The bookies may well make Sunderland winning a foregone conclusion - haven't seen the odds - but the scenarios one way and another for both teams are so simple that the tie remains in the lap of the Gods.
Against Sheffield United this season at the SOL we set up as per last night and won 2 v 1 - again break away goals (from memory) by Isidor and Mayenda won it for us. What would happen if you score first is a moot point; but it's well known that once on the pitch the Sunderland players decide what the tactics are, game situation dependant.
For coventry you have a couple of things going for you in my opinion:
1. I noted last night the number of goals scored after 75 minutes - wouldn't be surprised too see a late goal - smash and grab finishes the tie emphatically; and
2. The number of headers you score is massive and has to be a worry - note you scored another one last night
The attendance, due to segregation restrictions, will probably be around 45k (ground holds circa 48k/49k) and I tried to cast my mind back to similar midweek games in front of 45k plus on Wearside in a cup tie situation, which is what this effectively is. From memory we have done ok and for example we played Sheffield Wednesday a couple of years ago in the SF of the play offs and won 1 v 0.
However for Coventry all you have to do is score after say 10 minutes and leave the winner until late on and thats a very simple manner of victory.
My worry if I were a Coventry fan would be the obvious one - Isidor and Mayenda. They have pace to burn. You saw Le Fee open up your defence with one pass for Isidor to score the first. He is a talented lad. O'Nein (roundly booed and discarded by the opposition) is the talisman for the team - huge in terms of team influence.
As I said last night I've watched football for 58 years (first match was 1967) and I've seen matches won and lost in all sorts of weird and wonderful ways; so I cant say there is any scenario that would surprise me on Tuesday.
Our recent home record is poor, but everyone (including me; ever the skeptic) asked the question last night of whether our recent record is more about taking the foot off the gas knowing that the play offs had been attained - and the answer looks like yes; so our recent record at home may count for absolutely nothing.
But the tie is very much alive and either of the sides could be celebrating a hard won victory on Tuesday. All both sides...and their supporters can do, is give it a go and see where life takes you.
Finally, please let's have none of this "Sunderland will be over confident" stuff. We aren't Liverpool and our history is littered with disappointments. Absolutely nobody on Wearside/County Durham is talking about foregone conclusions. Coventry still poses a considerable threat to us; particularly in the air.
Safe journey to those attending from Coventry.