Crystal Ball (1 Viewer)

covboy1987 · Aug 13, 2013

My theory is twofold one being that Haskall will buy half the stadium soon and the rest at a later date which will send out a clear message that there is no chance of a reconciliation of Sisu purchasing the stadium off the council and higgs trust
The council and Higgs will make the deal attractive enough financially so Haskell can purchase the club off Sisu at the Sisu asking price as clearly all other avenues have not worked-
The other theory is Haskell renting the stadium to Sisu at a deal to suit both parties and something done so Sisu receive all revenues on match days as haskell a new face to Sisu will not have the personal problems which seems to have gotton in the way of all parties -maybe a new look at things from a completely different landlord possibly might be the key

oldskyblue58 · Aug 13, 2013

its a theory or two certainly.

Not saying any of it would happen but if the Ricoh was effectively blocked off from SISU why would you need to pay them much(anything) for the club?

SISU would be saddled with a club that was leaking money, no option but to seek another ground to rent or build, debt increasing, income reduced, a greatly reduced fan base, links to Coventry all but broken, losses every year, no real prospects of paying down the debts. Very little if any value in it.

Personally I wouldnt pay much for it, I certainly wouldnt help dig them out of a hole, and there wont be a long line of bidders for the club. Prospects are get out at any price you can get, continue investing knowing there will be no return or to liquidate

Paxman II · Aug 13, 2013

The only way out of this will be a deal of 'some kind' with SISU (Otium) and nothing will change until that is done.

If what you say Haskell took on the stadium in a deal with the council then needed the franchise of CCFC then he would be faced with having to find 70m to see SISU go. Now on top of the stadium deal would he be willing to part with that kind of money?

A deal initially must be found to bring the current owners back to the City and the Ricoh. make the deal suitable to SISU's end goal and exit strategy. Talk now about how that can be done. That is the only way we can see our club back at the Ricoh and SISU out. One step at a time.

covboy1987 · Aug 13, 2013

Paxman II said:
The only way out of this will be a deal of 'some kind' with SISU (Otium) and nothing will change until that is done.

If what you say Haskell took on the stadium in a deal with the council then needed the franchise of CCFC then he would be faced with having to find 70m to see SISU go. Now on top of the stadium deal would he be willing to part with that kind of money?

A deal initially must be found to bring the current owners back to the City and the Ricoh. make the deal suitable to SISU's end goal and exit strategy. Talk now about how that can be done. That is the only way we can see our club back at the Ricoh and SISU out. One step at a time.

I saw somewhere last week that one of the Sisu directors mentioned £30 million to disappear

oldskyblue58 · Aug 13, 2013

dont see why anyone would offer sisu 70m to go ...... infact i doubt sisu would expect anything like that amount

If a 3rd party bought in to the Ricoh and was confident that it would be successful (why buy in otherwise) then the effect is to distress SISU's investment in CCFC (assuming their plan was to buy the Ricoh freehold)

getting CCFC back at the Ricoh with SISU first is not the only way to get this done ..... but it is the least risky way for CCFC

RPHunt · Aug 13, 2013

As mentioned in another thread, in a report published today accountancy firm BDO disclosed that a recent survey showed 36% of League One club owners are considering a full or partial exit in the next 12 to 18 months.

So if there are going to be 8-10 League One clubs for sale in the next year, that is going to provide a significant drag on the price that any of those owners can expect. Where will that leave SISU and CCFC in 12 months time if ACL do find an alternative tenant? A club with no permanent stadium, no fan base and, perhaps heading into League Two will be worthless.

SISU have shown a distinct lack of expertise up to now, but surely they must acknowledge this bleak scenario and act quickly. If they have any sense, they will take whatever deal they can get from ACL and sell up ASAP.

SIR ERNIE · Aug 13, 2013

oldskyblue58 said:
dont see why anyone would offer sisu 70m to go ...... infact i doubt sisu would expect anything like that amount

If a 3rd party bought in to the Ricoh and was confident that it would be successful (why buy in otherwise) then the effect is to distress SISU's investment in CCFC (assuming their plan was to buy the Ricoh freehold)

getting CCFC back at the Ricoh with SISU first is not the only way to get this done ..... but it is the least risky way for CCFC

yep, you're making total sense to me oldskyblue.

