I have worked out that there are 81 Permutations involving the 5 clubs that could still make the play-offs this weekend (based on results alone and not scores).
In all 27 of the permutations where Coventry lose, we will not make the play offs irrespective of the other results.
In 24 of the 27 of permutations where Coventry win, we make the play offs irrespective of the other results. The other 3 Permutations involve Bristol and Milwall both winning (with any Blackburn result) where Milwall could theoretically prevent us from qualifying if they beat Burnley by more than our goal margin + 4 goals.
Of the 27 potential draw permutations,
Coventry miss out in 11, where -
• Bristol Win or Draw and one of or both of Milwall and/or Blackburn Win
• Bristol Lose and Both Milwall and Blackburn win
Coventry go through in 16, where -
• Milwall lose and Blackburn fail to win with any Bristol Result
• Milwall Draw and Blackburn Fail to win with any Bristol Result (Through on GD)
• Milwall Draw and Bristol Lose with any Blackburn Result (Through on GD)
• Bristol Lose and one of either Milwall or Blackburn win (Through on GD)
If you want to be super-positive, 22 of the 43 permutations where we qualify actually have us finishing in 5th. These being where -
• Bristol lose or draw and we win irrespective of other results
• Bristol lose and we draw and Blackburn and Milwall both fail to win
There is even a scenario where if Bristol lose and both ourselves and Milwall draw, there would be 3 teams tied for 5th place. If this happens, we would take 5th place on goal difference with the final spot being determined by how many goals Bristol lose by.
Obviously some results are more likely than others but the Championship is a funny league and any team can beat another on their day. The fact that we would be reliant on goal difference for many of these outcomes shows just how tight not winning on Saturday makes it.
In short, whilst Saturday is not a "Must Win", we should certainly not be prepared to settle for a draw. Doing so would mean that we had to rely on both Millwall and Blackburn dropping points or on Bristol losing and at least one of them not winning.
Drawing would also all but write off a 5th place finish with 18 of the 22 permutations where we finish 5th being reliant upon us winning.
I need to get out more!!
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In all 27 of the permutations where Coventry lose, we will not make the play offs irrespective of the other results.
In 24 of the 27 of permutations where Coventry win, we make the play offs irrespective of the other results. The other 3 Permutations involve Bristol and Milwall both winning (with any Blackburn result) where Milwall could theoretically prevent us from qualifying if they beat Burnley by more than our goal margin + 4 goals.
Of the 27 potential draw permutations,
Coventry miss out in 11, where -
• Bristol Win or Draw and one of or both of Milwall and/or Blackburn Win
• Bristol Lose and Both Milwall and Blackburn win
Coventry go through in 16, where -
• Milwall lose and Blackburn fail to win with any Bristol Result
• Milwall Draw and Blackburn Fail to win with any Bristol Result (Through on GD)
• Milwall Draw and Bristol Lose with any Blackburn Result (Through on GD)
• Bristol Lose and one of either Milwall or Blackburn win (Through on GD)
If you want to be super-positive, 22 of the 43 permutations where we qualify actually have us finishing in 5th. These being where -
• Bristol lose or draw and we win irrespective of other results
• Bristol lose and we draw and Blackburn and Milwall both fail to win
There is even a scenario where if Bristol lose and both ourselves and Milwall draw, there would be 3 teams tied for 5th place. If this happens, we would take 5th place on goal difference with the final spot being determined by how many goals Bristol lose by.
Obviously some results are more likely than others but the Championship is a funny league and any team can beat another on their day. The fact that we would be reliant on goal difference for many of these outcomes shows just how tight not winning on Saturday makes it.
In short, whilst Saturday is not a "Must Win", we should certainly not be prepared to settle for a draw. Doing so would mean that we had to rely on both Millwall and Blackburn dropping points or on Bristol losing and at least one of them not winning.
Drawing would also all but write off a 5th place finish with 18 of the 22 permutations where we finish 5th being reliant upon us winning.
I need to get out more!!
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