81 Permutations (1 Viewer)

[Snoogola]

I have worked out that there are 81 Permutations involving the 5 clubs that could still make the play-offs this weekend (based on results alone and not scores).

In all 27 of the permutations where Coventry lose, we will not make the play offs irrespective of the other results.

In 24 of the 27 of permutations where Coventry win, we make the play offs irrespective of the other results. The other 3 Permutations involve Bristol and Milwall both winning (with any Blackburn result) where Milwall could theoretically prevent us from qualifying if they beat Burnley by more than our goal margin + 4 goals.

Of the 27 potential draw permutations,

Coventry miss out in 11, where -
• Bristol Win or Draw and one of or both of Milwall and/or Blackburn Win
• Bristol Lose and Both Milwall and Blackburn win

Coventry go through in 16, where -
• Milwall lose and Blackburn fail to win with any Bristol Result
• Milwall Draw and Blackburn Fail to win with any Bristol Result (Through on GD)
• Milwall Draw and Bristol Lose with any Blackburn Result (Through on GD)
• Bristol Lose and one of either Milwall or Blackburn win (Through on GD)

If you want to be super-positive, 22 of the 43 permutations where we qualify actually have us finishing in 5th. These being where -
• Bristol lose or draw and we win irrespective of other results
• Bristol lose and we draw and Blackburn and Milwall both fail to win
There is even a scenario where if Bristol lose and both ourselves and Milwall draw, there would be 3 teams tied for 5th place. If this happens, we would take 5th place on goal difference with the final spot being determined by how many goals Bristol lose by.

Obviously some results are more likely than others but the Championship is a funny league and any team can beat another on their day. The fact that we would be reliant on goal difference for many of these outcomes shows just how tight not winning on Saturday makes it.

In short, whilst Saturday is not a "Must Win", we should certainly not be prepared to settle for a draw. Doing so would mean that we had to rely on both Millwall and Blackburn dropping points or on Bristol losing and at least one of them not winning.

Drawing would also all but write off a 5th place finish with 18 of the 22 permutations where we finish 5th being reliant upon us winning.

I need to get out more!!


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[Captain Dart]

I have worked out that there are 81 Permutations involving the 5 clubs that could still make the play-offs this weekend (based on results alone and not scores).

In all 27 of the permutations where Coventry lose, we will not make the play offs irrespective of the other results.

In 24 of the 27 of permutations where Coventry win, we make the play offs irrespective of the other results. The other 3 Permutations involve Bristol and Milwall both winning (with any Blackburn result) where Milwall could theoretically prevent us from qualifying if they beat Burnley by more than our goal margin + 4 goals.

Of the 27 potential draw permutations,

Coventry miss out in 11, where -
• Bristol Win or Draw and one of or both of Milwall and/or Blackburn Win
• Bristol Lose and Both Milwall and Blackburn win

Coventry go through in 16, where -
• Milwall lose and Blackburn fail to win with any Bristol Result
• Milwall Draw and Blackburn Fail to win with any Bristol Result (Through on GD)
• Milwall Draw and Bristol Lose with any Blackburn Result (Through on GD)
• Bristol Lose and one of either Milwall or Blackburn win (Through on GD)

If you want to be super-positive, 22 of the 43 permutations where we qualify actually have us finishing in 5th. These being where -
• Bristol lose or draw and we win irrespective of other results
• Bristol lose and we draw and Blackburn and Milwall both fail to win
There is even a scenario where if Bristol lose and both ourselves and Milwall draw, there would be 3 teams tied for 5th place. If this happens, we would take 5th place on goal difference with the final spot being determined by how many goals Bristol lose by.

Obviously some results are more likely than others but the Championship is a funny league and any team can beat another on their day. The fact that we would be reliant on goal difference for many of these outcomes shows just how tight not winning on Saturday makes it.

In short, whilst Saturday is not a "Must Win", we should certainly not be prepared to settle for a draw. Doing so would mean that we had to rely on both Millwall and Blackburn dropping points or on Bristol losing and at least one of them not winning.

Drawing would also all but write off a 5th place finish with 18 of the 22 permutations where we finish 5th being reliant upon us winning.

I need to get out more!!


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I never get past this is a must win, we do not under any circumstances want to rely on other results. You know I'm right.

 

[Domo]

 

[Balli001]

I never get past this is a must win, we do not under any circumstances want to rely on other results. You know I'm right.