I really do believe that SISU's (Otium's) days are numbered.

Hugh Jarse · Aug 13, 2013

Will Haskell be any better than SISU?

Before we all hail Haskell as the new messiah, have a good hard think about what his motives are for buying into us.

Yet another Johnny Foreigner wanting a piece of a British soccer team. I reckon he only wants the stadium and will use CCFC as a bargaining tool to get it and we'll be further up shit creek than we were before.

James Smith · Aug 13, 2013

Hugh Jarse said:
Will Haskell be any better than SISU?

Before we all hail Haskell as the new messiah, have a good hard think about what his motives are for buying into us.

Yet another Johnny Foreigner wanting a piece of a British soccer team. I reckon he only wants the stadium and will use CCFC as a bargaining tool to get it and we'll be further up shit creek than we were before.

You can say the same thing about SISU

I reckon She only wants the stadium and will use CCFC as a bargaining tool to get it.

Only think is PH4 might be willing to offer more than a tube of smarties, or whatever lowball offer Joy made.

Paxman II · Aug 13, 2013

70M was figuratively speaking OSB in order to make the point. It's often been a figure used at will on here.

I think an offer of somewhere between 20 or 30m would be bitten by SISU and they would go.
I also think it's always been the best way forward.
Any other way as you are suggesting would most likely lead to the disappearance of our club for good.

RPHunt · Aug 13, 2013

Paxman II said:
I think an offer of somewhere between 20 or 30m would be bitten by SISU and they would go.

£20 or £30m? Bates sold Leeds for £17m and they weren't groundless, fanless or bottom of League 1.

Cheshire Sky Blue · Aug 13, 2013

Paxman II said:
The only way out of this will be a deal of 'some kind' with SISU (Otium) and nothing will change until that is done.

If what you say Haskell took on the stadium in a deal with the council then needed the franchise of CCFC then he would be faced with having to find 70m to see SISU go. Now on top of the stadium deal would he be willing to part with that kind of money?

A deal initially must be found to bring the current owners back to the City and the Ricoh. make the deal suitable to SISU's end goal and exit strategy. Talk now about how that can be done. That is the only way we can see our club back at the Ricoh and SISU out. One step at a time.

SISU will always try to up the anti on price. But if Haskell is half the businessman we hope he is then he will have a value already calculated. That will be based on potential revenues the football side of the business can generate and the marriage value of club and arena, and not what SISU say they have invested. Fisher and Seppala may be hated but they aren't dumb. They know what the value is. If it does happen what's the betting it was for an undisclosed fee!

skyblueman · Aug 13, 2013

RPHunt said:
£20 or £30m? Bates sold Leeds for £17m and they weren't groundless, fanless or bottom of League 1.

If the prospect of the RICOH is pulled away from SISU then it's game over - the club is effectively worthless

Nonleagueherewecome · Aug 13, 2013

covboy1987 said:
I saw somewhere last week that one of the Sisu directors mentioned £30 million to disappear

He's 'avin a laff!

James Smith · Aug 13, 2013

Does anyone think that if the Higgs sold their share to someone who actually has some money (PH4 is the example banded around but doean't have to be him) and CCC went into negotiations over their share of ACL with the same person, that Fisher/Joy would:
i) actually then build the White Elephant just to spite CCC, or
ii) Launch legal proceedings against everyone, or
iii) sell up?

James Smith · Aug 13, 2013

skyblueman said:
If the prospect of the RICOH is pulled away from SISU then it's game over - the club is effectively worthless

I like your avatar, John Astin is a legend!

Nonleagueherewecome · Aug 13, 2013

James Smith said:
Does anyone think that if the Higgs sold their share to someone who actually has some money (PH4 is the example banded around but doean't have to be him) and CCC went into negotiations over their share of ACL with the same person, that Fisher/Joy would:
i) actually then build the White Elephant just to spite CCC, or
ii) Launch legal proceedings against everyone, or
iii) sell up?

