An Interesting Read Regarding Predictions (1 Viewer)

Liquid Gold

Well-Known Member
So statistically we only need a small upturn in form to be favourites for 2nd. New players coming in and players coming back to fitness should see to that
 

stupot07

Well-Known Member
Brilliant. Where is it?

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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk - so please excuse any spelling or grammar errors :)
 

Skybluebenno

New Member
I thought it was an interesting way of interpreting form. Never really seen it done this way before.

For me the most surprising thing was how far it had Burton ahead of the chasing pack. Nearly a 70% chance of them finishing in the top 2.

But with regards to us, doesn't really throw anything new up. A small up-turn in form could see us clinch a top 2 spot... would be nice, wouldn't it?!
 

Gazolba

Well-Known Member
All of these predictions are based on past results. But there are so many uncertainties about the future and many reasons it may not replicate the past. Changes in manager, players, injuries, suspensions, loans ending etc. etc. What we do know is that the play-offs are a lottery you are unlikely to win. So we need to do our utmost toward automatic promotion. I'd like to see us aim to be Champions.
 

Gazolba

Well-Known Member
we want the bookies software models , they are never far wrong

It's not that they are never wrong, it's that they fix the odds so over time they make a profit. It's the same principle as a gambling casino. You win just enough, to keep you going, but over time losses outweigh wins.
 
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Gazolba

Well-Known Member
It should be possible to come up with a computer program that 'invents' its own prediction theories then applies each one to every game that has been played in the season to evaluate their accuracy. It would do this thousands of times making small adjustments to the algorithm until it finally determined which was the most accurate predictor. Of course this would be an ongoing process which would need to be rerun after every set of games. Maybe the bookies have already done his and have the perfect algorithm.
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
All of these predictions are based on past results. But there are so many uncertainties about the future and many reasons it may not replicate the past. Changes in manager, players, injuries, suspensions, loans ending etc. etc. What we do know is that the play-offs are a lottery you are unlikely to win. So we need to do our utmost toward automatic promotion. I'd like to see us aim to be Champions.

Not completely correct. You have a 25% chance in the playoffs. If you finish 3rd or 4th you have a slightly higher chance
 

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