Can we exit administration? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter OyJimmy
- Start date
NorthernWisdom
Well-Known Member
The choice is Otium or liquidation.
DazzleTommyDazzle
Well-Known Member
Reasoning?
Are you suggesting that SISU would prefer to liquidate rather than agree another bid that might give them "a couple of million"?
NorthernWisdom
Well-Known Member
The administrator saying that is the choice.
NorthernWisdom
Well-Known Member
And in a wider sense, yes they would.
You're all underestimating this end game if you think liquidation isn't on the cards. this *is* their endgame, this *is* their hedge, where they need to package the club for sale, and to get any kind of worthwhile return they need that package to be put together at less than the anticipated sale price.
In that instance, they from their POV *have* to play hardball, as in a negotiating strategy it's true, it doesn't work if it's bluster. Take Fisher's comments about not being death by a thousand cuts, but by three or four very, very seriously. In terms of the expense to them, throwing a bit more on funding this game of poker isn't much of an expense in the wider context, they might as well do that as not. But in a wider context negotiations don't work if you have a track record on not following through on them. SISU *cannot* back down, it makes no sense from their POV to do so having started this process.
They have a track record, and their track record once it gets to this stage is either package a company how they want it to, or wind it up as the negotiations (driven by their terms) push them to that. Deny that possibility and you deny the very essence of their existence, and their tactics.
The only hope is the hope that this 'business' should by rights have been liquidated already. We should have died long ago. The fact we haven't can only hint, ever so slightly, of an awareness football clubs ae more than a business. It's a slim hope though, and I wouldn't be betting my strategy on it.
You're all underestimating this end game if you think liquidation isn't on the cards. this *is* their endgame, this *is* their hedge, where they need to package the club for sale, and to get any kind of worthwhile return they need that package to be put together at less than the anticipated sale price.
In that instance, they from their POV *have* to play hardball, as in a negotiating strategy it's true, it doesn't work if it's bluster. Take Fisher's comments about not being death by a thousand cuts, but by three or four very, very seriously. In terms of the expense to them, throwing a bit more on funding this game of poker isn't much of an expense in the wider context, they might as well do that as not. But in a wider context negotiations don't work if you have a track record on not following through on them. SISU *cannot* back down, it makes no sense from their POV to do so having started this process.
They have a track record, and their track record once it gets to this stage is either package a company how they want it to, or wind it up as the negotiations (driven by their terms) push them to that. Deny that possibility and you deny the very essence of their existence, and their tactics.
The only hope is the hope that this 'business' should by rights have been liquidated already. We should have died long ago. The fact we haven't can only hint, ever so slightly, of an awareness football clubs ae more than a business. It's a slim hope though, and I wouldn't be betting my strategy on it.
duffer
Well-Known Member
Their track record in front of court isn't great though, is it? What with the High Court Judge challenging Joy's recollection etc. - there's one case they clearly didn't win.
There's no emotion in SISU's chase after money - if all other avenues are closed they'll sell to the highest bidder rather than take a loss just to spite someone. It's not Joy's money that being spent by them here, it's SISU's investors. It's not personal to them.
The key then, imho, is to keep up the pressure.
As a thought, if CCFC Ltd is liquidated then I think there is an obligation for a detailed investigation into the director's conduct. Not sure anyone involved with the club at the moment would fancy that.
DazzleTommyDazzle
Well-Known Member
I agree with the above, but my hope is that the underestimation may be on SISU's side.
Close down/liquidate the average company and you'll get some grief from the employees, perhaps a union if one exists, maybe a few suppliers - however a football club isn't the average company (in so many ways.....).
The publicity that is gradually building around the club is, in my opinion/hope, something different to what SISU will have faced before.
The logic of your post is that we must step up the media pressure, protests etc to try to keep our club in existence.
NorthernWisdom
Well-Known Member
Never take a one-off as general evidence.
You could also point to a company in France they attempted to turn around, failed... so embarked on a strategy of acquiring assets below value to give the company worth, and attempt further to turn it round.
They won some of those court cases, they nearly bankrupted the council in legal fees... and then having failed to turn around the company after all that, they had no option but to liquidate anyway.
A hedge fund's business model is about winning and losing, it's in their interests to take the small losses in the aim of the bigger profits. You can point to that court case all you like but, ultimately, it proves the point that the cost of the case is not in the equation, it's about betting on chance and probability. they don't always come off if you do that, so if they don't you take it on the chin and move on.
But whatever you do, do not in any way underestimate the potential consequences, as the potential consequences are death.
SkyBlueSwiss
New Member
Unlike a normal business, liquidation in football does not mean the end of a club.
There are provisions for Football Trusts to own the name and to restart a club. I am not familiar with how this works, but the Trust should know.
So do not be put off by the SISU/Fisher/Administrator threats of "Do it my way or we will liquidate you". It is an empty threat that would probably cost us a league or two but would not be the end of our club.
There are provisions for Football Trusts to own the name and to restart a club. I am not familiar with how this works, but the Trust should know.
