Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (15 Viewers)

shmmeee said:

Not everyone will get their predicted grades though. Read the email from AQA I posted, though it’s still to be worked out it’s clear there’s a more stringent moderation process with exam boards being the ones giving out the grades. It’s not a case of everyone gets what’s on their uni application forms.

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It’s still a minefield due to subjectivity - I’m glad I’m not a teacher

shmmeee said:

There’s two questions I guess: economically I’d guess they can continue it indefinitely. The biggest blocker on the economy would be the uncertainty. Let’s say we knew it was going to be three months: sound, let the government run up the debt to get everyone through intact. If it’s ten years: sound, let the economy readjust so bar men become delivery drivers and so on. As it is people don’t know whether to permanently shift resources to optimise to the new situation. Id be surprised if it took years to sort a test for immunity (which is when we can start allowing people permanently out of lockdown and will come before a vaccine) so I expect the government to be able to see us through should the will be there.

Which brings me to the second question: how long can they sustain it politically? That’s a tough one. Extreme measures? Probably not more than a month or so at a time I reckon. Moderate measures a bit longer if people see the need. Again it’s uncertainty that’ll be the killer. People want to know so they can set expectations and it could be god forbid the death toll is high and the public back whatever it takes, could be we manage it so well people ask what’s the point?

Many many people are going to fall through the cracks here but there will be opportunities for work in shadier areas like haulage and delivery restaurants and warehouses. It’s why I’d like to see something more of a final social safety net to catch them and all the others whose situations don’t fit neatly into the traditional employment roles.

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I think in order to stagger the infections and stop everyone getting cabin fever it will be relaxed every so often and then retightened.

Things with that are that there will then be people not understanding the strategy saying why are we continuity doing this - if we have to keep bring it in it's clearly not working and people will start ignoring advice, esp the longer it continues.

The second is when to retighten. Chances are if you wait to see cases going up chances are it's too late and the infection rate will have risen too high already. But try and second guess it and you may not get enough infections and it'll need staggering for even longer.

In terms of infection rates it'd be better to bring the restrictions too early and prolong the outbreak but thats the one most likely to result in people stopping following advice (and also arguably cost them more politically as people will see it as incompetence in the strategy)

Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:

I think in order to stagger the infections and stop everyone getting cabin fever it will be relaxed every so often and then retightened.

Things with that are that there will then be people not understanding the strategy saying why are we continuity doing this - if we have to keep bring it in it's clearly not working and people will start ignoring advice, esp the longer it continues.

The second is when to retighten. Chances are if you wait to see cases going up chances are it's too late and the infection rate will have risen too high already. But try and second guess it and you may not get enough infections and it'll need staggering for even longer.

In terms of infection rates it'd be better to bring the restrictions too early and prolong the outbreak but thats the one most likely to result in people stopping following advice (and also arguably cost them more politically as people will see it as incompetence in the strategy)

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This is why the lack of a universal testing strategy or resources worries me. Surely if you’re trying to judge this with such fine margins you want as close to an accurate real time picture of infection levels around the country? Maybe we lock down and build up capacity for when we reopen? Or do you just guess based on NHS capacity?

Nick said:

That's my worry. Stuck in work or home for months without being able to play football or go boxing whilst eating crap.

That alone will make people ill both mentally and physically.

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I think reality is now hitting home.

I feel it for those without a garden or those who live in a small place. And also for those who live alone. And all because of the idiots that wouldn't listen to advice.

shmmeee said:

You’ll have to ask him mate. I think there’s been lots of confusion with the different terms “isolation” “distancing” “lockdown” “quarantine” all used interchangeably at points.

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No. I constantly asked questions that bever got answered by him. Then he would go in the attack yet again.

Just like when I kept asking how long lockdown should last. Or what would happen if we hid then when we came out again and the virus came back each time.

No misunderstanding. More like reality has hit home.

shmmeee said:

This is why the lack of a universal testing strategy or resources worries me. Surely if you’re trying to judge this with such fine margins you want as close to an accurate real time picture of infection levels around the country? Maybe we lock down and build up capacity for when we reopen? Or do you just guess based on NHS capacity?

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Which is what I was saying days ago and several disagreed.

SBT can be a strange place sometimes.

clint van damme said:

let the GIFs commence!

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Somefucker summarize the last four pages please......or slow the fuckdown a bit yeah?

Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:

I think in order to stagger the infections and stop everyone getting cabin fever it will be relaxed every so often and then retightened.

Things with that are that there will then be people not understanding the strategy saying why are we continuity doing this - if we have to keep bring it in it's clearly not working and people will start ignoring advice, esp the longer it continues.

The second is when to retighten. Chances are if you wait to see cases going up chances are it's too late and the infection rate will have risen too high already. But try and second guess it and you may not get enough infections and it'll need staggering for even longer.

In terms of infection rates it'd be better to bring the restrictions too early and prolong the outbreak but thats the one most likely to result in people stopping following advice (and also arguably cost them more politically as people will see it as incompetence in the strategy)

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I'm just glad some agree with me at last.