So if all the other results go our way and we get a point are you forfeiting the playoffs?

 

[Covcraig@bury]

I have worked out that there are 81 Permutations involving the 5 clubs that could still make the play-offs this weekend (based on results alone and not scores).

In all 27 of the permutations where Coventry lose, we will not make the play offs irrespective of the other results.

In 24 of the 27 of permutations where Coventry win, we make the play offs irrespective of the other results. The other 3 Permutations involve Bristol and Milwall both winning (with any Blackburn result) where Milwall could theoretically prevent us from qualifying if they beat Burnley by more than our goal margin + 4 goals.

Of the 27 potential draw permutations,

Coventry miss out in 11, where -
• Bristol Win or Draw and one of or both of Milwall and/or Blackburn Win
• Bristol Lose and Both Milwall and Blackburn win

Coventry go through in 16, where -
• Milwall lose and Blackburn fail to win with any Bristol Result
• Milwall Draw and Blackburn Fail to win with any Bristol Result (Through on GD)
• Milwall Draw and Bristol Lose with any Blackburn Result (Through on GD)
• Bristol Lose and one of either Milwall or Blackburn win (Through on GD)

If you want to be super-positive, 22 of the 43 permutations where we qualify actually have us finishing in 5th. These being where -
• Bristol lose or draw and we win irrespective of other results
• Bristol lose and we draw and Blackburn and Milwall both fail to win
There is even a scenario where if Bristol lose and both ourselves and Milwall draw, there would be 3 teams tied for 5th place. If this happens, we would take 5th place on goal difference with the final spot being determined by how many goals Bristol lose by.

Obviously some results are more likely than others but the Championship is a funny league and any team can beat another on their day. The fact that we would be reliant on goal difference for many of these outcomes shows just how tight not winning on Saturday makes it.

In short, whilst Saturday is not a "Must Win", we should certainly not be prepared to settle for a draw. Doing so would mean that we had to rely on both Millwall and Blackburn dropping points or on Bristol losing and at least one of them not winning.

Drawing would also all but write off a 5th place finish with 18 of the 22 permutations where we finish 5th being reliant upon us winning.

I need to get out more!!


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Are you completely sure, I don’t want to build my hopes up

 

[SonofErnie]

I have worked out that there are 81 Permutations involving the 5 clubs that could still make the play-offs this weekend (based on results alone and not scores).

In all 27 of the permutations where Coventry lose, we will not make the play offs irrespective of the other results.

In 24 of the 27 of permutations where Coventry win, we make the play offs irrespective of the other results. The other 3 Permutations involve Bristol and Milwall both winning (with any Blackburn result) where Milwall could theoretically prevent us from qualifying if they beat Burnley by more than our goal margin + 4 goals.

Of the 27 potential draw permutations,

Coventry miss out in 11, where -
• Bristol Win or Draw and one of or both of Milwall and/or Blackburn Win
• Bristol Lose and Both Milwall and Blackburn win

Coventry go through in 16, where -
• Milwall lose and Blackburn fail to win with any Bristol Result
• Milwall Draw and Blackburn Fail to win with any Bristol Result (Through on GD)
• Milwall Draw and Bristol Lose with any Blackburn Result (Through on GD)
• Bristol Lose and one of either Milwall or Blackburn win (Through on GD)

If you want to be super-positive, 22 of the 43 permutations where we qualify actually have us finishing in 5th. These being where -
• Bristol lose or draw and we win irrespective of other results
• Bristol lose and we draw and Blackburn and Milwall both fail to win
There is even a scenario where if Bristol lose and both ourselves and Milwall draw, there would be 3 teams tied for 5th place. If this happens, we would take 5th place on goal difference with the final spot being determined by how many goals Bristol lose by.

Obviously some results are more likely than others but the Championship is a funny league and any team can beat another on their day. The fact that we would be reliant on goal difference for many of these outcomes shows just how tight not winning on Saturday makes it.

In short, whilst Saturday is not a "Must Win", we should certainly not be prepared to settle for a draw. Doing so would mean that we had to rely on both Millwall and Blackburn dropping points or on Bristol losing and at least one of them not winning.

Drawing would also all but write off a 5th place finish with 18 of the 22 permutations where we finish 5th being reliant upon us winning.

I need to get out more!!


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Based on the number of permutations you are suggesting that in 40 of them we make the play offs, which is a fraction under 50%.

