Transfer Rumour Interesting stats on the start of the season. (1 Viewer)

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stupot07

stupot07

Well-Known Member
Saw this on twitter this morning from Sideways Sammy, thought it was an interesting analysis, albeit you can only beat what's in front of you, and we've played some good side that just havent started well. But some interesting discussion points.

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Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk
 
bawtryneal

bawtryneal

Well-Known Member
What a load of old nonsense !!

You can make statistics read anything you so choose

Completely irrelevant for first 5 or 6 games !!
 
Esoterica

Esoterica

Well-Known Member
Bristol Rovers were clearly an organised, decent team when we played them but they were in the bottom 4 at the time because they'd played Wycombe and Blackpool before us. Didn't think that result got the credit it deserved. Seems the old cliche of the league table not settling down until 10 games in is true for that.
 
harvey098

harvey098

Well-Known Member
Esoterica said:
Bristol Rovers were clearly an organised, decent team when we played them but they were in the bottom 4 at the time because they'd played Wycombe and Blackpool before us. Didn't think that result got the credit it deserved. Seems the old cliche of the league table not settling down until 10 games in is true for that.
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I thought Rovers were terrible. Don’t remember them having a decent chance?
 
edgy

edgy

Well-Known Member
Don't like this. It just seems to be trying to justify a cautionary view on the start of our season.

This this football. Weve had a fantastic start and should be delighted. Celebrate beating bottom of the League just the same as beating top of the League.

3 points are 3 points and no-one will give a fuck who we got them against in May.
 
Esoterica

Esoterica

Well-Known Member
harvey098 said:
I thought Rovers were terrible. Don’t remember them having a decent chance?
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They didn't create much, aside from the Tom Davies header that was disallowed. They weren't terrible though - they lacked some creativity and JCH was clearly not match fit after missing the start of the season, whereas we used the ball and width very well that day without creating that much ourselves (hence the relief when Kastaneer scored).
That was my point though, they'd had a difficult start to the season - missing their main striker, lacking a bit of confidence having not yet won a game at that point. Since then they've P7 W4, D2, L1 and are up to 8th, having not lost at home yet. According to the above stats they count as a bottom 4 team, which they clearly are not.
 
harvey098

harvey098

Well-Known Member
Esoterica said:
They didn't create much, aside from the Tom Davies header that was disallowed. They weren't terrible though - they lacked some creativity and JCH was clearly not match fit after missing the start of the season, whereas we used the ball and width very well that day without creating that much ourselves (hence the relief when Kastaneer scored).
That was my point though, they'd had a difficult start to the season - missing their main striker, lacking a bit of confidence having not yet won a game at that point. Since then they've P7 W4, D2, L1 and are up to 8th, having not lost at home yet. According to the above stats they count as a bottom 4 team, which they clearly are not.
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Yeah, fair points.
 
shmmeee

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
Said in the other thread I’m not sure about that methodology at all, Philosoraptors method, while still flawed, seems infinitely better at judging relative quality and seems to fit with gut feel better.
 
Samo

Samo

Well-Known Member
Means nothing; you can only beat what's in front of you. Anyway... I've heard for many years that we struggle against the easier sides and beat the better teams, so judging by that the rest of the season should be a doddle right? :D
 
fernandopartridge

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
Esoterica said:
Bristol Rovers were clearly an organised, decent team when we played them but they were in the bottom 4 at the time because they'd played Wycombe and Blackpool before us. Didn't think that result got the credit it deserved. Seems the old cliche of the league table not settling down until 10 games in is true for that.
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Likewise Oxford a decent side
 
fernandopartridge

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
shmmeee said:
Said in the other thread I’m not sure about that methodology at all, Philosoraptors method, while still flawed, seems infinitely better at judging relative quality and seems to fit with gut feel better.
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We also started against Southend which must rank lowly in the table alphabetically
 
C

ccfchoi87

Well-Known Member
fernandopartridge said:
We also started against Southend which must rank lowly in the table alphabetically
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But have since proven that they belong lower than their alphabetical standing. I think it’s obvious we’ve had an easier start than most. I’m still delighted with our points total and you can only beat what’s in front of you. People are right to be cautious though.
 
Sky Blue Pete

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
stupot07 said:
Saw this on twitter this morning from Sideways Sammy, thought it was an interesting analysis, albeit you can only beat what's in front of you, and we've played some good side that just havent started well. But some interesting discussion points.

74e7fbffe4e05581e7867aab8c20cdc8.jpg
4e041976504aa292a931e7dafb6065a2.jpg
af57d469ee95bc7afe57f0ba69be15ce.jpg
81c3432a488413f304b0c927c5c4e065.jpg


Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk
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It is self fulfilling a bit that those at the top win more and those near the bottom don’t. Good bit of work though
 
peace ndlovu

peace ndlovu

Well-Known Member
It’s a statistical impossibility for lots of winning teams to be at the top of this table.
The reason why us, Ipswich, Wycombe, Fleetwood and Sunderland are all towards the bottom of this table is that those clubs have been winning, whereas a lot of their opponents have not.
It stands to reason when you think about it. The outlier here, admittedly is Doncaster...
Also, if you can deduce anything meaningful from this, it doesn’t look good for Tranmere, who are 6th from bottom after playing opponents deemed to be ‘easy’ at the time of their matches
 
tisza

tisza

Well-Known Member
too early for these stats to be that relevant.
You've got the side in 17th only 6 pts of the play-off spots.
Sides can move up or down 6 or 7 places depending on their last result .
 
Gazolba

Gazolba

Well-Known Member
We usually do poorly against the bottom sides, so the fact we've been doing well against them must mean we've improved.
However, it's still too ealy in the season to draw conclusions based on results so far.
Give it another 10 games.
 
shmmeee

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
Gazolba said:
We usually do poorly against the bottom sides, so the fact we've been doing well against them must mean we've improved.
However, it's still too ealy in the season to draw conclusions based on results so far.
Give it another 10 games.
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considering the stats being posted in the Mowbray thread, maybe another 20-odd
 
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