If we would have hid from it we would have been in the same situation when we got back 'to normal'.

The way forward seems ti be keep the infection rate to what the NHS can cope with. Then hope that they can come up with a vaccine ASAP. The longer this goes on the worse it will get.

Grendel said:

It’s still a minefield due to subjectivity - I’m glad I’m not a teacher

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All marking is subjective ultimately. That’s the point of standardisation and moderation. And no arguments there, I’m glad I’m not a teacher every day.

better days said:

I've been having some pretty serious treatment over the past couple of years at various NHS sites
Every letter begs you to attend and says it costs the NHS £167 per missed visit
So many users don't bother coming as they put their own convenience ahead of the pressure their missed appointments put on the staff
You see patients in gowns outside the hospital in wheelchairs smoking a fag while holding up a mobile drip
Others at A&E turning up with period pain or wanting paracetamol for a headache
They are usually the same individuals who abuse the doctors and nurses when it's explained that this is not what A&E is for
The NHS is fantastic but when you spend time on the inside it's an eye opener
That's why I don't see it as a political issue
Whichever party is in power won't change some people's behaviour

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With talk like that...you're beginning to make me think that you're not actually Mark Robin's after all...

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Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:

I think in order to stagger the infections and stop everyone getting cabin fever it will be relaxed every so often and then retightened.

Things with that are that there will then be people not understanding the strategy saying why are we continuity doing this - if we have to keep bring it in it's clearly not working and people will start ignoring advice, esp the longer it continues.

The second is when to retighten. Chances are if you wait to see cases going up chances are it's too late and the infection rate will have risen too high already. But try and second guess it and you may not get enough infections and it'll need staggering for even longer.

In terms of infection rates it'd be better to bring the restrictions too early and prolong the outbreak but thats the one most likely to result in people stopping following advice (and also arguably cost them more politically as people will see it as incompetence in the strategy)

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This is the strategy SBD. I think it’s in the imperial report. There are two ends to this, vaccine or eventual herd immunity, via the suppression and then loosening of measures, followed by measures again (I don’t want to consider the third)

The key in the meantime appears to be the test that would confirm if you’ve had corona (not just if you’ve got it). If they can get this into circulation (and it’s found that you can’t subsequently infect post recovery or unlikely catch it again) then gradually more and more of the population can operate normally.

A lot of ifs and buts in there but from what the chief medical/scientific officers are saying that’s as good as it gets at the moment (in conjunction with finding drugs that better combat the virus - which will also be discovered no doubt)

We thinking any vaccine will be mandatory ?

cc84cov said:

We thinking any vaccine will be mandatory ?

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Not sure you can force it on people but youd have to be pretty brain dead to refuse it.

Nick said:

Yeah, also Paddington on the bench

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Ha ha! Saw that. Said to the wife 'look at that wierdo...oh...oh...look....Paddington as well....'

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The Great Eastern said:

Not sure you can force it on people but youd have to be pretty brain dead to refuse it.

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Yet people still will because of some nutjob crap they've read on the internet.

Grendel said:

It’s still a minefield due to subjectivity - I’m glad I’m not a teacher

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I’m glad your not too

David O'Day said:

Yep dom we own the means of production now. Wd still need tomhelp,people on zero hours contracts, who are self employed or work in the gig economy as all they seem to be getting is ssp.

Also bare in mind the people likely to lose their jobs are in the hospitality sector and these people are likely to be shift workers on zero hours contracts.

It is still also loans which would only help with deferred income not lost income.

There is nothing to stimulate demand either.

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Theres still some in the hospitality sector that may lose their jobs and are not on zero hours contracts.

Mortgage to pay, mouths to feed.

Shit is getting real.

Still, the family is healthy. That's the main thing at the moment.

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usskyblue said:

Somefucker summarize the last four pages please......or slow the fuckdown a bit yeah?

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Don’t worry. This thread will be turned into a book in 2022

David O'Day said:

A 4 quid day saver? Not everyone buys coffees mate.

Clueless once again

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I spend between £50-£100 week on fuel. I claim some back as business mileage but dont think that £4 daily saver and a mocha latte from Costa is an average...

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The Great Eastern said:

Not sure you can force it on people but youd have to be pretty brain dead to refuse it.

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Mmr

SkyBlueDom26 said:

Another 6 thousand cases in Italy! Fucking mad there that’s frightening

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Yeah it’s terrible and Spain is very bad as well, I can’t believe what’s going on in the UK.

cc84cov said:

We thinking any vaccine will be mandatory ?

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If it is safe for the vulnerable to take then they should be first. The vast majority of the rest of us will be OK. Do it around the globe for the vulnerable and then look at the rest. As it would be a new vaccine it would take time to get enough for everyone.

Sick Boy said:

Yeah it’s terrible and Spain is very bad as well, I can’t believe what’s going on in the UK.

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Have they come out with any plan on isolating the elder members of families? I have always admired the closeness of families in Italy but this is one time it has had consequences that I know of.

How us it where you are? How us your partner's family?

