’t see an obvious figure in the right but there’s plenty of nutters who will fancy a go.

Of course a big question is who will be left with a seat after this election.
Click to expand...
Mordaunt is odds-on to lose her seat. It genuinely wouldn’t surprise me to see Farage stage a takeover of the tories if the polls get any worst for the tories. Gaffe after gaffe is gifting Labour an easy election.
 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,215
shmmeee said:
There’s not. The £40bn figure makes some absolutely mental assumptions.
Click to expand...

Yeah, not sure if it’s that high but pretty sure both have a hole during next Parliament unless cuts are made. Can’t see Labour cutting so they will have to find cash from tax rises
 

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,216
shmmeee said:
I can’t see it. He’s too divisive. Johnson only won because he was up against Corbyn who was even more divisive and because Brexit was still in doubt. Any normal politician at a normal time would wipe the floor with them because of how our electoral system works. Ideologues don’t tend to get broad support across the country.
Click to expand...
I hope you’re right but I have my doubts.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,217
Mucca Mad Boys said:
Mordaunt is odds-on to lose her seat. It genuinely wouldn’t surprise me to see Farage stage a takeover of the tories if the polls get any worst for the tories. Gaffe after gaffe is gifting Labour an easy election.
Click to expand...

There’s no mechanism by which he could take over the Tories and by all accounts he hates their guts. Unless he gets elected (big if considering his record) defects post election, and wins a leadership contest. Which is three quite unlikely scenarios.

I think he wants to be an AfD/PPV type
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,218
CCFCSteve said:
Yeah, not sure if it’s that high but pretty sure both have a hole during next Parliament unless cuts are made. Can’t see Labour cutting so they will have to find cash from tax rises
Click to expand...

Yeah both do, the numbers for post 2024 have been fantasy for a while.
 

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,219
shmmeee said:
There’s no mechanism by which he could take over the Tories and by all accounts he hates their guts. Unless he gets elected (big if considering his record) defects post election, and wins a leadership contest. Which is three quite unlikely scenarios.

I think he wants to be an AfD/PPV type
Click to expand...
I reckon his plan is to try and get elected and then defect when the time is right. Unfortunately, I think he’ll get elected this time.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,220
Sick Boy said:
I hope you’re right but I have my doubts.
Click to expand...

Reform don’t have the localised support or the ground campaign to win seats. He’s have to take over the Tories and I just can’t see it.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,221
Sick Boy said:
I reckon his plan is to try and get elected and then defect when the time is right. Unfortunately, I think he’ll get elected this time.
Click to expand...

Yeah he may well do. I don’t think he’d have run unless he was pretty sure. Weirdly the best thing Labour could do if they wanted to stop it would be stand down and advise people to vote Tory. Which ain’t going to happen.
 

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,222
Sick Boy said:
The more people become disillusioned, the more chance there is of someone like him becoming PM. I genuinely think it’s a possibility if the Tories decide to lurch even further to the right.
Click to expand...
Ask tories how right wing the government is and the answer you’ll get is ‘they’re not’. Part of the reason Reform got to 13% in the polls is the perception that the government is basically ‘social democrat’.

I believe Sunak when he says he’s Thatcherite. The economic shocks of COVID and the war in Ukraine have provided unprecedented demands for government intervention and public expenditure. All which needs to be bought and paid for.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,223
CCFCSteve said:
Agree with this. Would be a big mistake but they’re currently the party of self harm so wouldn’t shock me at all. Also by moving labour to centre left it makes it very difficult for Tories to operate in that centre space, especially after 14 years in government, so they might naturally edge further right…well, initially at least.
Click to expand...

Farage really is Enoch Powell as of today. It’s about the only biography I’ve read.

He was the first populist and would easily have swept to power other than his blind vanity and overall belief he was the cleverest man on the planet.

Workers threatened to strike when he was removed from the shadow cabinet. He frequently mocked Heath for his dumb ignorance and stupidity. Even the rivers of blood speech was arrogance as he thought it was clever to show his superiority in Latin and compare immigration to the Tiber.

He was also of course - along with his long time best friend Michael Foot - anti EEC and anti immigration.

If he wasn’t so arrogant he would have been prime minister. Working classes loved Powell.

It’s odd his stupid show off Rivers of Blood speech gets all the attention. His Water Tower speech showed him as a rather inept stupid man whose policies have essentially ruined the NHS
 

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,224
shmmeee said:
Reform don’t have the localised support or the ground campaign to win seats. He’s have to take over the Tories and I just can’t see it.
Click to expand...
To be clear I mean he’d do it via the Tories rather than Reform.
 

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,225
shmmeee said:
Reform don’t have the localised support or the ground campaign to win seats. He’s have to take over the Tories and I just can’t see it.
Click to expand...

Why not? If he gets elected in Clacton there’s every chance. The Tory MPs will be reduced to a rump and he’s a character that is overwhelmingly popular among their membership.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,226
Mucca Mad Boys said:
Ask tories how right wing the government is and the answer you’ll get is ‘they’re not’. Part of the reason Reform got to 13% in the polls is the perception that the government is basically ‘social democrat’.

I believe Sunak when he says he’s Thatcherite. The economic shocks of COVID and the war in Ukraine have provided unprecedented demands for government intervention and public expenditure. All which needs to be bought and paid for.
Click to expand...

That’s the fringes for you. People think Starmer and Blair are right wing.

Actually having to do things tends to lead to being quite centrist or being Liz Truss.

