it guarantees nothing. august 3rd comes and we ko at the ricoh and fisher loses face quicker than the A team at a wife swap
Looks like its walsall (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Noggin
- Start date
yes I put the 2 fixture lists one each side of my screen and looked down comparing everyone before starting the thread.
I didn't compare everyone from last year I just looked until I found a date when both were at home at the same time which proved your post incorrect, that took about 2 seconds.
SkyblueBazza
Well-Known Member
Does it matter?
it's a 50% chance per game, not overall. the chance of a 50% event happening 23 times in a row is nearly 10 million to 1.
I'm a curious guy who enjoys learning, if I've made a mistake and someone can tell me how to do it better I'd like to know yeah.
yeah it's a good point, birminghams fixtures while still being quite different to ours, are much closer than you'd expect by chance. I still think this is is proof enough though to happily bet your mortgage that this means ccfc have told the football league our planned ground is walsall.
SkyblueBazza
Well-Known Member
Presumably therefore the Football League have been aware of and complicit in the Walsall / Sky Blues groundshare proposal for some time ie before the conclusion of the administration "process". This must have been so in order for the fixture computer to avoid clashes
So the FL who are supposedly considering Odious Entertainment as owners have already given de facto approval to their madcap scheme
So the FL who are supposedly considering Odious Entertainment as owners have already given de facto approval to their madcap scheme
But every team that are at home for the first game are away for the second and this trend continues for all season. For example all season we are always at home when crawley are away.
duffer
Well-Known Member
Actually, I stand corrected. Of last year's fixtures for those played on the same day, when Cov were at home, 15 times Walsall were also at home and 7 times they were away.
Apologies.
I'd wager before we entered Admin,but it doesn't mean it will happen.
RegTheDonk
Well-Known Member
THANK YOU Pricey.
Boys, its polcing/safety.
Look at Wolves - apart from when we play them, or either of us play Sheffield United, we our home/away fixtures are identical. What are the odds of that?
Coventry and walsall were at home at the same times last year on 14 occasions in the league, this year none. He is likely correct that policing plans makes my 10 million to 1 number flawed but it still doesn't change the fact that this result beyond reasonable doubt means the football league have planned for us to be playing in walsall.
RegTheDonk
Well-Known Member
Noggin, bearing in mind what Fishers plan is, then yes I agree. But this will be in the mix with the policing plan, to ensure the othe WM teams don't clash too heavily.
Astute
Well-Known Member
So this confirms we will either play our home games at Walsall or Crawley as our fixtures are both at odds of 10,000,000/1
No!! Look at every team that are at home for the opening game. We will always be playing away when they are at home.
Tbf, technically everything is a 50%, it either happens, or it doesn't
You must do well at school
ArchieLittle
New Member
Don't read too deep.
This is always a provisional fixture list, by the time TV rights, local issues and the weather get a look in then it will all change drastically.
This is always a provisional fixture list, by the time TV rights, local issues and the weather get a look in then it will all change drastically.
I suspect that there is a certain amount of wishful thinking in some of these posts. Looking at it objectively it is difficult to reach any conclusion other than the one that says we are playing at Walsall...
Question:- When (if) we begin the season at their ground and a miracle occurs courtesy of PHIV, Byng / Hoffman / the Saudi Royal Family / The Sultan of Brunei / the Duke of Westminster or whoever, are we allowed to change home ground mid-season?
Question:- When (if) we begin the season at their ground and a miracle occurs courtesy of PHIV, Byng / Hoffman / the Saudi Royal Family / The Sultan of Brunei / the Duke of Westminster or whoever, are we allowed to change home ground mid-season?
They are the same except for the 4 times when they arn't you are correct, it's clear that policing has a significant impact and my 10mill to 1 number was obviously wrong. However they are still exactly opposite and none of the other teams are like this and nore have we been like this in the past.
duffer
Well-Known Member
Noggin's right, I was wrong.
The majority of times last season, our home fixtures clashed.
Of course there is the complication of Wolves this year, and policing issues. Do Wolves/Walsall home fixtures clash?
My gut feel is that this isn't a conspiracy, and it isn't a done deal. But I suppose if SISU have said to the FL there's a strong chance we'll be ground sharing at Walsall, then they'd be daft to disregard it when planning the fixtures.
Doesn't cheer me up any, but I don't think it's all finished yet by a long way.
Thats not even close to being true, don't people take 30 seconds to check what they are saying before they say it? Its like you looked at 4 games and assumed that meant it was true for the entire season where as if you'd looked slightly further you'd see game 5,6,7,8, and 9 and many many more examples after all prove it wrong.
duffer
Well-Known Member
Actually, what really ticks me off (other than the financial stuff) is when was the last time we finished a season at home? Seems like ages. (I'm probably wrong about this, too).
I think the FL have always secretly hated us. Probably because we played in both the Third Division North and South.
I think the FL have always secretly hated us. Probably because we played in both the Third Division North and South.