You now need to go away and work out the probability of each scenario and come back with an overall probability of us reaching them


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[stevefloyd]

If we get in the play offs I really don't think we are strong enough to make it through having said that if we should make it I think it will be a torrid season in the prem, especially with our defence, midfield, strikers and of course the unmentionable at the back unless Doug attracts a billionaire Arab or something

 

[robbiethemole]

We win, we're in!!!! thats all we need to know really

 

[Saddlebrains]

Im not reading all that

Sorry it happened / congratulations though

 

[blunted]

81 permutations but the bitch ain't one.

 

[fatso]

I have worked out that there are 81 Permutations involving the 5 clubs that could still make the play-offs this weekend (based on results alone and not scores).

In all 27 of the permutations where Coventry lose, we will not make the play offs irrespective of the other results.

In 24 of the 27 of permutations where Coventry win, we make the play offs irrespective of the other results. The other 3 Permutations involve Bristol and Milwall both winning (with any Blackburn result) where Milwall could theoretically prevent us from qualifying if they beat Burnley by more than our goal margin + 4 goals.

Of the 27 potential draw permutations,

Coventry miss out in 11, where -
• Bristol Win or Draw and one of or both of Milwall and/or Blackburn Win
• Bristol Lose and Both Milwall and Blackburn win

Coventry go through in 16, where -
• Milwall lose and Blackburn fail to win with any Bristol Result
• Milwall Draw and Blackburn Fail to win with any Bristol Result (Through on GD)
• Milwall Draw and Bristol Lose with any Blackburn Result (Through on GD)
• Bristol Lose and one of either Milwall or Blackburn win (Through on GD)

If you want to be super-positive, 22 of the 43 permutations where we qualify actually have us finishing in 5th. These being where -
• Bristol lose or draw and we win irrespective of other results
• Bristol lose and we draw and Blackburn and Milwall both fail to win
There is even a scenario where if Bristol lose and both ourselves and Milwall draw, there would be 3 teams tied for 5th place. If this happens, we would take 5th place on goal difference with the final spot being determined by how many goals Bristol lose by.

Obviously some results are more likely than others but the Championship is a funny league and any team can beat another on their day. The fact that we would be reliant on goal difference for many of these outcomes shows just how tight not winning on Saturday makes it.

In short, whilst Saturday is not a "Must Win", we should certainly not be prepared to settle for a draw. Doing so would mean that we had to rely on both Millwall and Blackburn dropping points or on Bristol losing and at least one of them not winning.

Drawing would also all but write off a 5th place finish with 18 of the 22 permutations where we finish 5th being reliant upon us winning.

I need to get out more!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

.

 

[JSL]

Middlesborough's permutations are much less. They must win and Millwall lose and Blackburm lose or draw. I prefer the complicated version

 

[fatso]

To simplify it for us mortals.
If we lose, then (obviously) Middlesbrough win and take 6th spot, and we miss out.

If we draw, then we need Millwall and Blackburn not to win. If either or both of them win, then we miss out.

 

[torchomatic]

Middlesborough's permutations are much less. They must win and Millwall lose and Blackburm lose or draw. I prefer the complicated version

I'd much rather be in our position than Millwall or Boro. Wouldn't say no to being in Bristol's position though.

 

[Alkhen]

Did have a mild anxiety moment when I wondered if news of Leeds battering Plymouth in the first half filters through and Burnley just cave in and ship a bunch against Millwall

 

[JSL]

Plymouth are difficult to beat so Leeds have no chance of that

 

[DT-R]

I never get past this is a must win, we do not under any circumstances want to rely on other results. You know I'm right.

I agree. Cannot fathom the 'this isn't a must win game' people. Fully expecting Burnley to win. They're the same people saying it's not a shit quality league this season, but unpredictable. Now which is it? We can draw as Burnley are guaranteed a win? Or the league is unpredictable and anyone can beat anyone?
A Burnley win is far from secure, especially when Millwall will be desperate for the win aswell. Not like either team are on the beach. Amd all the people saying "but Burnley haven't lost at home all season", so they're about due one then aren't they? Fuck relying on other results. A win and 3 points is A MUST! Anything less and what's the point in even being in the play offs? If we can't go all out to win on Saturday, then we may aswell forfeit the play offs and let the team in 7th have it by default and go on holiday early.

