Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (13 Viewers)

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David O'Day

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
You do seem obsessed with the daily figures and extrapolating stuff from them. You really can't do so - things could fluctuate quite significantly day to day.. Best thing to do is check them weekly and look for a trend in that data.
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Yeah you have to look at trends and if the increase is slowing. Also while death counts are always the headline geavmbbers new cases are just as if not more important

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Grendel

Grendel

Well-Known Member
Sick Boy said:
I have actually said nothing of the sort.
Flights were stopped coming in from China to here actually before other countries.

The sovereignty of Parliament is a fundamental principle of the UK constitution. Whilst Parliament has remained sovereign throughout our membership of the EU, it has not always felt like that.

Was this a lie?
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I asked about cross border travel in Europe
 
shmmeee

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
David O'Day said:
Yeah you have to look at trends and if the increase is slowing. Also while death counts are always the headline geavmbbers new cases are just as if not more important

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Problem with cases is it relies on severity and testing, deaths have nowhere to hide so should I’m theory be the most reliable measure.

Good numbers today TBH, gives me hope it’s slowing.
 
Ring Of Steel

Ring Of Steel

Well-Known Member
shmmeee said:
There’s undoubtedly a lot of noise, that’s why rolling averages are used in most of the graphs.
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yes, also when methodologies change the ups or downs then roll into the cumulative numbers, which then form part of the average, so you avoid any spikes even though one day may appear strange when taken in isolation. Someone was on about the France figures yesterday, don’t recall who, and it was pointed out then.

It’s the best method and it’s very good, hence why it’s become the de facto source of info for most people who know how to read it.
 
Ring Of Steel

Ring Of Steel

Well-Known Member
shmmeee said:
Problem with cases is it relies on severity and testing, deaths have nowhere to hide so should I’m theory be the most reliable measure.

Good numbers today TBH, gives me hope it’s slowing.
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looking more each day like Italy is at the peak, problem is it’s a fucking big hill
 
Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
Ring Of Steel said:
I know nothing about this but I always thought that the marks were on a curve, so a certain proportion would get certain grades- I know that’s how it works with accountancy/ tax/ treasurers exams?
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Problem with that is one year someone could get a lower grade but a higher mark than someone the following year due to a 'poorer' standard. Why I've preferred actual marks to grades etc.

Also give the percentage of high grades had consistently gone up over many years this can't have been the case. If it was proportional the percentage of A's/B's etc would be the same every year
 
shmmeee

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
Problem with that is one year someone could get a lower grade but a higher mark than someone the following year due to a 'poorer' standard. Why I've preferred actual marks to grades etc.

Also give the percentage of high grades had consistently gone up over many years this can't have been the case. If it was proportional the percentage of A's/B's etc would be the same every year
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Since the Gove reforms I believe at least in English they do essentially grade on a curve to ensure a similar number each year.

Thing is you do get hard and easy exam papers so some level of normalisation has to take place.

(Not checked thread assume we’re talking GCSEs)
 
shmmeee

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
Ring Of Steel said:
yes, also when methodologies change the ups or downs then roll into the cumulative numbers, which then form part of the average, so you avoid any spikes even though one day may appear strange when taken in isolation. Someone was on about the France figures yesterday, don’t recall who, and it was pointed out then.

It’s the best method and it’s very good, hence why it’s become the de facto source of info for most people who know how to read it.
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It’s almost like the guy who’s entire job is data visualisation knows a thing or two about how best to visualise data.
 
Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
Ring Of Steel said:
There used to be quite a rivalry when I was at KH8, a few of the 'rugger buggers' would posture and make bold claims about being the 'hardest' while out at the pub on a Friday (the 'old Wheats' was it?), then a bunch of Wiseman or Tile Hill Wood would show up and the rugby guys would go real quiet, real fast.
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They were scared of the girls?
 
Ring Of Steel

Ring Of Steel

Well-Known Member
Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
They were scared of the girls?
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lol, scared of the boys and awestruck at the girls, who were very ‘different’ to what they were used to. All a bit isolated from the real world, they were friends I guess but only cause they’re who I went to school with.

A fair few of them became wasps fans when they pitched up in town, never spoke to them again after that.
 
Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
Ring Of Steel said:
lol, scared of the boys and awestruck at the girls, who were very ‘different’ to what they were used to. All a bit isolated from the real world, they were friends I guess but only cause they’re who I went to school with.

