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Because some on here bum XG (1 Viewer)

  • Thread starter Saddlebrains
  • Start date Jan 19, 2024
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clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2024
  • #71
MR and Adi looking at this thread

 
Reactions: Calista, bulko and stupot07

Frostie

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2024
  • #72
stupot07 said:
The league table is always the best barometer of where teams are.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
"The league table doesn't lie" is the biggest lie.
 
Reactions: Londonccfcfan

Evo1883

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2024
  • #73
clint van damme said:
MR and Adi looking at this thread

View attachment 33533
Click to expand...
I'd be very surprised if the club doesn't massively use data
 

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2024
  • #74
Evo1883 said:
I'd be very surprised if the club doesn't massively use data
Click to expand...

They'll use data far beyond XG, all clubs do now.
I'd be surprised if XG isn't quite rudimentary compared to some of the stuff they use.
 
Reactions: covcity4life, Hobo, Skyblueweeman and 1 other person

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2024
  • #75
Frostie said:
"The league table doesn't lie" is the biggest lie.
Click to expand...

It doesn't matter darling, you've had a lot on your plate recently, we'll try again soon, is the biggest lie
 
Reactions: covcity4life, Skyblueweeman, stupot07 and 1 other person

Frostie

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2024
  • #76
clint van damme said:
It doesn't matter darling, you've had a lot on your plate recently, we'll try again soon, is the biggest lie
Click to expand...

 
Reactions: covcity4life

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2024
  • #77
Frostie said:
View attachment 33536
Click to expand...

Cruel!
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2024
  • #78
Philosorapter said:
Let's get this afternoon's game out of the way first, scckmee

Edit:- I hope you know Scala
Click to expand...

I know enough Scala to know I don’t want to use it
 
Reactions: wingy
C

Cally Fedora

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2024
  • #79
For anyone furiously combing through the stats we won 2-1.
 
Reactions: Sick Boy, Skyblueweeman and stupot07

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2024
  • #80
Cally Fedora said:
For anyone furiously combing through the stats we won 2-1.
Click to expand...

Nerd. Did everyone have fun? That’s what matters.
 

JAM See

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2024
  • #81
Who's providing the software for these xG stats?

Fujitsu?
 
Reactions: Greggs and stupot07

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2024
  • #82
JAM See said:
Who's providing the software for these xG stats?

Fujitsu?
Click to expand...

There’s a reasonable point here actually which is that all the models afaik are proprietary and closed source so we can’t critique them other than the final output.

I reckon with modern vision processing software you could feed a game in and get what you need to build an open xG model. Not sure how copyright would work though.
 
T

Tomh111

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2024
  • #83
shmmeee said:
There’s a reasonable point here actually which is that all the models afaik are proprietary and closed source so we can’t critique them other than the final output.

I reckon with modern vision processing software you could feed a game in and get what you need to build an open xG model. Not sure how copyright would work though.
Click to expand...
I don't think the copyright would be the issue per se, because you would develop your own algorithm/model so would own that.

The interesting part is who owns the data, I.e. does it belong to the players, the club, the broadcaster etc.

I think there is even a legal case at the minute with a former player arguing that all his training data etc belongs to him and he should be paid for it.

Sent from my SM-S911B using Tapatalk
 

JAM See

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2024
  • #84
shmmeee said:
There’s a reasonable point here actually which is that all the models afaik are proprietary and closed source so we can’t critique them other than the final output.

I reckon with modern vision processing software you could feed a game in and get what you need to build an open xG model. Not sure how copyright would work though.
Click to expand...
Where would Simms's attempt that went out for a throw in sit in xG?

It was at the other end obviously, but it looked a decent chance to me from over 100 metres away.

It's the algorithm/state machine that I'd like access to.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2024
  • #85
Tomh111 said:
I don't think the copyright would be the issue per se, because you would develop your own algorithm/model so would own that.

The interesting part is who owns the data, I.e. does it belong to the players, the club, the broadcaster etc.

I think there is even a legal case at the minute with a former player arguing that all his training data etc belongs to him and he should be paid for it.

Sent from my SM-S911B using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Used to be with sports stats that the person collecting the data owned it, not sure about now. But does your licence for watching iFollow include extracting data? What’s the difference between a machine vision algo and Statto with a notepad? I suspect it would go to court cos everyone wants a piece of the pie. Cant imagine legally getting access to every game would be cheap. Some kind of app you could run on your PC while watching a stream that collected data would be amazing.
 

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2024
  • #86
JAM See said:
Where would Simms's attempt that went out for a throw in sit in xG?

It was at the other end obviously, but it looked a decent chance to me from over 100 metres away.

It's the algorithm/state machine that I'd like access to.
Click to expand...
Likewise, Sheff Wednesday’s xG would be skewed by their goal. It was a goal mouth scramble where 2 close range shots were saved/blocked before the goal.