James Smith
Well-Known Member
No no, Tim said it wasn't Walsall - so it isn't Walsall okay the fixtures people (and I think it's people) have just made an amazing home/away coincidence. I've decided to take everything Tim says as the truth, even the stuff that contradicts other stuff he says. :laugh:
They are very very similar (opposite) but not exactly opposite. It's clear policing is affecting that alot, they are only at home a couple of times at the same time.
Sorry, my bad, you put a wink too, it's just I have disagreed with nearly everything you have written over the last few months, so I assumed you were wrong again
RegTheDonk
Well-Known Member
Noggin, I agree with you re Walsall. I think we're getting all confused with random chance throwing up the fact that Walsall are the opposite to us. Its isn't random, I think that the FL, after consultation with Fisher, have factored in us playing at Walsall. What I'm saying is they will also have to factor in the local policing/safety issues, to ensure there aren't more than 3 local fixtures at any one time. On the few occasions where there are, I suspect some will be moved to a Friday night or Sunday afternoon.
Can you imagine if they allowed us, Wolves, Villa, Blues, and WBA to be at home the same day? The police couldn't cope. I belive teams ARE drawn randomly as to who they play, but weather or not they are at home then must then be looked at by the FL.
I would disagree on none have been like this in the past though - quite often I recall Blues and West Brom shaddowed our home/away games.
Not according to CWR,who quoted that a league spokesman had told them that CCFC have not yet confirmed a groundshare.If indeed that is true,it implies that the club have not yet got any agreement.However it now puts Walsall in a potentially very strong position to basically give CCFC a take it or leave it offer,knowing the club has now got very limited options.This is the one area where SISU are at the weakest,as they are totally reliant on the goodwill of other clubs.
antineorevolutionery
Member
Right...
If the games were drawn AT RANDOM, then 10 million to 1 odds are correct.
However, the way that the fixtures are worked is that teams are paired up so that one other team (in this case Walsall) will not have a single fixture clash all season (i.e. one is home whilst one is away).
Then there is a team that will only clash with us twice all season. Then a team that will clash with us four times. Then a team that clashes on six occasions... and so on and so forth until there is one team that is virtually home when we are all the time.
The league tries to divide this up geographically, so teams near each other are paired up. Problems can arise when teams are in different divisions (e.g. Sheff Wed and Sheff Utd are kept on alternate dates but are in different leagues), and also the issue with police force boundaries (West Midlands police will always keep Villa and Brum apart, and WBA and Wolves where possible. Which two does that leave? Coventry and Walsall).
To summarise, I would have expected Cov and Walsall to be apart for much of the season due to their proximity, but not every game. This makes me think that the club have requested Walsall as the club to never clash with, but this may have been as a contingency a few months ago when this looked like a viable alternative to the Ricoh.
I will repost this article, although I know it has done the rounds a few times, as it does give a greater insight into the intricacies of the English League fixture system:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulfletcher/2009/06/secrets_of_the_fixture_compute.html
This isn't a dig at Noggin btw, as your maths is spot on, but I think there's more to it than you think.
If the games were drawn AT RANDOM, then 10 million to 1 odds are correct.
However, the way that the fixtures are worked is that teams are paired up so that one other team (in this case Walsall) will not have a single fixture clash all season (i.e. one is home whilst one is away).
Then there is a team that will only clash with us twice all season. Then a team that will clash with us four times. Then a team that clashes on six occasions... and so on and so forth until there is one team that is virtually home when we are all the time.
The league tries to divide this up geographically, so teams near each other are paired up. Problems can arise when teams are in different divisions (e.g. Sheff Wed and Sheff Utd are kept on alternate dates but are in different leagues), and also the issue with police force boundaries (West Midlands police will always keep Villa and Brum apart, and WBA and Wolves where possible. Which two does that leave? Coventry and Walsall).
To summarise, I would have expected Cov and Walsall to be apart for much of the season due to their proximity, but not every game. This makes me think that the club have requested Walsall as the club to never clash with, but this may have been as a contingency a few months ago when this looked like a viable alternative to the Ricoh.
I will repost this article, although I know it has done the rounds a few times, as it does give a greater insight into the intricacies of the English League fixture system:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulfletcher/2009/06/secrets_of_the_fixture_compute.html
This isn't a dig at Noggin btw, as your maths is spot on, but I think there's more to it than you think.
I agree with all that, I was mistaken just using random chance. Regarding the last line though while I agree that in the past they have been similar , I can't see an example of them being exact before, admittedly not easy to check. 2011 when we were both in the championship Coventry's and Birminghams fixtures were very different, sometimes at home and the same time sometimes not.
http://www.statto.com/football/teams/birmingham-city/2011-2012/results
http://www.statto.com/football/teams/coventry-city/2011-2012/results
unfortunately previous years are much harder to compare than this year, it takes much longer, comparing this years takes seconds.
Thanks for that very interesting, I had already realised I was being way to simplistic but its good to have it explained like that ty.
BrisbaneBronco
Well-Known Member
Please Please guys - It ain't Walsall. Fisher said so at forums.
I would only bet on Ricoh or Nene Park
I would only bet on Ricoh or Nene Park
ccfcrob
Well-Known Member
Best line ever lol