Option ii) probably.

lordsummerisle · Aug 13, 2013

RPHunt said:
£20 or £30m? Bates sold Leeds for £17m and they weren't groundless, fanless or bottom of League 1.

Yep, and Preston didn't have enough money for that.

Though think the ground is owned seperately by some dodgy Cayman Islands company.

RPHunt · Aug 13, 2013

lordsummerisle said:
Yep, and Preston didn't have enough money for that.

Though think the ground is owned seperately by some dodgy Cayman Islands company.

I should imagine that he (and many others) thought that £17m was far too much for Leeds. So what does that make CCFC worth?

The ground is owned by a company registered in the British Virgin Islands - the Cayman Islands is where the owners of the Ricoh will be registered if SISU ever get their hands on it.

lordsummerisle · Aug 13, 2013

RPHunt said:
I should imagine that he (and many others) thought that £17m was far too much for Leeds. So what does that make CCFC worth?

The ground is owned by a company registered in the British Virgin Islands - the Cayman Islands is where the owners of the Ricoh will be registered if SISU ever get their hands on it.

That's okay then, nothing dodgy about the British Virgin Islands, was worried for a bit then!

James Smith · Aug 13, 2013

lordsummerisle said:
That's okay then, nothing dodgy about the British Virgin Islands, was worried for a bit then!

No they're squeaky clean

http://www.icij.org/offshore/son-fo...ret-offshore-company-amid-familys-tax-evasion

Honest Guv.

More here http://www.icij.org/offshore

Dhinsa's_Millions · Aug 13, 2013

SISU (Otium) will need to make their minds up fast - they need to keep some of the clubs worth by selling soon. The longer they make up fake stadium plans the more fan alienation and less the club is worth. What is a league 2 club with no ground and massively lower home gates worth.These gates were 50% down since they took over before admin!

I can only see an offer with staged payments upon promotion working. I can't see that 70 million is the true debt. They would have to write some of this off. 10 million up front is generous!

lordsummerisle · Aug 13, 2013

Dhinsa's_Millions said:
I can only see an offer with staged payments upon promotion working. I can't see that 70 million is the true debt. They would have to write some of this off. 10 million up front is generous!

Think that is similar to how it was structured when Sisu took over.

Didn't exactly work for Robinson that one, but I'll control my sorrow.

jimmyhillsfanclub · Aug 13, 2013

Just playing devils advocate....but Haskell may just buy the Ricoh & then sell it on to Sisu/Otium as he knows they are desperate for it......

....If I was a foreign businessman with absolutely no emotional attachment to the "soccer team" & city.....that's what I'd do.

...easy money for a middle man.

...just saying.

Paxman II · Aug 13, 2013

I think we all need to understand what Coventry City is worth in terms of potential and if you like historical significance before making suggestions we are worthless.

Now if Yeovil were for sale and no stadium I think it's worth very little. Now if Coventry City were for sale (a major conurbation, huge historical fan base etc etc) with no current stadium I still think there would be plenty of buyers offering beyond 10m. Assure the buyer of a stadium like the Ricoh and the buyer might up his limit to double that in theory. Now is that not what we wanted to see happen from Haskell's bid? The problem was they were trying to get it via the admin process on the cheap and failed.

As someone said Leeds went for 17m? Well that's cheap as chips for a club of that stature. The biggest problem these days is the money required to buy over inflated players to get to the promised land.
I'm sure Haskell only ever had his mind on development opportunities.

I suppose it could be argued that the 10 year lease offer to the administrator (poor though it was) could have been a quick fix for SISU as a get out strategy of sorts, perhaps giving more value to the club but would that be enough to receive offers over 20m or so?
That's why I question either SISU's insanity or their real determination to actually go through with building a new stadium.

oldskyblue58 · Aug 13, 2013

jimmyhillsfanclub said:
Just playing devils advocate....but Haskell may just buy the Ricoh & then sell it on to Sisu/Otium as he knows they are desperate for it......

....If I was a foreign businessman with absolutely no emotional attachment to the "soccer team" & city.....that's what I'd do.

...easy money for a middle man.