A fair few of them became wasps fans when they pitched up in town, never spoke to them again after that.
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Tile Hill Wood was all-girls until a few years ago when it merged with Woodlands. Think it got some new name after though.
 
Ring Of Steel

Ring Of Steel

Well-Known Member
Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
Tile Hill Wood was all-girls until a few years ago when it merged with Woodlands. Think it got some new name after though.
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They’re all a bit of a blur to me now to be honest. The one I do remember clearly was Woodlands, they used to terrorise the Henrys boys- late 80s & very early 90s this would have been.
 
Grendel

Grendel

Well-Known Member
Sick Boy said:
Coming from the guy who’s tried to spread far right lies and fake news hahaha
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What I’m astonished at is you are so slavishly supporting the Italian government. If Johnson and his government claimed 2,000 deaths in a small town were down to this virus and yet the town had 5,000 more deaths than march last year you would accept this? Why are you constantly believing the Italian official government line?
 
Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
Ring Of Steel said:
log scale was always right, the smarter amongst us knew that.
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It is useful for trends, but as with all things it shouldn't be used in isolation. The raw figures are also needed to highlight that even if trends look good the actual raw figures are still quite startling.

And you also need to highlight that countries are recording and testing differently and are also different in terms of density etc.

Ultimately this data will only prove of real use further down the line when this is over and it can be analysed and people also break it down with other factors. It will also need breaking down regionally in each country to highlight what things have made a big differences in cases/deaths. ie you'd expect urban areas to be much more afflicted per head of population and the larger/more dense the city the worse it will be.
 
Ring Of Steel

Ring Of Steel

Well-Known Member
Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
It is useful for trends, but as with all things it shouldn't be used in isolation. The raw figures are also needed to highlight that even if trends look good the actual raw figures are still quite startling.

And you also need to highlight that countries are recording and testing differently and are also different in terms of density etc.

Ultimately this data will only prove of real use further down the line when this is over and it can be analysed and people also break it down with other factors. It will also need breaking down regionally in each country to highlight what things have made a big differences in cases/deaths. ie you'd expect urban areas to be much more afflicted per head of population and the larger/more dense the city the worse it will be.
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I think worldmeters is about the best place for the raw figures.
 
Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
Ring Of Steel said:
They’re all a bit of a blur to me now to be honest. The one I do remember clearly was Woodlands, they used to terrorise the Henrys boys- late 80s & very early 90s this would have been.
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I was there early-mid 90's. Some hard buggers and we had an excellent rugby and footy team.
 
Sick Boy

Sick Boy

Well-Known Member
Grendel said:
What I’m astonished at is you are so slavishly supporting the Italian government. If Johnson and his government claimed 2,000 deaths in a small town were down to this virus and yet the town had 5,000 more deaths than march last year you would accept this? Why are you constantly believing the Italian official government line?
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I’m not slavishly supporting them, a few days ago I called them a shambles but I don’t own a tinfoil hat like you. You actually voted for and blindly back Johnson’s government and its figures are not going to be any more accurate.

The government here was slow to react but had since made up for it. Each residence has had PPE delivered and from tomorrow everyone has to wear them in public.

As I said, you’re the one who has slavishly lapped you and spread far right lies and even tried to spread some bizarre story about Russian troops, you don’t have a lot of credibility here.

Great attempt at deflection away from the shambles in the UK though.

Oh yeah, and the civil protection service does the reporting and co-ordinates the country’s response to disasters.
 
Ring Of Steel

Ring Of Steel

Well-Known Member
Sick Boy said:
I’m not slavishly supporting them, a few days ago I called them a shambles but I don’t own a tinfoil hat like you. You actually voted for and blindly back Johnson’s government and its figures are not going to be any more accurate.

The government here was slow to react but had since made up for it. Each residence has had PPE delivered and from tomorrow everyone has to wear them in public.

As I said, you’re the one who has slavishly lapped you and spread far right lies and even tried to spread some bizarre story about Russian troops, you don’t have a lot of credibility here.

Great attempt at deflection away from the shambles in the UK though.

Oh yeah, and the civil protection service does the reporting and co-ordinates the country’s response to disasters.
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When you say PPE, what has been delivered- masks & gloves or something?
 
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