Championship thread 25/26! (26 Viewers)

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covcity4life

covcity4life

Well-Known Member
Ipad Boro said:
Conversely, I don't think they have what can be described as having a "good chance of the playoffs" at all. I think they have a very slim chance indeed (which of course is better than no chance)

The reason being that they're 12 points off them with 17 games to go. Now if it was just a case of them chasing down 1 side, with a 12 point advantage when their performances and results were a lot better, then sure, they'd have a good chance.

But they're not. Firstly, I'll rule out the sides from 5th upwards in terms of who makes way for Norwich. All in good form currently and it would take their form going through the floor for the Canaries to make up the 16 point deficit.

Now the main issue; they're not chasing down one side, but several. Derby are 12 points ahead and while their form is hot and cold, they're capable of a good run and performances. Wrexham are also in excellent form too, with a decent squad to boot. 11 points ahead. Watford, hot and cold tbh, but still a good 10 point gap. Plus of course all the others ahead of them now.

Now don't get me wrong. Norwich may continue this awesome form and they're clearly a side to respect since Manning got given his cards. They're formidable opponents for us today, with good reason. But I just don't see THAT many decent sides currently in and around the playoffs ALL have their respective forms nosedive, for the majority of the remaining games.
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Not good chancejust saying I think they can get he tib playoff picture thats all

Outside bet or dark horse, whatever you wanna call it
 
Brighton Sky Blue

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
Potbellypig said:
I have no idea what the rule is but based on common sense, it shouldn't be a red card, imo. Leaburn is slow, Thomas would have covered easily, so feels harsh. If it's taken on face value then he was clear through on goal.
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In real time I thought the red was justified, but I’m baffled why that was given and the one Charlton did against us in the penalty area wasn’t even a foul.
 
Ipad Boro

Ipad Boro

Well-Known Member
Lamps said:
Derby, who are in 6th, are only averaging 1.5 points a game. If Norwich win today they will only be 9 points behind them with 16 games to go. There's normally a side that comes out of the pack. If they keep this run going they will move up the table quickly. They have a good manager and a good squad. I'm just glad they had such a poor start.
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Quite true.

However Derby are just one side. If Derby were in 6th and Norwich 7th, but 12 points behind them with a game in hand, then I'd agree with you. But that's not the case.

Mathematically you could even argue that they were 50% likely to overtake Derby, it wouldn't make much of a difference. You'd also have to say that Wrexham, in better form than Derby atm and games even with Norwich, were 45% likely of dropping enough points to be below Norwich's final total. Watford would be more generous, given how they've gone off comparatively. 65% or almost 2/3 likely to drop enough points for the Canaries to jump them.

Then you have to look at it cumulatively, taking each side into account. 65% of 45% of 50% is....14.6%.

And that's a simplistic view, their actual chances of getting in the top 6 would be less than 10% I'd imagine, when taking all the other teams in their way's chances into account. Which isn't what I'd call a "good chance."
 
Johnnythespider

Johnnythespider

Well-Known Member
Here's the picture, miles away from the player clearing the ball.andcstill goes through to stamp on his foot
PXL_20260131_131212135.jpg
 
Lamps

Lamps

Well-Known Member
Ipad Boro said:
Quite true.

However Derby are just one side. If Derby were in 6th and Norwich 7th, but 12 points behind them with a game in hand, then I'd agree with you. But that's not the case.

Mathematically you could even argue that they were 50% likely to overtake Derby, it wouldn't make much of a difference. You'd also have to say that Wrexham, in better form than Derby atm and games even with Norwich, were 45% likely of dropping enough points to be below Norwich's final total. Watford would be more generous, given how they've gone off comparatively. 65% or almost 2/3 likely to drop enough points for the Canaries to jump them.

Then you have to look at it cumulatively, taking each side into account. 65% of 45% of 50% is....14.6%.

And that's a simplistic view, their actual chances of getting in the top 6 would be less than 10% I'd imagine, when taking all the other teams in their way's chances into account. Which isn't what I'd call a "good chance."
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I'm not disagreeing with you. As I said earlier it wouldn't surprise me if they made it into the top 6. This isn't me predicting it. Other clubs could go on a run as well. I just can't see another side able to go on a long run like Norwich. If they manage to win 5 out of the next 6 again they will be in with a big shout but don't have time to waste.
 
Mcbean

Mcbean

Well-Known Member
I’m afraid we need them to turn out against our nearest competition - Ipswich and Middlesboghorror - they will get a points deduction- not enough in my opinion but enough to keep them away - they have some quality and if they go completely to shit 💩 it won’t help us
 
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