Aside from that, they didn’t really create much. Neither did we - it was a pretty scrappy away win.
 

robbiekeane

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2024
  • #87
Evo1883 said:
Fucking mental , imagine bumming that
Click to expand...
Chart gave me a boner to be fair
 
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stupot07

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2024
  • #88
Mucca Mad Boys said:
Likewise, Sheff Wednesday’s xG would be skewed by their goal. It was a goal mouth scramble where 2 close range shots were saved/blocked before the goal.

Aside from that, they didn’t really create much. Neither did we - it was a pretty scrappy away win.
Click to expand...
If you scroll through this it shows the xG For all the shots

Our highest was Ben Sheafs second, 0.29 xG, our next highest was the Godden shot in the 76 minute which was 0.10 xG

For them they had

Liam Palmer 52 minute 0.18 xG
Ugbo 68 minute 0.11 xG
Windass 68 minute 0.23 xG
Musaba 68 minute o.56 xG
Cadamateri 72 minute 0.11 xG
Wilks 89 minutes 0.29 xG

Sheffield Wednesday vs Coventry City - live score, predicted lineups and H2H stats

Sheffield Wednesday vs Coventry City on Sat, Feb 15, 2025, 15:00 UTC. Check live results, H2H, match stats, lineups, player ratings, insights, team forms, shotmap, and highlights.
www.fotmob.com

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

Frostie

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2024
  • #89
stupot07 said:
If you scroll through this it shows the xG For all the shots

Our highest was Ben Sheafs second, 0.29 xG, our next highest was the Godden shot in the 76 minute which was 0.10 xG

For them they had

Liam Palmer 52 minute 0.18 xG
Ugbo 68 minute 0.11 xG
Windass 68 minute 0.23 xG
Musaba 68 minute o.56 xG
Cadamateri 72 minute 0.11 xG
Wilks 89 minutes 0.29 xG

Sheffield Wednesday vs Coventry City - live score, predicted lineups and H2H stats

Sheffield Wednesday vs Coventry City on Sat, Feb 15, 2025, 15:00 UTC. Check live results, H2H, match stats, lineups, player ratings, insights, team forms, shotmap, and highlights.
www.fotmob.com

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yeah it's great to look at but the thing to remember with this is it's just presenting you the raw data for individual shots (and not particularly reliable). To do a proper analysis on it you would need to apply some context.

For example, a proper xG model shouldn't count the Ugbo & Musaba shots. As they are in the same passage of play as the Windass goal it's not possible for all 3 to be scored.
 
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Calista

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2024
  • #90
Does xG take account of incidents such as the ball across the box that Godden missed by a whisker? He didn't get a toe to it so does it count for nothing? You could ask the same about all dangerous crosses / moves that don't quite result in a goal attempt. They might come far closer to scoring than a tame effort from an unlikely position that has an xG attached to it.
 
Reactions: Brighton Sky Blue and wingy
T

Tomh111

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 22, 2024
  • #91
Calista said:
Does xG take account of incidents such as the ball across the box that Godden missed by a whisker? He didn't get a toe to it so does it count for nothing? You could ask the same about all dangerous crosses / moves that don't quite result in a goal attempt. They might come far closer to scoring than a tame effort from an unlikely position that has an xG attached to it.
Click to expand...
No, it doesn't, which is why it's now being surpassed - it's considered the more basic of the advanced metrics.

You can now look at expected threat etc which would involve things like that.

For example, Southampton dominated the ball for large parts against us but offered zero threat outside of their goal. While we played without the ball and arguably offered more goal threat with it - so you can look at metrics on this.



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Nuskyblue

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 22, 2024
  • #92
Tomh111 said:
No, it doesn't, which is why it's now being surpassed - it's considered the more basic of the advanced metrics.

You can now look at expected threat etc which would involve things like that.

For example, Southampton dominated the ball for large parts against us but offered zero threat outside of their goal. While we played without the ball and arguably offered more goal threat with it - so you can look at metrics on this.



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Click to expand...
field tilt, is that a thing? I'm sure I saw sometihng about this a few years ago.
 
T

Tomh111

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 22, 2024
  • #93
Nuskyblue said:
field tilt, is that a thing? I'm sure I saw sometihng about this a few years ago.
Click to expand...
To an extent, field tilt is generally the % share of the match you spend in the opposite half - but it's that kind of thing.

We can also look at things like xA (expected assist) as a measure of final ball quality or attacking inputous.