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[DT-R]

So if all the other results go our way and we get a point are you forfeiting the playoffs?

IF....... IF all other results go our way. Why rely on another result when your fate is in your hands?
Might aswell jump off a bridge or play on the M6, because a paramedic MIGHT be able to save your life.

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[DT-R]

We win, we're in!!!! thats all we need to know really

But it's not a "must win game"

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[Lamps]

I'd much rather be in our position than Millwall or Boro. Wouldn't say no to being in Bristol's position though.

It's a close call.

Bristol City have Preston who are playing for their survival. We've seen the last couple of games how that can go. We have Middlesbrough at home.

 

[torchomatic]

It's a close call.

Bristol City have Preston who are playing for their survival. We've seen the last couple of games how that can go. We have Middlesbrough at home.

True. I actually meant being 5th with a point more.

Still rather play Boro than PNE.

 

[Lamps]

True. I actually meant being 5th with a point more.

Still rather play Boro than PNE.

I'd rather be in 1st and aiming to win our last game. But beggars can't be choosers

 

[Snoogola]

If we get in the play offs I really don't think we are strong enough to make it through having said that if we should make it I think it will be a torrid season in the prem, especially with our defence, midfield, strikers and of course the unmentionable at the back unless Doug attracts a billionaire Arab or something

I’d like to think that Doug would put at least some of the additional 100 Million quid we’d get towards strengthening the squad and building a Premier League Deck.

With regard making it through the play offs, if we finish 5th, I’d fancy us against an out of form Sunderland.

After that it’s one game of footy and anything can happen.


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[Razzle Dazzle Dean Gordon]

We just need to beat Middlesbrough and then everyone can chill the fuck out for 5 minutes before we start the whole cycle again ahead of the play-off games.

 

[Johhny Blue]

I have worked out that there are 81 permutations

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Can you do next season (premier and championship) if it’s not too much trouble?

 

[Otis]

I agree. Cannot fathom the 'this isn't a must win game' people. Fully expecting Burnley to win. They're the same people saying it's not a shit quality league this season, but unpredictable. Now which is it? We can draw as Burnley are guaranteed a win? Or the league is unpredictable and anyone can beat anyone?
A Burnley win is far from secure, especially when Millwall will be desperate for the win aswell. Not like either team are on the beach. Amd all the people saying "but Burnley haven't lost at home all season", so they're about due one then aren't they? Fuck relying on other results. A win and 3 points is A MUST! Anything less and what's the point in even being in the play offs? If we can't go all out to win on Saturday, then we may aswell forfeit the play offs and let the team in 7th have it by default and go on holiday early.

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Who are the "this isn't a must win people? "

This must win stuff is a nonsense and I will tell you why. It's a nonsense, because if you look back through the match threads, every game has been described as a must win for weeks on end now.



If we had won all those "must win" games we would have been confirmed as champions a couple of weeks ago.

This is not a must win. We can draw and still progress, under a number of scenarios.

 

[itsabuzzard]

I agree. Cannot fathom the 'this isn't a must win game' people. Fully expecting Burnley to win. They're the same people saying it's not a shit quality league this season, but unpredictable. Now which is it? We can draw as Burnley are guaranteed a win? Or the league is unpredictable and anyone can beat anyone?
A Burnley win is far from secure, especially when Millwall will be desperate for the win aswell. Not like either team are on the beach. Amd all the people saying "but Burnley haven't lost at home all season", so they're about due one then aren't they? Fuck relying on other results. A win and 3 points is A MUST! Anything less and what's the point in even being in the play offs? If we can't go all out to win on Saturday, then we may aswell forfeit the play offs and let the team in 7th have it by default and go on holiday early.

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Then you don't understand the meaning of "must".

 

[Gosb]

Then you don't understand the meaning of "must".

must is a periodic condition in male elephants characterised by aggressive behaviour and accompanied by a large rise in reproductive hormones.
So likely to be a problem after the match.

 

[quinn1971]

id def take “ it’s a must win“ over “ “maybe a point will be enough “ come out fired up like sunderland game, surely that‘s What they’ll be preparing them for ?

 

[tom88]

Just win the game you bastards

 

[mmttww]

81 permutations but the bitch ain't one.

I only checked the thread to see if someone had done this and it's on page one. Faith in the forum restored.

 

[mmttww]

Just win the game you bastards

Basically my thoughts on it. Just don't be Tw*ts, lads.