I really don’t think a mental party would last here like on the continent where coalitions mean you can graft some sense into the party to hide behind. Farage or similar gets in I think he’d fuck things up so bad people would forget entirely about immigration and as the Tories have shown even if you really want to be mean to migrants the reality of immigration tends to mean you can’t.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,227
Mucca Mad Boys said:
Why not? If he gets elected in Clacton there’s every chance. The Tory MPs will be reduced to a rump and he’s a character that is overwhelmingly popular among their membership.
Click to expand...

I think it would be the end of the Tories if he did.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,228
Sky Blue Pete said:
Expand on how that’s a lie
Click to expand...

Because their spending plans are going to require increased taxes or slashed public services - I wouldnt described Martin Lewis as a Tory but he ripped Ainsworth apart on it the other day. The promises don’t meet the required spend.
 
Reactions: Mucca Mad Boys
N

Northants Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,229
Im no Tarzan fan but he clocked Farage as Mosley reincarnate a looong time ago.

If the elections already won the next biggest fight is stopping him wining Clacton.

 

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,230
shmmeee said:
That’s the fringes for you. People think Starmer and Blair are right wing.

Actually having to do things tends to lead to being quite centrist or being Liz Truss.

I really don’t think a mental party would last here like on the continent where coalitions mean you can graft some sense into the party to hide behind. Farage or similar gets in I think he’d fuck things up so bad people would forget entirely about immigration and as the Tories have shown even if you really want to be mean to migrants the reality of immigration tends to mean you can’t.
Click to expand...

Blair economically accepted free markets and introduced market reforms in the public sector (education and healthcare) and achieved budget surpluses. So can see why the Labour left brands him ‘right wing’. Balanced that out with increases in welfare spending, so he’d fit in as a One Nation Tory in another lifetime.

This idea that you need to be centrist is true of the consensus we live in today. The Blair-Brown years established an era of consensus politics that’s probably coming to an end. Personally, I don’t think Labour will fix the issues around; healthcare, housing, economic growth or immigration. They at least deserve a shot at fixing it. We’re in for another era of stagflation akin to the 70s in my view.

From there, who knows what will happen? If Farage stages a hostile takeover or the Tories find their own answer will interesting.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,231
Northants Sky Blue said:
Im no Tarzan fan but he clocked Farage as Mosley reincarnate a looong time ago.

If the elections already won the next biggest fight is stopping him wining Clacton.

Click to expand...

Hes a wanker.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,232
Mucca Mad Boys said:
Blair economically accepted free markets and introduced market reforms in the public sector (education and healthcare) and achieved budget surpluses. So can see why the Labour left brands him ‘right wing’. Balanced that out with increases in welfare spending, so he’d fit in as a One Nation Tory in another lifetime.

This idea that you need to be centrist is true of the consensus we live in today. The Blair-Brown years established an era of consensus politics that’s probably coming to an end. Personally, I don’t think Labour will fix the issues around; healthcare, housing, economic growth or immigration. They at least deserve a shot at fixing it. We’re in for another era of stagflation akin to the 70s in my view.

From there, who knows what will happen? If Farage stages a hostile takeover or the Tories find their own answer will interesting.
Click to expand...

LOL at calling budget surplus right wing!

It’s not about consensus. It’s about what’s possible in a modern world. 1970s style politics can’t work because of how global capital and to an extent labour is these days. Internet politics doesn’t actually work IRL. As Truss found out.
 

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,233
shmmeee said:
I think it would be the end of the Tories if he did.
Click to expand...
If Labour can survive Corbyn, I think the Tories could survive Farage. The latter is actually a popular populist and Corbyn had net negative ratings from Day 1.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,234
Mucca Mad Boys said:
If Labour can survive Corbyn, I think the Tories could survive Farage. The latter is actually a popular populist and Corbyn had net negative ratings from Day 1.
Click to expand...

Corbyn was a lot closer to your average Labour voter than Farage is to the average Tory.
 
Reactions: Skybluekyle, Deleted member 5849 and Sky Blue Pete

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,235
shmmeee said:
Corbyn was a lot closer to your average Labour voter than Farage is to the average Tory.
Click to expand...

He was until he fudged the Brexit debate
 
Reactions: Skybluekyle and Mucca Mad Boys

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,236
shmmeee said:
LOL at calling budget surplus right wing!
Click to expand...
I’m not calling it right wing, but balanced budgets are associated with ‘small government’ and you won’t get many on the left calling for budget surpluses.

It’s contextual Shmmeee, who was calling Blair RW? Certainly not tories but the Labour left.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,237
Mucca Mad Boys said:
I’m not calling it right wing, but balanced budgets are associated with ‘small government’ and you won’t get many on the left calling for budget surpluses.

It’s contextual Shmmeee, who was calling Blair RW? Certainly not tories but the Labour left.
Click to expand...

Exactly. The same as the people calling Sunak LW are the Tory right.
 

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,238
shmmeee said:
Corbyn was a lot closer to your average Labour voter than Farage is to the average Tory.
Click to expand...
Two questions:

1) Why is Reform overtaking the tories in the polls?
2) Why is Farage so popular among Tory members?
 

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,239
shmmeee said:
Exactly. The same as the people calling Sunak LW are the Tory right.
Click to expand...
We’re saying the same thing here.
 
Reactions: shmmeee

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 8, 2024
  • #37,240
Mucca Mad Boys said:
Two questions:

1) Why is Reform overtaking the tories in the polls?
2) Why is Farage so popular among Tory members?
Click to expand...

Also popular with traditional working class Labour voters
 
Reactions: Ashdown
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