Sent from my SM-S911B using Tapatalk
 

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 22, 2024
  • #94
stupot07 said:
If you scroll through this it shows the xG For all the shots

Our highest was Ben Sheafs second, 0.29 xG, our next highest was the Godden shot in the 76 minute which was 0.10 xG

For them they had

Liam Palmer 52 minute 0.18 xG
Ugbo 68 minute 0.11 xG
Windass 68 minute 0.23 xG
Musaba 68 minute o.56 xG
Cadamateri 72 minute 0.11 xG
Wilks 89 minutes 0.29 xG

Sheffield Wednesday vs Coventry City - live score, predicted lineups and H2H stats

Sheffield Wednesday vs Coventry City on Sat, Feb 15, 2025, 15:00 UTC. Check live results, H2H, match stats, lineups, player ratings, insights, team forms, shotmap, and highlights.
www.fotmob.com

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

A pretty even game than when all said and done. 0.9 xG for that one goal boosts that metric.

It is interesting that the xG shows we sat back after their goal.

Calista said:
Does xG take account of incidents such as the ball across the box that Godden missed by a whisker? He didn't get a toe to it so does it count for nothing? You could ask the same about all dangerous crosses / moves that don't quite result in a goal attempt. They might come far closer to scoring than a tame effort from an unlikely position that has an xG attached to it.
Click to expand...

xG doesn’t but there’s a metric called ‘expected threat’ xT which does measure this.

That does account for when teams are creating opportunities but don’t get shots off.
 
Last edited: Jan 22, 2024
Reactions: Calista

Robinshio

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 22, 2024
  • #95
xG ignores the quality of strikers - eg Harry Kane v Ellis simms - XG could be the same, but we know who will score more
 
T

Tomh111

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 22, 2024
  • #96
Robinshio said:
xG ignores the quality of strikers - eg Harry Kane v Ellis simms - XG could be the same, but we know who will score more
Click to expand...
Incorrect.

All players with the exception of Messi have regressed to the mean or advanced to the mean across the top 5 leagues - meaning xG remains accurate and largely there's little difference in finishing quality across the board.

Sent from my SM-S911B using Tapatalk
 

Calista

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 22, 2024
  • #97
Tomh111 said:
Incorrect.

All players with the exception of Messi have regressed to the mean or advanced to the mean across the top 5 leagues - meaning xG remains accurate and largely there's little difference in finishing quality across the board.
Click to expand...
? Are you saying that given a particular scoring opportunity, all players would be equally likely to stick it in the back of the net?
 

Torquay Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 22, 2024
  • #98
clint van damme said:
I tell you what I don't get, is how come white southerners started calling each other bruv.
Click to expand...
I agree, I've recently been working with a couple of black guys and taken to calling everyone bro or bruv. It's corny as fuck and has to stop
 

Skyblueweeman

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 22, 2024
  • #99
skybluecam said:
I can’t for the life of me understand why people actively dislike advanced stats like xg.

At this point I automatically assume it’s an intelligence issue.
Click to expand...
It's most definitely not.
 
Reactions: lordsummerisle

Skybluedownunder

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2024
  • #100
skybluecam said:
I can’t for the life of me understand why people actively dislike advanced stats like xg.

At this point I automatically assume it’s an intelligence issue.
Click to expand...

Seeming as people on here like making little singy songs…

Here’s one for the choir boys…

You can stick your fucking XG up your arse,
You can stick your fucking XG up your arse,
You can stick your fucking XG,
Stick your fucking XG,
Stick your fucking XG up your arse


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2024
  • #101
Skybluedownunder said:
Seeming as people on here like making little singy songs…

Here’s one for the choir boys…

You can stick your fucking XG up your arse,
You can stick your fucking XG up your arse,
You can stick your fucking XG,
Stick your fucking XG,
Stick your fucking XG up your arse


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Who are you singing that to?

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 
Reactions: BusyDoughnut

Philosoraptor

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2024
  • #102
shmmeee said:
You simply can’t compare chess to any sport on a statistical level. The number of possible game states in football is infinitely bigger than a chessboard.
Click to expand...

More or Less: Behind the Stats - Are there more possible games of chess than atoms in the universe? - BBC Sounds

We investigate how the vast possibilities in chess compare to the vastness of the universe
www.bbc.co.uk
 

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
  • Jan 23, 2024
  • #103
clint van damme said:
I tell you what I don't get, is how come white southerners started calling each other bruv.
Click to expand...
I lived in Deptford over 20 years ago and it was pretty common even then. It’s spread out to the Midlands these days as well, brav.
 

Martin180

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2024
  • #104
Sick Boy said:
I lived in Deptford over 20 years ago and it was pretty common even then. It’s spread out to the Midlands these days as well, brav.
Click to expand...
I hear you fam
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2024
  • #105
Philosorapter said:

More or Less: Behind the Stats - Are there more possible games of chess than atoms in the universe? - BBC Sounds

We investigate how the vast possibilities in chess compare to the vastness of the universe
www.bbc.co.uk
Click to expand...

Right, now multiple that by a million and square it and you’re still not close to the number of possible states in a football match.
 
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