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That's where the wash your hands etc thing comes in.

Hi gif guy

Hopefully phe have got it right. There will be lots of cases, you will see steeper rises and sadly people will die but there are good signs we can stop it falling off a cliff like Italy. If not then we lock down. The issue with lock downs and forced interventions is public fatigue in them...

That's cool I've really noticed you before so we have something in common.

No they said up to 20% of at 1 time but again this top 0lanning modelling and not the expected outcome

No it doesn't mate, China may have up to 200 million infected if the current medical view is correct. We would have to jubilee fro 10k to around 1,300,000 cases to do that.

This is a case of them being too truthful

It's really not

As Jenny Harries the deputy chief medical officer today said that is topline planing and a worse case scenario the have modelled. To get that everything will need to go wrong. Watch her question session on the iplayer. It's quite informative. You will see a steep rise in cases which is...

Where's the evidence we are heading for an italy type situation. The very plan is to stop that

Yeah it's not working as it has spread to much larger places and their infection rate and mortality rate is skyrocketing. Their mortality rate is 3 percentage as their health service can't cope.

No they won't as it ended up with the Italian health service crumbling.

I asked who was saying it was looking like it would get that bad. It would take a spike like italy to knock the NHS on its arse but that is why the plan is to flatten the peak meaning while it maybe around for longer it doesn't all happen at once.

Ditto

No one does in this as most will not even know they have it. If you remember the 2009 pandemic the NHS stopped even trying to test. You answer a few questions online and sent someone else to pick up your tamiflu

Which experts are these out of interest? Most I've seen still seem confident the uk can delay and flatten the peak. There are a few outliers but as the deputy cmo Jenny Harries said they are not in a position to know most of the current data.

It'll be bad but the planning seems to be working to delay and flatten the peak

So in reality while it's horrendous what is happening in the hospitals of say Lombardy it would be worse if he centre if the outbreak was a southern region?

You'll be fine as long as you wear a full 19th century diving suit

I was led to believe it varies by region with the richer northern regions having better health care.