Autos - Who Can & Who Can't (1 Viewer)

edgy · Mar 3, 2026

I'm trying to create a visualisation of who can mathmatically/theoretically (not realistically!) get into the top 2. It's is very basic and only considers number of points available to each team in isolation. It obviously doesnt take into account where teams play each other etc - I can't think of a way to show this.

Blue = Could reach 1st
Green = Could reach 2nd
Red = Eliminated

Probably a bit early for it, but I will update after each set of games and it should start to get interesting.

Ipad Boro · Mar 3, 2026

edgy said:
I'm trying to create a visualisation of who can mathmatically/theoretically (not realistically!) get into the top 2. It's is very basic and only considers number of points available to each team in isolation. It obviously doesnt take into account where teams play each other etc - I can't think of a way to show this.

Blue = Could reach 1st
Green = Could reach 2nd
Red = Eliminated

View attachment 49598

Probably a bit early for it, but I will update after each set of games and it should start to get interesting.

Have to admit I love these kind of tables.

It's certainly not too early, have to have this up when the different colours are right at the bottom to appreciate them rising up the league as time goes on.

matesx · Mar 3, 2026

Ipad Boro said:
Have to admit I love these kind of tables.

and me...

Ccfcisparks · Mar 3, 2026

We will get 91 points and miss out to Boro on 92 and Ipswich 94.

Londonccfcfan · Mar 3, 2026

I have a feeling GD is going to be cruicial. And if teams below us claw back GD..then goals scored.

Its going to be that tight.

We need not to kid ourselves that this is done.

Im fed up of hearing that its done! Far from it.

Sky Blue Harry H · Mar 3, 2026

Ccfcisparks said:
We will get 91 points and miss out to Boro on 92 and Ipswich 94.

https://giphy.com/xhIyLQXYMnReURiB89

AFCCOVENTRY · Mar 3, 2026

We need to maintain 2ppg till the end of the season. Which we are doing right now

Sky Blue Harry H · Mar 3, 2026

AFCCOVENTRY said:
We need to maintain 2ppg till the end of the season. Which we are doing right now

Was thinking about this last night, then thought about all the madness that's going on in the world, and had to remind myself it's only a game, in the big scheme of things - and I bloody love this club, and the sport.

Ccfcsj · Mar 3, 2026

I need to stop reading this forum. Every time I read a thread like this I start to get nervous - I'm just hoping my heart can take it

As they say - it's the hope that kills you

Earlsdon_Skyblue1 · Mar 3, 2026

Looking forward to seeing this light up green and red. As soon as possible.

edgy · Mar 3, 2026

I think this visualisation is a good way to ground yourselves. It shows that no matter how confident you are, it is not over till it's over.

rob9872 · Mar 3, 2026

Sky Blue Harry H said:
Was thinking about this last night, then thought about all the madness that's going on in the world, and had to remind myself it's only a game, in the big scheme of things - and I bloody love this club, and the sport.

40+ years ago the Human League were singing about the Lebanon and Marty McFly was already saying about the Iranians. Russia have always wanted to dominante their neighbours and Israel and Palestine have been at it before my grandad was 'peacekeeping' there in the 1940's.

I'm more concerned that it escalates into World War 3 before we get to celebrate winning the league after they stopped our L1 celebrations with Covid!

skybluelee · Mar 3, 2026

Ccfcisparks said:
We will get 91 points and miss out to Boro on 92 and Ipswich 94.

Ipswich are going to win 12 and draw 1 of their last 13....

And if that draw is against Middlesbrough that means they themselves are going to win 8 and draw 1 of their other 10.

SonofErnie · Mar 3, 2026

At this point in time 97 points is the target to guarantee promotion and anything below that relies on Ipswich or Boro dropping points outside of their game with each other.

Of course that won't be the ultimate total required but this team has proved before that it can deliver an exceptional run of results.

Ipad Boro · Mar 3, 2026

rob9872 said:
40+ years ago the Human League were singing about the Lebanon and Marty McFly was already saying about the Iranians. Russia have always wanted to dominante their neighbours and Israel and Palestine have been at it before my grandad was 'peacekeeping' there in the 1940's.

I'm more concerned that it escalates into World War 3 before we get to celebrate winning the league after they stopped our L1 celebrations with Covid!

Don't worry, from the wisdom of genuine real life football following experience of my Grandad, passed down through my father to me, I'm well aware that World Wars only ever kick off that big if Boro are installed as favourites to win the top league to put the kybosh on things.

Given we're not even in the Prem right now (and would have fat chance of clenching the title if we did go up) we're all perfectly safe in that regard.

rob9872 · Mar 3, 2026

edgy said:
I'm trying to create a visualisation of who can mathmatically/theoretically (not realistically!) get into the top 2. It's is very basic and only considers number of points available to each team in isolation. It obviously doesnt take into account where teams play each other etc - I can't think of a way to show this.

Blue = Could reach 1st
Green = Could reach 2nd
Red = Eliminated

View attachment 49598

Probably a bit early for it, but I will update after each set of games and it should start to get interesting.

So we're confirmed safe from relegation then

Sky Blue Pete · Mar 3, 2026

Opta is interesting

So statistically only 6 teams can win the title Wrexham upwards

And autos there’s just 8 down to Watford not including derby

That puts it into perspective for me

If you discount those with less than 1% chance you are left with

4 down to milwall for title

Top 5 down to hull for autos

StrettoBoy · Mar 3, 2026

The good news is that, even though it is only the beginning of March, we are already guaranteed to finish in the top twenty

In reality it will be higher than this because it doesn’t take account of the many games that the other teams will have to play against each other.

