6 pointers (1 Viewer)

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Sky Blues

Sky Blues

Active Member
I've been looking at the bottom of the table and the bottom 6 teams have 7 games against each other. We have 3, Pompey have 3, and the others a pair each. That suggests us and Pompey have the most to gain/lose from these fixtures.
Let's assume, for the sake of argument, the home team wins each of these fixtures then Forest can get still - potentially - get 18 of 18 points. Us, Donny and Bristol can get 15 of 18 and Pompey 12. I'm sure there's a more mathematical way of working the implications of 6 pointers, but I'm not a statistician.
While the results may not turn out like that, what it suggests to me is today's results mean Forest with their 2 home 6 pointers are looking good to escape and Millwall with their 2 away 6 pointers (us and Pompey) are catchable. It would be great to drag another team into the business end of this fight.
The round of fixtures after the next ones look crucial. We've got Bristol away, Millwall goes to Pompey and Forest go to Peterborough, who are probably safe but we could potentially catch them if us and Forest both beat them as their last 4 are Leeds, Soton, Watford and Derby.

Final 6 games for the bottom 6:
Millwall: Hull, Pompey, Leicester, Coventry, Ipswich, Blackpool
Forest: Bristol, Posh, Blackpool, Reading, Hull, Pompey
Sky Blues: Posh, Bristol, Burnley, Millwall, Donny, Soton
Bristol: Forest, Coventry, Brum, Hammers, Barnsley, Burnley
Portsmouth: Soton, Millwall, Donny, Palace, Derby, Forest
Doncaster: Leicester, Burnley, Pompey, Boro, Coventry, Ipswich
 
covcity4life

covcity4life

Well-Known Member
bristol have forest then us,if they dont win either they will prob lose next two to brum and west ham

i think a win at home vs donny will clinch it for us
 
Sky Blues

Sky Blues

Active Member
On the other hand, if they win both of those they have Barnsley and Burnley as their last two games, who are bottom and fifth from bottom of the form league at present - though Bristol themselves are third from bottom of that particular table themselves...
 
Sky Blues

Sky Blues

Active Member
Your point made me wonder if there is an objective way of judging the releative strength of the remaining fixtures for the bottom 6.
This is full of holes, but taking the current form guide here http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/oform.html I made a very rough calculation based on the idea that a team that is performing better than their rival is more likely to win the fixture.
I arbitrarily chose a 1 point per game (ppg) spread as the basis for judging draws, so a team functioning at 1ppg would draw with a team performing 1.25ppg and lose to one performing at 1.5ppg (and draw with a team performing at 0.75ppg and win against a team operating at 0.5ppg).
I was slightly surprised to discover that this suggests we have the easiest run in by a stretch over everyone other than Forest, based on current form. Using this method we would claim 13 from 18 available points, Forest 11, Millwall 6, Bristol 3, Portsmouth 3, and Doncaster 2.
That would leave the current bottom six with a final points tally of:
Forest 54 wddlww
Coventry 51 wwwdwl
Millwall 47 wdddll
Bristol 40 lldldl
Portmouth 36 ldddll
Doncaster 34 lddlll
As I say, this is full of holes (such as taking no account of home and away games, some totally arbritary starting points etc) and I would be amazed to see a gap between 3rd from bottom and 4th from bottom that large at the end of the season.
But maybe it shines a little light on the relative strength of the remaining fixtures based on current form? :thinking about:
 
D

dongonzalos

Well-Known Member
Sky Blues said:
Your point made me wonder if there is an objective way of judging the releative strength of the remaining fixtures for the bottom 6.
This is full of holes, but taking the current form guide here http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/oform.html I made a very rough calculation based on the idea that a team that is performing better than their rival is more likely to win the fixture.
I arbitrarily chose a 1 point per game (ppg) spread as the basis for judging draws, so a team functioning at 1ppg would draw with a team performing 1.25ppg and lose to one performing at 1.5ppg (and draw with a team performing at 0.75ppg and win against a team operating at 0.5ppg).
I was slightly surprised to discover that this suggests we have the easiest run in by a stretch over everyone other than Forest, based on current form. Using this method we would claim 13 from 18 available points, Forest 11, Millwall 6, Bristol 3, Portsmouth 3, and Doncaster 2.
That would leave the current bottom six with a final points tally of:
Forest 54 wddlww
Coventry 51 wwwdwl
Millwall 47 wdddll
Bristol 40 lldldl
Portmouth 36 ldddll
Doncaster 34 lddlll
As I say, this is full of holes (such as taking no account of home and away games, some totally arbritary starting points etc) and I would be amazed to see a gap between 3rd from bottom and 4th from bottom that large at the end of the season.
But maybe it shines a little light on the relative strength of the remaining fixtures based on current form? :thinking about:
Click to expand...

Deep, now would you mind giving me your opinion on the big bang theory, when you actually think it happened and at what speed? :thinking about:
 
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