The loss of Dovin was a massive hammer blow. If you were to look for one particular reason for our struggles this season, Dovin's absence, forced or otherwise, is it.
By definition, it can't be "must win" if a draw and other results going our way mean we get there. There's no such thing as a right to a play-off place - get the requisite points tally and we're in.
That's the inherent unfairness of the play-off system, created to provide more entertainment and generate more cash, which it undoubtedly does. You'd still feel a bit cheesed off finishing third, miles ahead of the chasing pack.