So do not be put off by the SISU/Fisher/Administrator threats of "Do it my way or we will liquidate you". It is an empty threat that would probably cost us a league or two but would not be the end of our club.
NorthernWisdom
Well-Known Member
No, my logic is that's more likely to kill the club. Killing a football club might not be good emotional sense, but it certainly shows you should be listened to in future negotiations, never ever forget that. If you were an outsider, you'd say this is seriously beautiful negotiating tactics from SISU as what is there to do but voice outrage? Of course the club should stay in Coventry, and of course people should speak up and say that! But ultimately it will not solve the problem as the club either comes out of this packaged more healthily, or SISU come out of this serious in their intent
I honestly think the only way is for ACL to agree a deal. I don't even know if ACL are physically able to agree the deal that would be satisfactory to SISU, so I do not blame them if no deal can be agreed. I don't even know what else there is to go after, once ACL is dealt with, but I do urge the seriousness of the consequences to be thought of. This *is* what entities like SISU do, they think nothing of bringing down insitutions of far more significance and consequence than CCFC, we are but a mere pin prick.
So between a rock and a hard place, as I cannot back their very essence of what they are, but I can also hope they succeed, for my club's sake and it's very existence... but I can also hope ACL stand up to them now as I don't know where it will end after this particular battle.
NorthernWisdom
Well-Known Member
Anything can be restarted, but it's never the same.
As it is we have sleights of hand for years regardless. When Ltd was set up did we stop being Holdings fans and start cheering for Ltd? If Ltd is wound up are we closer to the essence of an original club by cheering on Holdings, the part that survives?
But once the break is made, it's made for some forever, as it's a simulation rather than the real.
That doesn't necessarily mean the end for a Coventry City, it doesn't necessarily mean that liquidation might not be the best option long term to get rid of the sorry mess. and if we go abroad they are more flexible in such things as the likes of Fiorentina and Napoli show, but this country has never tested one of its major intitutions going on that level. On the lower level there are many stories of revival abnd success, but in a week where Aldershot may die once again it isn't guaranteed.
And nor is that connection between past and present. it was fractured when we went to the Ricoh in the first place, it's been fractured a bit more in trying to leave the Ricoh, and all the time the strings holding those connections together fray a little bit more.
DazzleTommyDazzle
Well-Known Member
Then I guess that's where we differ.
I can't see any decent future for the club with SISU in charge - and if you re-read your last few entries, I'm not sure that you could either.
So in my view they need to go. What we have to do is make the "pain" of pursuing their current strategy too great - after all as you say, we are "but a pin prick".
I think that there has to be a maximum amount of adverse publicity / interest from MPs etc, that is worth taking for a "pin prick".
NorthernWisdom
Well-Known Member
I have never supported SISU. The laughable thing of joining up here were some of the more outlandish claims against me.
However, not supporting SISU also doesn't mean that they might have a point in certain areas, it doesn't mean that there aren't other cancerous intitutions with agendas contrary to the football club within there, it also doesn't mean that some of the alternatives posed to SISU would actually be far far worse in my opinion.
If this endgame works, the club will have a future. If this endgame is able to work is very possibly out the hands of many. All parties have to look very carefully at their moves however, and very carefully at whether it really is out their hands. If it is, so be it, but I'd like them to look.
DazzleTommyDazzle
Well-Known Member
duffer
Well-Known Member
Not quite following you here, sorry.
There seems to be the suggestion that SISU are some kind of geniuses when it comes to court action, and I'm making the point that it isn't entirely true. I think you're saying the same thing.
The one thing that anyone who has faced court action knows, is that the outcome is rarely a certainty (excepting that the lawyers always win!).
I'm also fairly certain that SISU's investors won't let them turn this into a personal matter either. Which I think is where I came in.
To be honest, I think the bigger risk for SISU is to let this end up in court, because that will throw a very bright spotlight onto the conduct of their directors. If they were going to lose everything, I don't doubt they'd do it in an instant though.
However, if there's a negotiated way out that might leave them with a few bob, I'd be surprised if they didn't consider it. The alternative is the groundshare/new stadium plan which clearly only works if you understand Tim-onomics.
There seems to be the suggestion that SISU are some kind of geniuses, full stop. However, what facts there are (including their own accounts) tells a different story. Recent investments have not been very smart and the value of their hedge fund has been in decline.
SISU got lucky once and have dined on that for the last half dozen years. This is about par for any hedge fund whose strategy is to deal with debt and distressed companies - they get lucky once but long term they generally prove to be a poor investment. This is true even for the well run and well funded ones and SISU are clearly a long way from being either.
Warwickhunt
Well-Known Member
Make it 8 league's and then you are talking
J
Jack Griffin
Guest
The fans are the club.. for instance Rangers are still Rangers, the liquidation & reformation are artificial barriers for the pedant to argue about.
If push comes to shove & CCFC are reformed then they'll still be CCFC to me.. & I'll still have all my memories.
If push comes to shove & CCFC are reformed then they'll still be CCFC to me.. & I'll still have all my memories.