...just saying.

unlikely because right now i dont think the councils shares are for sale to any one. So any potential purchaser is only going to be able to get 50% of ACL plus maybe the development rights to the whole site. I would suspect that the Council would still have right of veto as would be the case in any private limited company where there are two share holders

James Smith · Aug 13, 2013

oldskyblue58 said:
unlikely because right now i dont think the councils shares are for sale to any one. So any potential purchaser is only going to be able to get 50% of ACL plus maybe the development rights to the whole site. I would suspect that the Council would still have right of veto as would be the case in any private limited company where there are two share holders

I can't see any problems in my opinion with the council holding on to their share until they are convinced that the buyer of the Higgs share is a fit and proper person/company to receive their share.

oldskyblue58 · Aug 13, 2013

is there the same potential for CCFC when it is sitting 34 miles away though with no way back unless the new owners of the Ricoh say so ? Think most of us are not taken in by the talk of building a new stadium to solve our finances. Not sure there will be a long line of bidders either for CCFC or the Ricoh. So what is the worth of the potential? and what is that worth without major investment to rebuild it

Any decent price assumes that CCFC have an in on the stadium in the first place - it might not be the case in which case the need for a good price is the sellers not the purchaser of CCFC. Would I pay £10m for CCFC if I were sitting already newly owning the stadium solely or jointly ? No i would let SISU bleed funds until they were desperate. Then pick it up for a nominal amount. To have bought in to the Ricoh I would need to be comfortable that the stadium had a good business without the football team and that there were development opportunities. The football club is likely to have a drain on that and therefore is not as valuable to me as a straight business proposition (forget being a fan and those emotions look at it coldly). I think i would have to view the potential of CCFC as the icing on the cake not the reason to do it.

Got to ask yourself if SISU cant get the stadium and someone else does what are the alternatives and what do they do to the value of CCFC ? None of them increase the value in my opinion. What would you be buying - a debt laden asset poor company that has a threadbare football team at the bottom of L1 that could go L2 if they dont get some good fortune, that has no home in 3 to 5 years and will owe £1m because of it. SISU might want more but I dont see anyone biting with any large sums - £5m max if that

Dhinsa's_Millions · Aug 13, 2013

oldskyblue58 said:
is there the same potential for CCFC when it is sitting 34 miles away though with no way back unless the new owners of the Ricoh say so ? Think most of us are not taken in by the talk of building a new stadium to solve our finances. Not sure there will be a long line of bidders either for CCFC or the Ricoh. So what is the worth of the potential? and what is that worth without major investment to rebuild it

Any decent price assumes that CCFC have an in on the stadium in the first place - it might not be the case in which case the need for a good price is the sellers not the purchaser of CCFC. Would I pay £10m for CCFC if I were sitting already newly owning the stadium solely or jointly ? No i would let SISU bleed funds until they were desperate. Then pick it up for a nominal amount. To have bought in to the Ricoh I would need to be comfortable that the stadium had a good business without the football team and that there were development opportunities. The football club is likely to have a drain on that and therefore is not as valuable to me as a straight business proposition (forget being a fan and those emotions look at it coldly). I think i would have to view the potential of CCFC as the icing on the cake not the reason to do it.

Got to ask yourself if SISU cant get the stadium and someone else does what are the alternatives and what do they do to the value of CCFC ? None of them increase the value in my opinion. What would you be buying - a debt laden asset poor company that has a threadbare football team at the bottom of L1 that could go L2 if they dont get some good fortune, that has no home in 3 to 5 years and will owe £1m because of it. SISU might want more but I dont see anyone biting with any large sums - £5m max if that

Totally agree with this OSB. The game of chicken with the club seems to be coming to a head. SISU need to realise they will cut their noses off if they don't sell up or come back to the Ricoh without ownership.

As soon as we get a couple of injuries or players get sold we are looking at League 2 irrespective of a points deduction.

Dhinsa's_Millions · Aug 13, 2013

lordsummerisle said:
Think that is similar to how it was structured when Sisu took over.

Didn't exactly work for Robinson that one, but I'll control my sorrow.

I do wonder what clauses were written in to the agreement with Robinson and how many still remain?

