General Election 2019 thread (2 Viewers)

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lifeskyblue

lifeskyblue

Well-Known Member
Brighton Sky Blue said:
YouGov's latest MRP polled over 100,000 people. I could understand if the polls were showing within margin of error or even 5% but none of them have. Time to face facts Corbyn should never have agreed to this election.
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Corbyn was bounced into the election and only agreed in the end cos that numbskull Swinson and wee Nicola thought it was in their parties’ interests and broke ranks with Labour. Swinson I think has got it spectacularly wrong and Sturgeon I don’t believe will wipe out the tories north of the border.


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SkyBlueDom26

SkyBlueDom26

Well-Known Member
Hopefully brexit party don’t fuck up the leave votes, love Nigel but he should pull out of some marginals that the conservatives could win
 
Liquid Gold

Liquid Gold

Well-Known Member
Brighton Sky Blue said:
YouGov's latest MRP polled over 100,000 people. I could understand if the polls were showing within margin of error or even 5% but none of them have. Time to face facts Corbyn should never have agreed to this election.
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There are some interesting assumptions behind that data though. They are projecting 18-30 turnout to be well below 2017 levels and 65+ turnout to be higher than any time since the early 60s.
 
lifeskyblue

lifeskyblue

Well-Known Member
Farage showed what a coward he really is by caving in to the demands of tories and his own rich backers. The positive aspect of this is I believe his spineless campaign has ended his political career and influence.


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NorthernWisdom

NorthernWisdom

Well-Known Member
lifeskyblue said:
Corbyn was bounced into the election and only agreed in the end cos that numbskull Swinson and wee Nicola thought it was in their parties’ interests and broke ranks with Labour. Swinson I think has got it spectacularly wrong and Sturgeon I don’t believe will wipe out the tories north of the border.
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It'd have been far more sensible to let Johnson own his deal for a bit.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
lifeskyblue said:
Corbyn was bounced into the election and only agreed in the end cos that numbskull Swinson and wee Nicola thought it was in their parties’ interests and broke ranks with Labour. Swinson I think has got it spectacularly wrong and Sturgeon I don’t believe will wipe out the tories north of the border.


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I really think Swinson will lose her seat. Sturgeon will not flip enough of those pro-Brexit Scots who she alienates more by the day.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
Liquid Gold said:
There are some interesting assumptions behind that data though. They are projecting 18-30 turnout to be well below 2017 levels and 65+ turnout to be higher than any time since the early 60s.
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Because the timing would seem to support the former assumption.
 
chiefdave

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
SkyblueBazza said:
Fact is IF she was just trying to be first to report for her own ego she needs to be put through the mill. IF she is found to be deliberately breaching the rules she deserves to have the rulebook (coz it's no doubt humongous) thrown in her smug face & be dismissed
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There is no way any journalist, let alone one of her experience and seniority, doesn't know you can't do what she did. You can't even report on exit polls until after all voting ends.
 
Grendel

Grendel

Well-Known Member
chiefdave said:
There is no way any journalist, let alone one of her experience and seniority, doesn't know you can't do what she did. You can't even report on exit polls until after all voting ends.
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What law has she broken?
 
Grendel

Grendel

Well-Known Member
Ian1779 said:
Don’t think you’ll find anyone that says he will get a majority.... but then he doesn’t need one.
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There is little chance Corbyn will be allowed to stay in office in a minority government - Swinson will call the shots
 
chiefdave

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
fernandopartridge said:
The methodology they use isn't necessarily reflective of the electorate. I've said a Tory majority of <10. I've never met anybody who has been polled.
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Brighton Sky Blue said:
YouGov's latest MRP polled over 100,000 people. I could understand if the polls were showing within margin of error or even 5% but none of them have.
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Mentioned this last night but the weightings they are using seem way off to me. This tweet shows it well.

A 65% youth turnout last time dropping to 52% this time while the pensioner vote increases 10-15% seems off to me. Could be significant as those two age groups are the ones who largely support one party, the youth vote going to Labour and the pensioner vote to Conservative.

Given how tight some of the marginals are, a 1% swing can equate to 10 seats or even in some circumstances as many as 20 seats, either or both of those turnout predictions being wrong and the actual turnout being nearer the level of the last election could make a huge difference.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
chiefdave said:
Mentioned this last night but the weightings they are using seem way off to me. This tweet shows it well.

A 65% youth turnout last time dropping to 52% this time while the pensioner vote increases 10-15% seems off to me. Could be significant as those two age groups are the ones who largely support one party, the youth vote going to Labour and the pensioner vote to Conservative.

Given how tight some of the marginals are, a 1% swing can equate to 10 seats or even in some circumstances as many as 20 seats, either or both of those turnout predictions being wrong and the actual turnout being nearer the level of the last election could make a huge difference.
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Labour has a majority for anyone under the age of 40. Reasons on a postcard
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
Grendel said:
has she been arrested?
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1*UPwnSRr5ujBqkZlLDGv88A.gif
 
Grendel

Grendel

Well-Known Member
Brighton Sky Blue said:
Labour has a majority for anyone under the age of 40. Reasons on a postcard
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because most are gullible and when reap the benefits of capitalism vote Tory - your 75 year old Tory voter now was banning the bomb back in the day
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
Grendel said:
because most are gullible and when reap the benefits of capitalism vote Tory - your 75 year old Tory voter now was banning the bomb back in the day
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I'm earning comfortably above the average salary but still won't vote for them. How many 0s need to be in my pay packet before I change?
 
covmark

covmark

Well-Known Member
Brighton Sky Blue said:
I'm earning comfortably above the average salary but still won't vote for them. How many 0s need to be in my pay packet before I change?
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And this is the issue with politics in this country. People entrenched in their voting habits.
You're basically saying you'd never ever vote Tory, no matter your personal situation.

I live in John Glens constituency. There is not a cat in hells chance he will lose. So what's the fucking point in me voting. (I will be voting btw)

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chiefdave

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
covmark said:
I live in John Glens constituency. There is not a cat in hells chance he will lose. So what's the fucking point in me voting. (I will be voting btw)
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Most people could say the same. Lets face it unless you live in one of a handful of marginals you might as well not bother voting.
 
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