Are you starting to really believe? (12 Viewers)

Saddlebrains said:

Thing is, we will be top after 16 games regardless

Dunno how that will affect the above, but I'm sure the stats look better on teams top after 16 games not 15

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@shmmeee did something on this. A team top after 20 games has a c. 85% chance of getting promoted automatically. The number after 15 games is still 65% or thereabouts.

A lot can happen but we’ve played a lot of teams who are currently in the top half (6/12, 3/5 top 6) and have beaten teams like Watford, Blackburn, QPR who are underperforming the xG table.

The hype is real and there’s no doubting it. I’m convinced nothing can stop us if we’re top after Blues away.

Mucca Mad Boys said:

@shmmeee did something on this. A team top after 20 games has a c. 85% chance of getting promoted automatically. The number after 15 games is still 65% or thereabouts.

A lot can happen but we’ve played a lot of teams who are currently in the top half (6/12, 3/5 top 6) and have beaten teams like Watford, Blackburn, QPR who are underperforming the xG table.

The hype is real and there’s no doubting it. I’m convinced nothing can stop us if we’re top after Blues away.

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I said a while ago it’s all downhill fixture wise after Feb too. Our “easy” start is mirrored by an “easy” finish.

The fact is the next ten games are some of the biggest in the clubs history. We could easily be unreachable or dragged back into the mire of teams stretching down to the bottom half. Lots of six pointers and well have a massive target on our back.

Evo1883 said:

Prem package ST holders if we go upView attachment 47086

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Has anyone ever laughed at the Premier League Packages? It’s always been a ridiculously good deal imo.

shmmeee said:

I said a while ago it’s all downhill fixture wise after Feb too. Our “easy” start is mirrored by an “easy” finish.

The fact is the next ten games are some of the biggest in the clubs history. We could easily be unreachable or dragged back into the mire of teams stretching down to the bottom half. Lots of six pointers and well have a massive target on our back.

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The best thing for us this season is a good FA Cup draw v a big Prem team and bow out quickly.

I’m optimistic about Feb, 3 home games against teams we have good records against and unless WBA and Sheff U turn things around, we should get points from.

Thinking ahead to rounding off Nov, we have a great opportunity to beat WBA at home and follow it up with a win against a (hopefully) manager-less Boro.

skybluecam said:

last 5 games we’ve not been performing at autos level

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Gamestate matters so much with these stats and are rarely taken into account.

Blackburn - probably our second worst performance this season - they pressed us very well and we looked rusty post break but eventually our quality got us the win and after the first goal it was never really in doubt.

Watford - Game was won after 8 minutes. Then 3-0 and vs 10-men we just took the foot off the gas completely. Yes they created a few openings but understandable given the state of the game (we’re not overcommitting and they’re throwing everything

Wrexham - missing 5 starters, Lampard didn’t adapt tactically at HT despite admitting he could see issues. Worst performance of the season (never need to see Jake Bidwell play for us again)

Sheffield United - Came for a point, time wasting from the 11th minute. Nick a goal from a set piece. Frank learns from Wrexham, tweaks the formation and we immediately get on top and go 2-1 up. Not a massively convincing final 15 but managed to hold on for the win.

Stoke - They set up for a point at home. Think we shaded the game overall though and xG supports that. Some smarter linkup play early doors and could’ve been a different game.

Overall, based on the balance of play I’d say the last 5 results have been justified. So you can’t really say you’ve played 5 games, deserved to win 4/5 and you’re not playing at autos level. Especially in a division with some much mediocrity as the champ has this year.

TomRad85 said:

Well we beat Blackburn despite not being at our best, Blackburn then went on a winning run including beating Leicester away.
Watford the game was over after 10 minutes whatever the stats say, they have been unbeaten since, including a creaming of Boro and draw away at Ipswich who everyone are still fretting over.
Wrexham we had half the team missing which unsurprisingly gave us our only defeat of the season.
Slaughtered the Blunts second half.
Won away at second in a game a lot of people thought we would lose and looked in control for all of it despite Robins' sour grapes.

I sure hope we have more shit runs of form like this.

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Ok Tom had already said what I posted above in a much more concise way. But nice to see someone agrees

TomRad85 said:

Well we beat Blackburn despite not being at our best, Blackburn then went on a winning run including beating Leicester away.
Watford the game was over after 10 minutes whatever the stats say, they have been unbeaten since, including a creaming of Boro and draw away at Ipswich who everyone are still fretting over.
Wrexham we had half the team missing which unsurprisingly gave us our only defeat of the season.
Slaughtered the Blunts second half.
Won away at second in a game a lot of people thought we would lose and looked in control for all of it despite Robins' sour grapes.

I sure hope we have more shit runs of form like this.

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Wrexham have only lost once in the last 10 games and that was by 1 goal to Stoke. They have taken 17 points from those games including from Leicester, Middlesbro, Birmingham, Charlton, and us. I'm convinced we wouldn't have lost that with our first choice defence.

Danceswithhorses said:

erm....80 points surely (34+(15*3)) + say 1 draw

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As Phil Collins would say when referring to BODMAS or PEMDAS (in yet another one of my up to date music references), no brackets required.

rob9872 said:

As Phil Collins would say when referring to BODMAS or PEMDAS (in yet another one of my up to date music references), no brackets required.

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You're right of course, but i was trying to simplify it as much as possible, because we're living in a land of confusion (ok that's Genesis !)

rob9872 said:

As Phil Collins would say when referring to BODMAS or PEMDAS (in yet another one of my up to date music references), no brackets required.

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Not sure what this means?

wingy said:

Not sure what this means?

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BODMAS - basically the rule for how to solve a written down mathematical question. You read left to right, but unless something is in brackets, then the multiplication or division gas precedent over the addition or subtraction:

Brackets
Orders
Division or Multiplication
Addition or Subtraction


Or if you knew that and meant my Phil Collins 'pun' then it was a play on the name of an album 'No Jacket Required'

wingy said:

Not sure what this means?

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BODMAS -brackets, order, division, multiplication, addition, subtraction - order of mathematical operations
Phil Collins album - No Jacket required...humorously altered to bracket(s)

rob9872 said:

BODMAS - basically the rule for how to solve a written down mathematical question. You read left to right, but unless something is in brackets, then the multiplication or division gas precedent over the addition or subtraction:

Brackets
Orders
Division or Multiplication
Addition or Subtraction


Or if you knew that and meant my Phil Collins 'pun' then it was a play on the name of an album 'No Jacket Required'

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Sorry get it now use to love a bit of integration differentiation back in the 80's.

rob9872 said:

I'm pleased you taught science and not maths

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Danceswithhorses said:

erm....that's 80 points surely (34+(15*3)) + say 1 draw

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Sweet Jesus