Pub is rocking tonight, last night of freedom

Grendel said:

The source is someone I know who works in admissions. They operate the 135 rule. It’s a real concern that the grades required for admission are awarded - what then? It’s also a massive concern that many universities need overseas students or they face bankruptcy - so first choices see a situation where all uk students are offered the grades - then it’s oversubscribed by an enormous amount and the second choice preference is ignored and starts begging for places. It’s a nightmare for them

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My wife works in Uni admissions at Uni of Portsmouth. Offers are based on predicted grades anyway and only confirmed once exam results are in.

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ccfchoi87 said:

Pub is rocking tonight, last night of freedom

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And first day of the virus for many. Exactly the reason why lockdown will happen.

ccfchoi87 said:

Pub is rocking tonight, last night of freedom

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I just hope everyone doesn’t pop back to see their mums for Mother’s Day !

The Great Eastern said:

Not sure you can force it on people but youd have to be pretty brain dead to refuse it.

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Depends what’s in it where’s the historic proof a vaccine doesn’t do more harm than good later on,I bet there will be huge numbers who don’t have it.

I think the government paying 80% of wages will make it more cost effective for a lot of the remaining non essential retail shops to close rather than stay open. Dorothy Perkins has decided to close all their stores from tonight for a start.

Astute said:

Have they come out with any plan on isolating the elder members of families? I have always admired the closeness of families in Italy but this is one time it has had consequences that I know of.

How us it where you are? How us your partner's family?

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At the moment the country has been on lockdown for a couple of weeks and for the most part it’s being taken seriously compared to before but over this week 40,000 have been caught out for no valid reason and fined.

There is no plan to isolate the elderly but everyone is supposed to stay at home and only go into the shop closest to where you live (alone). The problem is that the hospitals and ICUs are so stretched that treating people is being done based on their age.

In Bergamo the army were out transporting coffins as there is now nowhere to keep them, it’s beyond depressing.

Apparently they think we are approaching the peak but Verona could be one of the next hotspots as there has been a sudden increase in cases and deaths here too.

My partner and her family are doing ok thanks for asking. She is currently very stressed working in the hospital and she often has to stay at her parents’ due to where her job is based (up in the mountains) and her dad has vetro high blood pressure so is considered high risk, especially due to her job.

Technically she isn’t supposed to do her journey but has been doing it but it looks like they’ve got more restrictions coming in which would make it even more risky for her to travel, so it’s all a bit shit really.

The lockdown is currently due to end on the 3rd April but I reckon the 2nd May is more realistic.

My worry is Spain though as from what I can tell it has the possibility of ending up worse than here. Seeing

Seeing it from the outside it seems the UK is heading towards a tragedy, I’m genuinely very worried about it. I admit that I was not taking the situation seriously a month ago but after this year people there should be taking it seriously and the government trying to protect its people more.

My friend past away last week funeral is 10 people only and the wake will now be off.

cc84cov said:

Depends what’s in it where’s the historic proof a vaccine doesn’t do more harm than good later on,I bet there will be huge numbers who don’t have it.

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What’s in it will be the same as every other vaccine: an inactivated version of the virus it vaccinated against.

Has there ever been a vaccine with long term side effects?

shmmeee said:

What’s in it will be the same as every other vaccine: an inactivated version of the virus it vaccinated against.

Has there ever been a vaccine with long term side effects?

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Plenty online regarding vaccinations mate I’ve always looked into the ingredients of them some of the stuff is strange,I know a girl who had the cervical cancer jab & still caught it & died.

Sick Boy said:

At the moment the country has been on lockdown for a couple of weeks and for the most part it’s being taken seriously compared to before but over this week 40,000 have been caught out for no valid reason and fined.

There is no plan to isolate the elderly but everyone is supposed to stay at home and only go into the shop closest to where you live (alone). The problem is that the hospitals and ICUs are so stretched that treating people is being done based on their age.

In Bergamo the army were out transporting coffins as there is now nowhere to keep them, it’s beyond depressing.

Apparently they think we are approaching the peak but Verona could be one of the next hotspots as there has been a sudden increase in cases and deaths here too.

My partner and her family are doing ok thanks for asking. She is currently very stressed working in the hospital and she often has to stay at her parents’ due to where her job is based (up in the mountains) and her dad has vetro high blood pressure so is considered high risk, especially due to her job.

Technically she isn’t supposed to do her journey but has been doing it but it looks like they’ve got more restrictions coming in which would make it even more risky for her to travel, so it’s all a bit shit really.

The lockdown is currently due to end on the 3rd April but I reckon the 2nd May is more realistic.

My worry is Spain though as from what I can tell it has the possibility of ending up worse than here. Seeing

Seeing it from the outside it seems the UK is heading towards a tragedy, I’m genuinely very worried about it. I admit that I was not taking the situation seriously a month ago but after this year people there should be taking it seriously and the government trying to protect its people more.

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Hope you're right for Italy SB, do worry they won't be able to rein it in now
Prey I'm wrong on that.