Ricketts
Well-Known Member
We can afford to draw or even lose one of those Sunderland games. Remember Notts County?
We can afford to draw or even lose one of those Sunderland games. Remember Notts County?Sorry it's 6 games to go.
Plymouth - W
Luton - W
Boro - W
Sunderland - W
Sunderland - W
Sheff Utd - W
Why are some people talking as if the Boro match is next up - does my head in
I don't know if anyone else has made this point, but the rather strange situation we find ourselves in is that if we get 5 points from our last 3 games then we are assured of a play-off spot but if we get 6 then we aren't.
5 points means that we have at least drawn with Middlesbrough so the maximum they can get is 7 so 5 is enough for us (4 if we've beaten them).
6 points means that Middlesbrough may have beaten us so even if we get 6 more they can get ahead of us on goal difference by winning their other 2 games.
QED
Leeds might be promoted on monday
It obviously isn’t. The context I’m putting forward is that even if we fall over on Monday and next weekend, we still have the insurance policy of playing Boro at home. Which puts us in a strong position.
That was me who made that earlier.I don't know if anyone else has made this point, but the rather strange situation we find ourselves in is that if we get 5 points from our last 3 games then we are assured of a play-off spot but if we get 6 then we aren't.
5 points means that we have at least drawn with Middlesbrough so the maximum they can get is 7 so 5 is enough for us (4 if we've beaten them).
6 points means that Middlesbrough may have beaten us so even if we get 6 more they can get ahead of us on goal difference by winning their other 2 games.
QED
It may not matter though. We all can see the permutations, which makes the confidence of some a little unnerving.
Us losing tomorrow and Boro beating Wednesday isn't all that unlikely. That's puts us in a position where a defeat at Luton could be the end of the road. We've all watched football long enough to know there are bound to be twists and turns.
Of course, we get a result tomorrow and that outcome goes out the window. It's all very tight though and forgive me for catatophising, because it just wouldn't surprise me, so preparing myself mentally
Does that include teams IN the red?Forget about all these permutations - the psychic octopus has confirmed that no team in red will be promoted from the Championship this season. You heard it hear first.
Well spotted! Great Minds and all that.....That was me who made that earlier.
Interest mathematical quirk
we’ll Beat Plymouth and Luton, then a point against mboro, will get us 5th,
Psychic octopus doesn’t deal in financials, that would be ridiculous.Does that include teams IN the red?
That just isn’t a likely scenario and even 2 losses wouldn’t leave us dead and buried unless Boro are 3 points ahead of us and 9+ GD ahead of us on the final day. A bookmaker would give you sound odds for that.
For us, there’s one ‘must win’ match remaining: Boro and that’s it. Obviously you’d want to win the next two but it still comes to the final day if Boro also win their next two.
The odds of all 3 teams (Bristol, Boro and ourselves) winning the next 2 is slim. Teams will drop points and we’re in a position where Boro are chasing us and play us away on the final day. Where we’ve been almost faultless since Lampard took over so again, the statistical models will heavily favour us finishing in Top 6. It’s not gospel, but that is the most likely outcome.
If both Boro and ourselves go 6 points from the next two, the likely outcome is that a draw secures both teams qualifying for the playoffs at Bristols expense.
I agree that the odds are in our favour, no doubting that. I'm simply stating the worst case here, that Boro beat Wednesday and Norwich and we lose our next two, it would be over. They'd have a minimum +8 GD, likely higher. There would be virtually no prospect of overtaking them. Of course, this takes 4 results to go against us, not even counting Bristol City, so it is unlikely, I don't think anyone is arguing that point, just not sure where, if this did happen, the 'it still goes to the last day' comes from. It wouldn't in any realistic sense.
No - because we'd be 6 points ahead of them, going into our last game against them!!I did think about that possibility!
We could win the next 2 and unless we have a favourable GD swing, Boro could afford to get 3 points out of the next 2 if they beat us.
No - because we'd be 6 points ahead of them, going into our last game against them!!
Who knows which Wednesday team will turn up.bristol city could guarantee a play off spot today if they win and mboro lose, not sure if that’s good for us or bad. We’ll win today so maybe a good thing ? Would put 6 points between us and 7th, but can’t see mboro losing at sheff weds
Probably the one whose manager is on his way out, has told half the players they aren't good enough for the championship who also haven't been paid on time!.....Who knows which Wednesday team will turn up.
They’re on an awful run, think worst case for mboro it’s a draw, we‘ll win so that’s a 5 point gap with 2 to go, funny Game, can’t see mboro not winning but some of our fans would take a point against PlymouthWho knows which Wednesday team will turn up.
Sometimes though thats the games that suprise you, teams with nothing to play for decide to have a go, I’d still prefer Plymouth today than sheff wedsProbably the one whose manager is on his way out, has told half the players they aren't good enough for the championship who also haven't been paid on time!.....
Players choice of footwear today - flip-flops!
There's no such thing as an easy game unless you're playing Sheffield Wednesday.
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