AOM
Well-Known Member
We should smash them, but it's not a guarantee.
They haven't been getting beaten badly recently, and it took Ipswich 78 minutes to get a goal against them
Even I think we beat Wednesday at a canter.
That's my concern too. They have found a way to limit damage lately, and sods law is that the tide changes at least once for them before the end of the season and they eventually get a win against someone.We should smash them, but it's not a guarantee.
They haven't been getting beaten badly recently, and it took Ipswich 78 minutes to get a goal against them
I'm not sure what you're responding to. My position is that I think we'll win the league with 2 more wins and finish 2nd with just 1 more win.I'm not sure that is true. If we take the 3 teams across their last 7 matches, 8 for Ipswich and were to say they got the same points again, then
Boro 2w, 4d, 1l = 10 points Total 81 points
Ipswich 4w, 3d, 1l = 15 points Total 84 points
Millwall 4w, 1d, 2l = 13 points Total 82 points
I know there is nothing scientific about that, but, they all have slipped up against so called lower teams lately, so who is to say it isnt going to happen again
Both Middlesbrough and Millwall have to keep winning. Next game they play each other. A draw would be bad for both. Both can only have 1 bad result each if we continue to win.I know the scenario that would need to unfold. But those things happening as you describe is much less likely than them not happening.
That's my concern too. They have found a way to limit damage lately, and sods law is that the tide changes at least once for them before the end of the season and they eventually get a win against someone.
Agreed. This doesn't change the fact that us winning 3 on the spin plus other results going our way sufficiently to seal it v Sheff W is less likely than likely to happen.Both Middlesbrough and Millwall have to keep winning. Next game they play each other. A draw would be bad for both. Both can only have 1 bad result each if we continue to win.
Fixed it for youI was being a bit tongue in cheek saying we'll lose to them, but it wouldn't be OLD Coventry if we didn't drop points to a team who were relegated months ago, have negative points and are -55 in goal difference!
Only putting out about your response in saying the scenario is much less likely than it happening, whereas I was saying the likes of Boro and Ipswich have been dropping points against so called easy teams, so it could happen, only couldI'm not sure what you're responding to. My position is that I think we'll win the league with 2 more wins and finish 2nd with just 1 more win.
I also think its unlikely that it will be mathematically done by Sheff W.
I suppose a difference of opinion. Not a problemAgreed. This doesn't change the fact that us winning 3 on the spin plus other results going our way sufficiently to seal it v Sheff W is less likely than likely to happen.
All that plus the small matter of us winning three on the spin. Obviously it can happen (hopefully it does) but surely you can concede that statistically its more likely that it doesn't get secured at the Sheff W game?!I suppose a difference of opinion. Not a problem
But if their next game is a draw they would both have to win their next two. Middlesbrough have only won 2 out of their last 8 games since we beat them.
Millwall have been flying but have only got 1 point from their last 2 games. Same again and they're gone before the Sheffield Wednesday game if we win our next 2.
Who on earth has said that?!We're not going to lose against Sheffield Wednesday ffs. They've gone 35 odd games without winning.
The question was if we won the next 2. Then we have Sheffield Wednesday.All that plus the small matter of us winning three on the spin. Obviously it can happen (hopefully it does) but surely you can concede that statistically its more likely that it doesn't get secured at the Sheff W game?!
Teams are probably now pretty complacent against them, but as long as we need points to go up (which we will), we’ll be taking the game very seriously and if anything be more up for it than usual.That's my concern too. They have found a way to limit damage lately, and sods law is that the tide changes at least once for them before the end of the season and they eventually get a win against someone.
I can’t stop doing spreadsheets!!!
This one shows a run down of matches in order to the end of the season. I’ve had a go at predicting results and shows a running total after each game of points and maximum achievable points based on my guesses.
My assumption is 7 points from next 4 games.
That means it could come down to the Ipswich Boro game or Pompey game to seal the promotion.
Of course purely hypothetical!!!
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