I reckon we are assured of a place in the top half of the table

Sky Blue Harry H · Mar 3, 2026

rob9872 said:
40+ years ago the Human League were singing about the Lebanon and Marty McFly was already saying about the Iranians. Russia have always wanted to dominante their neighbours and Israel and Palestine have been at it before my grandad was 'peacekeeping' there in the 1940's.

I'm more concerned that it escalates into World War 3 before we get to celebrate winning the league after they stopped our L1 celebrations with Covid!

I'm reminded that for my 21st birthday, my mate @Hutch11 bought me an Elton John album called ' Madman across the water' How prophetic was that album title?

Calista · Mar 3, 2026

Londonccfcfan said:
Im fed up of hearing that its done! Far from it.

Yep, around Christmas time there were loads on here eagerly spending the Premier League transfer budget, at the halfway point of the season! A month later it was all doom and gloom, and now it's back to assuming it's done and dusted again.

The reality is that although we are strong favourites to get over the line, there's stiil a lot of points needed and every game in this league is a battle.

JSL · Mar 3, 2026

Hull and Ipswich play each other tonight. A draw would be perfect

AFCCOVENTRY · Mar 3, 2026

skybluelee said:
Ipswich are going to win 12 and draw 1 of their last 13....

And if that draw is against Middlesbrough that means they themselves are going to win 8 and draw 1 of their other 10.

That’s a PPG of 2.84! Not happening

Sky Blue Pete · Mar 3, 2026

StrettoBoy said:
The good news is that, even though it is only the beginning of March, we are already guaranteed to finish in the top twenty

In reality it will be higher than this because it doesn’t take account of the many games that the other teams will have to play against each other.

I reckon we are assured of a place in the top half of the table

Genuinely top 6 is assured

Londonccfcfan · Mar 3, 2026

JSL said:
Hull and Ipswich play each other tonight. A draw would be perfect

First choice result tonight would be Hull win.

2nd choice ..a draw.

I see Ipswich as a huge threat. They lose tonight it will be massive.

Hull will still be 7 points behind us much inferior GD. And we have to play them. So a draw there would keep them at arms length.

Hoping for Ispwich loss

StrettoBoy · Mar 3, 2026

Sky Blue Pete said:
Genuinely top 6 is assured

I’m sure we are

In accordance with the opening post of this thread, I was just looking at the mathematics of the table not football probabilities.

If we don’t have another wobble we are going up

Sky Blue Pete · Mar 3, 2026

StrettoBoy said:
I’m sure we are

In accordance with the opening post of this thread, I was just looking at the mathematics of the table not football probabilities.

If we don’t have another wobble we are going up

Sorry not probabilities that’s statistically the case
Only 6 teams have more than 0% chance of winning automatic promotion

StrettoBoy · Mar 3, 2026

Sky Blue Pete said:
Sorry not probabilities that’s statistically the case
Only 6 teams have more than 0% chance of winning automatic promotion

Yes but that’s different to your comment on my post, which was that we are assured of the top six:

Sky Blue Pete said:
Genuinely top 6 is assured

Theoretically, which is what I was on about, we’re not. Blackburn in 20th could still overtake us if they win every remaining game and we don’t pick up a single point between now and the end of the season.

I’m not losing sleep over it!

Sky Blue Pete · Mar 3, 2026

StrettoBoy said:
Yes but that’s different to your comment on my post, which was that we are assured of the top six:

Theoretically, which is what I was on about, we’re not. Blackburn in 20th could still overtake us if they win every remaining game and we don’t pick up a single point between now and the end of the season.

I’m not losing sleep over it!

Ok so I don’t understand Opta then
If they say something has 0% or 100% statistical probability that means it’s definite surely

Ccfcisparks · Mar 3, 2026

Sky Blue Pete said:
Ok so I don’t understand Opta then
If they say something has 0% or 100% statistical probability that means it’s definite surely

It will never be bang on 0% for any of them whilst it is mathematically possible. Its just the percentage is so small, that when rounded to 2 decimal places it is closer to 0.

SonofErnie · Mar 3, 2026

If you're an optimist (I am), we're matching Burnley's trajectory from last season. After 30 games they had 58 points, after 35 it was 71 and they eventually finished on 100.

It's hard to see this team in it's current form and fitness losing more than a couple of games. It really is a case of keeping going as we are.

Jamesimus · Mar 3, 2026

edgy said:
I'm trying to create a visualisation of who can mathmatically/theoretically (not realistically!) get into the top 2. It's is very basic and only considers number of points available to each team in isolation. It obviously doesnt take into account where teams play each other etc - I can't think of a way to show this.

Blue = Could reach 1st
Green = Could reach 2nd
Red = Eliminated

View attachment 49600

Probably a bit early for it, but I will update after each set of games and it should start to get interesting.

Leicester leaving it late for their assault on the automatic places.

edgy · Mar 3, 2026

Jamesimus said:
Leicester leaving it late for their assault on the automatic places.

They'll be red and buried by Saturday 5pm.

StrettoBoy · Mar 3, 2026

Sky Blue Pete said:
Ok so I don’t understand Opta then
If they say something has 0% or 100% statistical probability that means it’s definite surely

You would think so, wouldn’t you but obviously not.

#liesdamnedliesandstatistics

ptr · Mar 3, 2026

JSL said:
Hull and Ipswich play each other tonight. A draw would be perfect

And a few players sent off. Possibly for things that require them to banned for a long period of time. Hoping Kipre bites someone, maybe even Jack Clarke.

sc1940 · Mar 3, 2026

JSL said:
Hull and Ipswich play each other tonight. A draw would be perfect

I wouldn't mind if Hull win, currently worst case we are 5 in front of Ipswich, but 8 in front of Hull if they win.

Autos - Who Can & Who Can't (1 Viewer)

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