Ring Of Steel
Well-Known Member
I take your point- I don’t think we’re unlucky. I think our strikers are badly underperforming, meaning we’re failing to convert, and.. now we are where we are.
100% but people keep saying that teams have been lucky like we have been hard done too. I'm just pointing out we have had our own fair share of luck.
I don't see Derby being lucky with the Rudoni back pass. Rudoni didn't even look, the striker anticipated it, it was poor play by Rudoni not poor luck.
I take your point- I don’t think we’re unlucky. I think our strikers are badly underperforming, meaning we’re failing to convert, and.. now we are where we are.
I don’t know why we bother go to matches or playing football.
We should just leave it to the ipad wankers to tell us where our team has finished.
Exactly, and the same about 7 or 8 we've scored. We haven't been unlucky, that's just football.
That's true yesterday but isn't always true, a team may have a low xGA but they have had 1-2 high quality chances but the rest of their shots are from 25 yards, whist we have had a lot of long rangers or low quality shots but the cumulation is a higher xG.Well according to the xG table the strikers are actually not doing too badly, slightly underperforming. I guess really really good strikers would outperform the xG though…
However, the xGA and the GA are the biggest difference (no shit, we’re conceding silly goals from positions where the attacking player doesn’t actually have a great chance).
That's true yesterday but isn't always true, a team may have a low xGA but they have had 1-2 high quality chances but the rest of their shots are from 25 yards, whist we have had a lot of long rangers or low quality shots but the cumulation is a higher xG.
Coincidentally the best chance of the game was Aaron Connolly's on the 81st minute 0.24
Yesterday both teams had an xG of 0.66 so both teams over performed significantly.
Coincidentally the best chance of the game was Aaron Connolly's on the 81st minute 0.24
Yesterday both teams had an xG of 0.66 so both teams over performed significantly.
Coincidentally the best chance of the game was Aaron Connolly's on the 81st minute 0.24
Well they will have low XG on their goals as they were both worldies
xG +/- shouldn’t really be used in this way.
To do it properly you should use an xPts simulation.
Go on then Cam, give it to us!
2025-2026 Championship League Table
The 2025-2026 Championship League Table showing the record of every team in the tournament throughout the seasonthefishy.co.uk
This one has us 5/6th. Thought we might be lower tbf.
Spot on and this is why I believed strongly that Robins was/would turn it around.View attachment 39371
We are 4th, (5th in the xGd table).
Some over achievers in there (Sunderland, West Brom, Millwall, Blackburn) and under achievers (Luton, Middlesbrough, Hull, Cardiff).
This is why whoever comes in, I expect us and some of those underachieving teams with decent forwards to start climbing the table. If Robins had stayed, I imagine we’d have seen the same.
2025-2026 Championship League Table
The 2025-2026 Championship League Table showing the record of every team in the tournament throughout the seasonthefishy.co.uk
This one has us 5/6th. Thought we might be lower tbf.
so the xg has us fourth, predicted points has us 6th- but yet Robins had apparently lost it and had to go as we were spiralling towards relegation, as opposed to the players not finishing chances.
We’ve scored 20 off 20.9 xg, our players are finishing chances.so the xg has us fourth, predicted points has us 6th- but yet Robins had apparently lost it and had to go as we were spiralling towards relegation, as opposed to the players not finishing chances.
We’ve scored 20 off 20.9 xg, our players are finishing chances.
We were never going to get relegated.
Well, as the last week has shown the forum seems to be full of people prone to hysteria.I agree- yet we had endless posts on here detailing how we had no chance of even getting to 50 points, how we were already in a relegation dogfight, and how Robins’ time was up as we were heading straight to League One.
Well, as the last week has shown the forum seems to be full of people prone to hysteria.
We weren’t and aren’t getting relegated - yesterday was a perfect example of the individual quality we do have even when we’re not performing that well as a unit.
Obviously I called for Robins out and I stand by it, although I do think the Luton and Boro results should have bought him a bit more time.
That’s not quite what the posts said is it, but crack on.I agree- yet we had endless posts on here detailing how we had no chance of even getting to 50 points, how we were already in a relegation dogfight, and how Robins’ time was up as we were heading straight to League One.
Well, as the last week has shown the forum seems to be full of people prone to hysteria.
We weren’t and aren’t getting relegated - yesterday was a perfect example of the individual quality we do have even when we’re not performing that well as a unit.
Obviously I called for Robins out and I stand by it, although I do think the Luton and Boro results should have bought him a bit more time.
More a comment that xG isn't the "be all and end all" of determining probability of success in the division. We've scored 20 goals (that's top 6ish in the division). It's goals conceded that are probably the bigger determining factor for where we are in the League and ultimately what cost MR his job.Not trying to dig you out, but isn't your first sentence a pretty obvious statement and something we'd expect?
I'm pretty 'meh' with all this xG stuff to be honest.
And before I get responses saying I'm thick or don't understand, I'm well into Strokes Gained in the world of golf. Those are around actuals though - how a golfer compares to the rest, measured on a number of aspects of the game.
As far as I can see, xG is all about what 'should've happen.
Happy for anyone to convince me otherwise....but none of that chess nonsense Philosoraptor.
I agree- yet we had endless posts on here detailing how we had no chance of even getting to 50 points, how we were already in a relegation dogfight, and how Robins’ time was up as we were heading straight to League One.
Can you show any posts that say we wouldn’t get to 50 points?
A couple of People were talking about relegation or being in a relationship fight
I never said anythingWhich isn’t again what you have actually said.
I assume he is referring to a thread of mine where even there I don't say it's a certainty we won't get to 50Can you show any posts that say we wouldn’t get to 50 points?
Most of our goals this season have been gifts. The two goals we conceded against Derby was just amateurish.Our actual goals compared to our XG isn’t really the issue. Our problem is our XGA and GA tab. Thats a key indicator to what we all know, we’re way to leaky in defence. If our actual GA was in line with our XGA we would be sitting pretty.
I think he might, but in a very different way.Think if I started talking about the Standard Deviation of XG some people may spontaneously combust. Apart from Philosorapter.
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