Godiva · Aug 13, 2013

oldskyblue58 said:
its a theory or two certainly.

Not saying any of it would happen but if the Ricoh was effectively blocked off from SISU why would you need to pay them much(anything) for the club?

SISU would be saddled with a club that was leaking money, no option but to seek another ground to rent or build, debt increasing, income reduced, a greatly reduced fan base, links to Coventry all but broken, losses every year, no real prospects of paying down the debts. Very little if any value in it.

Personally I wouldnt pay much for it, I certainly wouldnt help dig them out of a hole, and there wont be a long line of bidders for the club. Prospects are get out at any price you can get, continue investing knowing there will be no return or to liquidate

I think their best opportunity to sell was in the bidding round during administration. As that didn't happen I think they really are going to build a new stadium. It probably wouldn't require too much funding anyway as they should be able to recoup much of the total investment through selling off leases to new businesses at the site. Think how little actual funding was needed to build the RA.

If I was in sisu's shoes and determined to build a new stadium I would wish for someone like Haskell to buy the Higgs shares. And I would hope they could quickly attract another franchise sport as that would end any possiblities and dreams to reunite the club and the Ricoh. From sisu's POV that would be a dream scenarie as that would make planning permissions easier to obtain.

lordsummerisle · Aug 13, 2013

Dhinsa's_Millions said:
I do wonder what clauses were written in to the agreement with Robinson and how many still remain?

I'm fairly sure that he was supposed to pay the rent if the club defaulted on it?

Does anybody know if this has been pursued? ACL are very litigious, and would have thought they'd have been claiming that off him.

longjohnskyblue · Aug 13, 2013

As a guesstimate, considering Coventry city has virtually no assets (other than a mortgaged Ryton training ground), the only value in the club is previous seasons kit (zero retail value) and the remainder of the contracts of the current playing squad!

I would suggest a figure of £5-£10 million would be generous in its current incarnation, Had it got the keys to the ricoh arena it is a whole different ball game. The only thing of any potential value is the arena. Which is the only reason sisu are so keen to hang on to Coventry city, to claim preferential bidding status for the arena. However saying that, the mere fact they are so ruthless that they are prepared to cut off their nose to spite their face, the council should not budge an inch - end game is close

Paxman II · Aug 13, 2013

With all due respect OSB, while I agree with you up to a point your valuation of say 5m is what I would expect from an accountant. As an entrepreneur I'd then evaluate from that stance. To suggest a L1 club that could be L2 is one thing but tbf we are also just two season's away from the Premiership. My point is as I said before....the size of the fan base and the potential generation of money must be a big factor. We are not Yeovil after all. There would be a long line of bidders as demonstrated recently when the club was in the administrators admin process. If the football club was reunited with any stadium in the Coventry area the value would increase. I think the football club is worth a nominal amount currently as you say. however if they get part or some rights on the Ricoh and not just rent the pitch or even build this stadium they talk about then I see a value approaching something they can live with and exit the footballing world. Something we all want to see. The two sides primarily in this dispute have the power to bring that about. It seems we fans all caught up in this are the last people anyone cares about and that accusation is not simply aimed at just SISU. It's nothing short of a disgrace and there are ways out of it now.

chiefdave · Aug 13, 2013

longjohnskyblue said:
As a guesstimate, considering Coventry city has virtually no assets (other than a mortgaged Ryton training ground), the only value in the club is previous seasons kit (zero retail value) and the remainder of the contracts of the current playing squad!

I would suggest a figure of £5-£10 million would be generous in its current incarnation, Had it got the keys to the ricoh arena it is a whole different ball game. The only thing of any potential value is the arena. Which is the only reason sisu are so keen to hang on to Coventry city, to claim preferential bidding status for the arena. However saying that, the mere fact they are so ruthless that they are prepared to cut off their nose to spite their face, the council should not budge an inch - end game is close

any sale will be for the infamous £1 but the issue will be how much SISU want to write off the alleged £70m debt. They can say they aren't interested in selling all they want but there will be a figure (I would guess a certain % above the amount they have genuinely put in) which they would happily accept. they are after all only interested in making a profit and if they see a way to walk away making a profit surely they will.

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